Jan 2025 SCOTUS 2A decisions/updates thread

[ilikegunspdx]

Edit: the Fox News report posted in another thread is wrong. It appears both AWB and mag ban case are both still alive. Will post updates here as they come from mark smith only. News sources can't be trusted (duh, right?) Next conference is scheduled for Jan 17.

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[CamoDeafie]

View: https://youtu.be/OCuMLjp3oHw?si=I2gOK07rzB3JO0Ib








Mark Smith on the two denied cases and the remaining two 2A cases (Snope v Brown and Ocean State Tactical v Rhode Island)



In short, we have until Jan 17th and Jan 24th before we declare no 2A cases taken up by SCOTUS for this term.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Snopes (AWB) docket

Docket for 24-203

www.supremecourt.gov

 

[CamoDeafie]

The one denied cert is related to Maryland's handgun licensing scheme. Edit; this case is "Maryland Shall Issue V Moore"; and is very much related to M114/HB3075 regarding license to purchase firearms.

Supreme Court declines to step into Maryland gun licensing and Hawaii climate change suits

The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge to Maryland’s handgun licensing regime, as well as a pair of cases seeking to hold oil and gas companies responsible for damage caused by clim…

www.scotusblog.com

 

[ilikegunspdx]

The one denied cert is related to Maryland's handgun licensing scheme

Supreme Court declines to step into Maryland gun licensing and Hawaii climate change suits

The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge to Maryland’s handgun licensing regime, as well as a pair of cases seeking to hold oil and gas companies responsible for damage caused by clim…

www.scotusblog.com

Ah so the fox article was full of bubblegum. Thanks!

Supreme Court makes decision on gun law challenges in Delaware, Maryland

The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear challenges to gun laws in Delaware and Maryland.

www.foxnews.com

That's flipping fantastic news!

 

[CamoDeafie]

Ah so the fox article was full of bubblegum. Thanks!

Supreme Court makes decision on gun law challenges in Delaware, Maryland

The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear challenges to gun laws in Delaware and Maryland.

www.foxnews.com

Whoever was reporting for Fox didn't know that there's actually two different Maryland 2A cases and assumed the more newsworthy one (AWB/mag ban Snope v Brown) got denied cert?

 

[Member 86767]

The more we watch their crap, the more they get paid, and re-posting, whether it be correct or not, is free advertising for them.

 

[Stomper]

F the MSM.... ALL of them.

 

[titsonritz]

F the MSM.... ALL of them.

with a big rubber d….

 

[ilikegunspdx]

No decisions today on whether to grant cert or not for the AWB (Snope) or Mag ban (Ocean state tactical) cases. Next conference is Jan 24 so we'll have a decision either then or Jan 27 at the very latest. They are still alive.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Let's recap things

3 Justices consistently against 2A;
Jackson, Kagan and Sotomayor.

2 Justices consistently for 2A,
Alito and Thomas

3 Justices may be 2A, may be neutral
Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh

1 Justice (and the Chief at that); inconsistent record on 2A; tends to be considered the swing vote on many issues, 2A included. Yep, Roberts.

All the anti2A Justices group need is for Roberts plus any one of the 3 remaining neutrals (Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh), to swing to their side to make a 5-4 case against 2A and set back State gun rights again.

But the two consistently pro2A Justices need to have all three of the neutrals (Again, Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh) voting pro2A to ensure that Roberts wouldn't be able to have a slim majority.

Perhaps this is why they haven't granted cert on the two 2A cases; Alito and Thomas just can't be confident that they'll be able to get 3, hopefully 4 votes on their side, while the anti2A Justices just can't be sure that they'll be able to get Roberts plus any one of the three to vote their way?

 

[quneur]

Kavanaugh was involved in the Heller vs DC case on the 2A side. Gorsuch seems to me to be a straight up Constitutionalist. Barrett is the similar to Roberts as they seem to be on the side of, 'Let the State decide' even if its in the Constitution.

 

[CamoDeafie]

View: https://youtu.be/fLIgn5eVUCc?si=QM07770nartIz1o4


Looks like we don't get to have 2A cases in front of SCOTUS for this term which ends June 2025.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

View: https://youtu.be/fLIgn5eVUCc?si=QM07770nartIz1o4


Looks like we don't get to have 2A cases in front of SCOTUS for this term which ends June 2025.

Since they didn't deny cert today, looks like we will hear for sure on Jan. 27 what it's going to be. I bet the 3 D judges were going freaking ape for them to not take this case. They don't want anything decided until there is a D majority in the future. That's the strategy the lower courts like CA 9th are going for. Delay delay delay.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Since they didn't deny cert today, looks like we will hear for sure on Jan. 27 what it's going to be. I bet the 3 D judges were going freaking ape for them to not take this case. They don't want anything decided until there is a D majority in the future. That's the strategy the lower courts like CA 9th are going for. Delay delay delay.

They didn't grant Cert today to these two cases. Meaning there's two possibilities. One. Deny Cert by 27th; with a heck of dissents one way or other.

The other, next term conference. Not quite dead but just less likely to be decided soon.

Ain't just these three Justices going ape crazy; it's very likely Roberts and one other (Barrett?) who's waffling and wishy-washy on 2A and just not committed yet to these 2A cases for whatever reasons.

 

[Member 86767]

Tyrants no matter the directional arrow, cannot abide an armed society.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Tyrants no matter the directional arrow, cannot abide an armed society.

And yet there are 29 States with Constitutional/permitless Carry as of 2025.

 

[CamoDeafie]

None of these 29 States as far as I can tell, have AWBs or mag restrictions, or any other anti2A laws. Edit, so there's literally no "circuit split" that'd drive SCOTUS to make decisions on. But that also may hurt 2A in long run because there is that contention mainly from the other States that "States have powers and rights not delegated to Fed Govt, therefore under the 14th Amendment, 2A didn't apply to States before Heller"

 

[Loc]

What it signals to me is that a majority of SCOTUS justices want semiautomatic rifle and mag capacity bans, and they're getting them by making it clear to their colleagues in conference of their position. The minority will not risk a nationwide ban by granting cert and having 5 justices decide exactly that based on what one state is doing (Maryland in the Snopes case).

 

[CamoDeafie]

What it signals to me is that a majority of SCOTUS justices want semiautomatic rifle and mag capacity bans, and they're getting them by making it clear to their colleagues in conference of their position. The minority will not risk a nationwide ban by granting cert and having 5 justices decide exactly that based on what one state is doing (Maryland in the Snopes case).

So.... When the Districts dealing with AWB suits are all the same anti2A districts, with no pro2A districts having anything of the sort to produce a circuit Court split to force the issue... what then? How can we ensure that State level AWBs and mag bans go away?

Edit. Having a pro2A President (not necessarily Trump but his appointees have generally been a bit more for 2A than against) appoint more 2A Justices in more Federal Circuits?


And again, it does seem like more than one of the "conservative" Justices are in favor of allowing State level gun control laws to stay in place for whatever reasons?