Powder Shortage Of 2024. Real or Hype?

[Camelfilter]

A bit of powder on the shelf at our local BiMart yesterday. Didn't take note of what, nor pricing.

What I found interesting was they had a decent amount of primers. 6+ bricks of Fiocchi small rifle. Price per sleeve = $9.49, which is $.063 per primer (Fiocchi are 150/sleeve). Not bad for retail, still.

A bunch of CCI small pistol on the shelf PLUS a few cases not unpacked. Winchester & Remington also. All these $8-$11/sleeve, iirc.

Some LG rifle, no LG pistol.


Plus: ammunition displayed out on a pallet. Mixed display 12g, 9mm & .223. By the case. **Hadn't noticed that in our area in a long while.**

 

[nammac]

When I was in sportsman's on 185th the other day they had a decent supply of powder. Some long time favorites were missing, w231, Bullseye, Unique, Red Dot and Blue Dot, not to mention HP-38.

Several bricks of primers, Fiocchi, Federal and CCI. Can't remember the last time I seen Winchester primers.

 

[arakboss]

If a powder shortage really does materialize, I expect primers will become much more abundant. It takes a lot of powder to load up a brick's worth of rifle primers.

 

[Saladfarmer]

If a powder shortage really does materialize, I expect primers will become much more abundant. It takes a lot of powder to load up a brick's worth of rifle primers.

Half pound'll do 1k 9 give or take depending on bullet.... Everybody panic now and buy primers!

 

[arakboss]

Half pound'll do 1k 9 give or take depending on bullet.... Everybody panic now and buy primers!

Maybe my math skills are failing me.

 

[Camelfilter]

Maybe my math skills are failing me.

1lb = 7,000 grains.

Your math skills are fine. Rifle uses a bunch more powder...

 

[Saladfarmer]

yeah.. doing cowboy math...
mostly 9mm.. 3 to 3.5 grains with a heavier projo.... 3500 grains to 1k rounds... larger case pistol and 300AAC subs around 800 round per pound or l;ess.
Around 300 rounds to a pound of powder for most short action rounds. and it goes up (or down really) quickly from there..
We live the math on every powder drop. I try to shoot the heaviest projo I can to save on powder

 

[billdeserthills]

The Great Powder Shortage of 2024 Is Said To Be Imminent. Many importers & manufacturers' are claiming that nitrocellulose, a core component of gunpowder that originates from the cotton plant in China, is facing a shortage.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a highly flammable compound that's a mixture of nitric esters of cellulose. It's made by treating cellulose with a mixture of sulfuric and nitric acid. Cellulose is the main substance in the walls of plant cells, helping plants to remain stiff and upright. In 1833, M. Braconet, of Paris, made the discovery that starch, sawdust and cotton wool, when treated with concentrated nitric acid, became very inflammable, taking fire at a temperature of 356 Fah., but were not really explosive. This invention remained merely as a chemical curiosity until 1846, when Professor Schonbein, of Vienna, made the discovery of rendering cotton explosive by the use of sulphuric acid combined with the nitric.

According to industry insiders, allegedly the shortage is a direct result of China refusing to sell nitrocellulose to Western nations or Europe & Only supplying Russian Interests.


While doing our own independent research this seem to be tracking with what we have seen in the past months with the Russian Side of the current Eastern Conflict over in Ukraine. Despite international sanctions aimed at restricting Moscow's wartime production, Russia has significantly increased its imports of nitrocellulose – a crucial explosive compound essential for production of gunpowder

According to a Wall Street Journal report, citing trade data, these imports have surged by 70% in 2022, the year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and by mid-2023, they had reached 3,039 tons, almost double the level of 2021.

The surge in Russian nitrocellulose imports comes at a time when defense companies worldwide are struggling to secure this vital material due to a shortage, leading to price hikes and production bottlenecks. Nitrocellulose, primarily used in munitions, faces strict international trade regulations, limiting its production to only a few countries

In April 2024 Members of Congress announced legislation to prod the Biden administration to conduct an inventory of the U.S. gunpowder supply chain and offer suggestions to ensure enough will be available for the military and the average consumer.

Sen. James E. Risch, Idaho Republican, and Rep. Tom Emmer, Minnesota Republican, are leading the effort. They said law-abiding Americans could struggle to get ammunition amid a global crunch of nitrocellulose.

Few nations produce nitrocellulose. Thailand, China and India are considered the most significant players. The U.S. is a net importer.​

The problem lies with both supply and demand. The Russia-Ukraine war has created a massive sinkhole for munitions, and China has tightened its supply.

In the U.S., gun aficionado websites lit up in January after an ammunition dealer said he was at a firearms industry show and learned that nitrocellulose was in short supply.

The consensus was that China was reluctant to sell to the U.S. because so much of the supply was being pumped into munitions for Ukraine. Defense industry manufacturers are scarfing up much of the supply reaching the U.S.


Rumors were circulating in March on message boards about an overheard conversation with a Hodgdon, an ammo manufacturing company, Rep, and an AZ ammo purchaser.

Hodgdon had also given the same warning, independent of what Vista Outdoors (Alliant) had said over 3 months ago. But the Hodgdon rep had more details about how/why the shortage was expected. According to that Hodgdon rep, the cellulose used in making the nitrocellulose base of powders comes primarily from Ukraine. The chaff (stalks and straw from the processing of wheat, corn, sunflowers and other agricultural products harvested and processed in Ukraine) resulting as waste product from harvested crops is pound for pound the cheapest cellulose fiber available on the world market. Cheaper than sawdust or other traditional cellulose industrial sources. What little agricultural chaff available for nitrocellulose production still exists is being prioritized for routing to the European/NATO propellant manufacturers still being funded and contracted for the war effort. With Republicans now phuking with the Ukraine support mission, the supply is no longer available to us. U.S. propellant manufacturers have to now domestically source new cellulose suppliers. That isn't difficult;…there is plenty of cellulose to be had right here at home. But it is more expensive.

These findings have left us with a pretty concrete theory that we WILL be seeing a rise in the cost, and price of ammunition to the U.S. Consumer. Now, we don't wanna be seen as "fear-mongering" but there is definitely going to be change in the market, and we would hate to say we told you so.

 

[arakboss]

The Great Powder Shortage of 2024 Is Said To Be Imminent. Many importers & manufacturers' are claiming that nitrocellulose, a core component of gunpowder that originates from the cotton plant in China, is facing a shortage.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a highly flammable compound that's a mixture of nitric esters of cellulose. It's made by treating cellulose with a mixture of sulfuric and nitric acid. Cellulose is the main substance in the walls of plant cells, helping plants to remain stiff and upright. In 1833, M. Braconet, of Paris, made the discovery that starch, sawdust and cotton wool, when treated with concentrated nitric acid, became very inflammable, taking fire at a temperature of 356 Fah., but were not really explosive. This invention remained merely as a chemical curiosity until 1846, when Professor Schonbein, of Vienna, made the discovery of rendering cotton explosive by the use of sulphuric acid combined with the nitric.

According to industry insiders, allegedly the shortage is a direct result of China refusing to sell nitrocellulose to Western nations or Europe & Only supplying Russian Interests.


While doing our own independent research this seem to be tracking with what we have seen in the past months with the Russian Side of the current Eastern Conflict over in Ukraine. Despite international sanctions aimed at restricting Moscow's wartime production, Russia has significantly increased its imports of nitrocellulose – a crucial explosive compound essential for production of gunpowder

According to a Wall Street Journal report, citing trade data, these imports have surged by 70% in 2022, the year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and by mid-2023, they had reached 3,039 tons, almost double the level of 2021.

The surge in Russian nitrocellulose imports comes at a time when defense companies worldwide are struggling to secure this vital material due to a shortage, leading to price hikes and production bottlenecks. Nitrocellulose, primarily used in munitions, faces strict international trade regulations, limiting its production to only a few countries

In April 2024 Members of Congress announced legislation to prod the Biden administration to conduct an inventory of the U.S. gunpowder supply chain and offer suggestions to ensure enough will be available for the military and the average consumer.

Sen. James E. Risch, Idaho Republican, and Rep. Tom Emmer, Minnesota Republican, are leading the effort. They said law-abiding Americans could struggle to get ammunition amid a global crunch of nitrocellulose.

Few nations produce nitrocellulose. Thailand, China and India are considered the most significant players. The U.S. is a net importer.​

The problem lies with both supply and demand. The Russia-Ukraine war has created a massive sinkhole for munitions, and China has tightened its supply.

In the U.S., gun aficionado websites lit up in January after an ammunition dealer said he was at a firearms industry show and learned that nitrocellulose was in short supply.

The consensus was that China was reluctant to sell to the U.S. because so much of the supply was being pumped into munitions for Ukraine. Defense industry manufacturers are scarfing up much of the supply reaching the U.S.


Rumors were circulating in March on message boards about an overheard conversation with a Hodgdon, an ammo manufacturing company, Rep, and an AZ ammo purchaser.


These findings have left us with a pretty concrete theory that we WILL be seeing a rise in the cost, and price of ammunition to the U.S. Consumer. Now, we don't wanna be seen as "fear-mongering" but there is definitely going to be change in the market, and we would hate to say we told you so.

I guess if I add to my powder stock there won't be much harm if the shortage doesn't pan out. I doubt prices are going lower, regardless of whether a shortage occurs or not.

 

[Camelfilter]

The Great Powder Shortage of 2024 Is Said To Be Imminent. Many importers & manufacturers' are claiming that nitrocellulose, a core component of gunpowder that originates from the cotton plant in China, is facing a shortage.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a highly flammable compound that's a mixture of nitric esters of cellulose. It's made by treating cellulose with a mixture of sulfuric and nitric acid. Cellulose is the main substance in the walls of plant cells, helping plants to remain stiff and upright. In 1833, M. Braconet, of Paris, made the discovery that starch, sawdust and cotton wool, when treated with concentrated nitric acid, became very inflammable, taking fire at a temperature of 356 Fah., but were not really explosive. This invention remained merely as a chemical curiosity until 1846, when Professor Schonbein, of Vienna, made the discovery of rendering cotton explosive by the use of sulphuric acid combined with the nitric.

According to industry insiders, allegedly the shortage is a direct result of China refusing to sell nitrocellulose to Western nations or Europe & Only supplying Russian Interests.


While doing our own independent research this seem to be tracking with what we have seen in the past months with the Russian Side of the current Eastern Conflict over in Ukraine. Despite international sanctions aimed at restricting Moscow's wartime production, Russia has significantly increased its imports of nitrocellulose – a crucial explosive compound essential for production of gunpowder

According to a Wall Street Journal report, citing trade data, these imports have surged by 70% in 2022, the year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and by mid-2023, they had reached 3,039 tons, almost double the level of 2021.

The surge in Russian nitrocellulose imports comes at a time when defense companies worldwide are struggling to secure this vital material due to a shortage, leading to price hikes and production bottlenecks. Nitrocellulose, primarily used in munitions, faces strict international trade regulations, limiting its production to only a few countries

In April 2024 Members of Congress announced legislation to prod the Biden administration to conduct an inventory of the U.S. gunpowder supply chain and offer suggestions to ensure enough will be available for the military and the average consumer.

Sen. James E. Risch, Idaho Republican, and Rep. Tom Emmer, Minnesota Republican, are leading the effort. They said law-abiding Americans could struggle to get ammunition amid a global crunch of nitrocellulose.

Few nations produce nitrocellulose. Thailand, China and India are considered the most significant players. The U.S. is a net importer.​

The problem lies with both supply and demand. The Russia-Ukraine war has created a massive sinkhole for munitions, and China has tightened its supply.

In the U.S., gun aficionado websites lit up in January after an ammunition dealer said he was at a firearms industry show and learned that nitrocellulose was in short supply.

The consensus was that China was reluctant to sell to the U.S. because so much of the supply was being pumped into munitions for Ukraine. Defense industry manufacturers are scarfing up much of the supply reaching the U.S.


Rumors were circulating in March on message boards about an overheard conversation with a Hodgdon, an ammo manufacturing company, Rep, and an AZ ammo purchaser.


These findings have left us with a pretty concrete theory that we WILL be seeing a rise in the cost, and price of ammunition to the U.S. Consumer. Now, we don't wanna be seen as "fear-mongering" but there is definitely going to be change in the market, and we would hate to say we told you so.

Is this you or your companies writing, or a cut & paste from a source. If a source, please note such...

 

[billdeserthills]

Is this you or your companies writing, or a cut & paste from a source. If a source, please note such...

It's cut & paste from tactical bubblegum.com
the filter won't print the s h i t part...

 

[Alexx1401]

I guess if I add to my powder stock there won't be much harm if the shortage doesn't pan out. I doubt prices are going lower, regardless of whether a shortage occurs or not.

NOTHING is going to be getting "cheaper" as long as we have the kind of inflation we have now. As long as people are not buying during a panic they are not going to find things like powder a year or two from now at great savings. As always though preaching to the quire. Most who got caught off guard this last time got caught times before and will learn nothing.

 

[arakboss]

American Reloading powder is selling out nearly as fast as they list it.

 

[Saladfarmer]

American Reloading powder is selling out nearly as fast as they list it.

faster actually
. I think people are hugging the sight pretty hard rn
I'm not even getting notifications on out of stock items that come in stock, then see the general announcement of "powder on stock" I go as soon as it posts and it's already gone.

 

[arakboss]

China’s nitrocellulose exports to Russia soar since invasion of Ukraine - media

 

[spookshack]

The Ripple Effects of Global Conflicts on Ammo Shortages - Target Sports USA

Explore the significant impact of global conflicts on ammunition shortages. Learn how military demand affects civilian ammo availability, including the challenges faced by gun enthusiasts, hunters, and industry professionals. Discover coping strategies for the ongoing shortages.

blog.targetsportsusa.com

 

[arakboss]

Thanks to a heads up from @padraig I was able to score a jug of mystery powder (similar to Accurate 2700) from American Reloading. They still have a half dozen or so left. Works out to about $27 a lb shipped. It is probably temp sensitive, so be aware of that.

MP 570 Smokeless Rifle Powder - 8 Lbs - American Reloading

24" 6.5 Creedmoor Reference Data Case - Sellier & Bellot Projectile - 140gr Sierra MatchKing Charge - 42gr (Max; Reduce starting charge by 10%) Velocity - 2715 f/s

americanreloading.com

 

[JuglansRegia]

The powder shortage for Alliant is real.

 

[arakboss]

Nitrocellulose Market Size, Share & Growth Report, 2030

The global nitrocellulose market size was valued at USD 789.7 million in 2022 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2023 to 2030. This is attributed to the rising product demand in printing inks, paints & coatings, and various other end-use industries

www.grandviewresearch.com

I suspect this nitrocellulose "shortage" is not a long term issue. It doesn't mean I won't put away a few more pounds if good deals come along (inflation is likely here to stay) but I am not going to panic buy. I was looking at prices I paid for some 8 pounders in 2022 and prices are way way up since then.

 

[arakboss]

If you want Reloder 26 hurry before this gets snapped up.

New 8lbs Reloader 26

Unopened Reloader 26. 8lb jug.

www.northwestfirearms.com