People are not buying guns.....

[IronMonster]

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-08-27/gun-sales-are-down

http://www.businessweek.com/article...n-and-the-obama-gun-bubble-is-bursting#r=read

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[orygun]

Sales went thru the roof after Sandy Hook. Even "slowing down" doesn't mean that sales are low.

 

[IronMonster]

I was more interested in the huge drop in the stock prices of various manufactures. I know that the sky is not falling and as far as historical averages go we are still selling more guns than ever. But the 42% drop in Ruger shares and S & W down 34% is a much better indicator of a soft market than the lingering adds for what seem to be reasonable prices on NWFA.

 

[Joe13]

I believe there are a lot more used guns available then ever. Many of which were built to last many lifetimes. Some of them are even valued more by some because they are "all metal and wood" vs the plastic synthetic stuff seen more often in recent years.

That alone will put a huge dent in the new gun market.

 

[The Heretic]

First, for the stock market, this is pretty typical; they punish a stock for not meeting their expectations - even though the corp is profitable and met their projections - so you can imagine how much they punish a stock for dropping revenue.

Second, yes, there is quite possibly a glut. A lot of people went out and bought, both guns and ammo, in a panic, at high prices. There comes a point where people get all the guns they want (much less need) and their willingness to pay inflated prices tapers off.

Then there is the fact that a lot of these people bought on credit and they only have so much credit, so they maxed out their debt instruments and can't buy anymore.

The next thing you can expect to see, come about XMas, is some of these people selling off these guns. At first they will probably ask prices above retail because that is what they bought them at, then as they get increasingly desparate, they are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

(Ten points if you know what movie that came from).

I've seen this a number of times. Y2K - AWB - Obama being elected - most every mass shooting. As the article said, what the gun manufacturers need is a new call for a gun ban - what they didn't say, because they were wise enough not to - is that calls for gun bans come after mass shootings, so they were really saying was that what gun manufacturers need is a mass shooting.

Ammo will follow - there is just more momentum that needs to fall away, and it will fall away slower because:

1) People will shoot up some of that ammo.
2) It is less expensive than a new gun.
3) It is easier to sneak in past the wife - what's another box of ammo on top of the ten you already have?

But it will work itself out.

Guns and bullets - not a bad business to be in.

 

[elsie]

First, for the stock market, this is pretty typical; they punish a stock for not meeting their expectations - even though the corp is profitable and met their projections - so you can imagine how much they punish a stock for dropping revenue.

Second, yes, there is quite possibly a glut. A lot of people went out and bought, both guns and ammo, in a panic, at high prices. There comes a point where people get all the guns they want (much less need) and their willingness to pay inflated prices tapers off.

Then there is the fact that a lot of these people bought on credit and they only have so much credit, so they maxed out their debt instruments and can't buy anymore.

The next thing you can expect to see, come about XMas, is some of these people selling off these guns. At first they will probably ask prices above retail because that is what they bought them at, then as they get increasingly desparate, they are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

(Ten points if you know what movie that came from).

I've seen this a number of times. Y2K - AWB - Obama being elected - most every mass shooting. As the article said, what the gun manufacturers need is a new call for a gun ban - what they didn't say, because they were wise enough not to - is that calls for gun bans come after mass shootings, so they were really saying was that what gun manufacturers need is a mass shooting.

Ammo will follow - there is just more momentum that needs to fall away, and it will fall away slower because:

1) People will shoot up some of that ammo.
2) It is less expensive than a new gun.
3) It is easier to sneak in past the wife - what's another box of ammo on top of the ten you already have?

But it will work itself out.

Guns and bullets - not a bad business to be in.

"Trading Places"

And basically, the bubble burst. There's a lot of stock out there and there will likely be a lot of un-used/lightly-used ones on the market as well. And in who knows how long, they'll start showing up in "buy backs".

Might be a good time to buy. B-)


elsie

 

[JedB]

The next thing you can expect to see, come about XMas, is some of these people selling off these guns. At first they will probably ask prices above retail because that is what they bought them at, then as they get increasingly desparate, they are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

(Ten points if you know what movie that came from).

Trading places. Sell, Mortimer.... Sell!!!!!!

 

[RVTECH]

Some of them are even valued more by some because they are "all metal and wood" vs the plastic synthetic stuff seen more often in recent years.

Yep - saw this coming long ago - the 'Plastic synthetic stuff' was an artificial increase in value - but with out any support base - kind of like what happened to dot.com companies. When the 'artificial' market falls only the 'brick and mortar' are left - but in this case 'metal and wood'

 

[TheGameMaster]

I'll believe we are in a "slow down", once I see 22lr ammo on the shelves at Bi-mart, and staying on the shelves for more than a week.

As it is, its still hard to get the reloading components one wants, let alone needs, at the local Bi-mart or Sportsman's Warehouse or Fishermans. Its sorta came back online at places like midway, midsouth, and nacheez. But who wants to pay $30 hazmat fees? Northwest Armory, Keith's Sporting Goods, The Gun Broker, Money Market Pawn, Guns Right Here, and TJ Gun sales, all told me that gun sales are going well. Competition for small compact handguns is fierce. So it hasn't slowed down much here in the Portland metro area. Though they did tell me that supply of more popular models and brands has started to catch up. But some models they can't keep in the store for more than a few hours. Maybe nation wide its slowed down. I could see that happening in places that have a "range drought", like in heavy urban areas. But out here in the west with all the places to shoot and many gun clubs open to new members, it will probably keep growing. We have too many "urban" outdoormen. Even our biggest cities here in the northwest (Seattle/Tacoma, Spokane, Yakima, Tri-Cities, Portland/Vancouver, Eugene, Bend, Boise) aren't anything close to resembling the urban blight of Detroit, Chicago, LA, or NYC. Our "big cities" look like suburbs with a small "downtown" core with a few token "sky scrapers" (if you can call 40 stories a "sky scraper"). Portland has more "green space" then some of the national forest areas. It is really a stretch to call a city like Auburn or Medford "urban". Our love for all things out of the house, naturally turns to being armed and shooting stuff. Unless your ideology prevents you from "evolving" into an outdoors men, you will eventually pick up a gun or eight .

Rodney

 

[AMProducts]

We're just in the other end of the economic swing... being in the ammo industry, I've seen a huge slowdown this year. Last year sales were brisk, and because my costs didn't increase with the panic, I kept prices low and cleaned up on the quantity. This year, I've done very little direct sales.

It's just the market, it'll straighten itself out a bit soon. The thing I'm really starting to watch drop is all the people who got into the ammo biz in the last year or two who are now selling that $60K ammoload because they can't make the payments to the bank. They likely got it, and were never able to get powder or primers enough to make any money. It's unfortunate, but the axiom holds true: How do you make a million dollars in the gun industry? Start with two!

 

[coyote223]

Just wait, you know the number one gun salesman in America has another half baked plan to stimulate gun sales again. Also, hitlary seems to think gun control is a winning strategy for her bid,,,

 

[RVTECH]

Seattle/Tacoma, Spokane, Yakima, Tri-Cities, Portland/Vancouver, Eugene, Bend, Boise

Please take Bend out of this list - It has gotten stupid over the last several years but does NOT deserve to be grouped with the rest of these places, especially Seattle or Eugene.

 

[bellarum]

Once "that guy I didn't vote for" starts sending guns and ammo to the "sandbox" for aid; we'll be right back to "where did everything I just saw go?" I'm never comfortable with any amount of ammo I have. I had a friend of mine call me the other day that just bought a 10/22. He says "Hey I just bought a 10/22.....where do I get ammo?" I replied "depends on how bad you need it" My son wants to build an AR. I told him to buy ammo first: then build it.

 

[PDXSparky]

Sadly, the guns I am most interested in buying were made in the first half of 1986 or earlier, and they cost a lot. A cheap one would be $5k and what I want is in the $11k to $16k range.

 

[gunfreak]

I think folks are still buying guns, they are just doing it from private parties instead of retail.