You're downtown...when SHTF

[The Heretic]

Much of the northwest is built on alluvial flood plains - not just Portland.

I live on a "mountain" which was basically caused by those floods and a little bit of geological uplift. If there was an earthquake, some major parts of the mountain would slide away into the valley - the south side already has in the past (not during recorded history), which is why that side is much steeper.

Living in the valley doesn't necessarily protect you from landslides either; geologists have found landslides that went for miles - some in the southwest USA that went for tens of miles and covered a very large area. Some of the landslides are very deep too.

My next place will be chosen with that issue more in mind.

 

[CoastRange57]

Much of the northwest is built on alluvial flood plains - not just Portland.

I live on a "mountain" which was basically caused by those floods and a little bit of geological uplift. If there was an earthquake, some major parts of the mountain would slide away into the valley - the south side already has in the past (not during recorded history), which is why that side is much steeper.

Living in the valley doesn't necessarily protect you from landslides either; geologists have found landslides that went for miles - some in the southwest USA that went for tens of miles and covered a very large area. Some of the landslides are very deep too.

My next place will be chosen with that issue more in mind.

People would do well to study geological maps, or even study Earth Google a bit of the Portland Metro area you would see how vulnerable the PDX area is to earthquake damage. The entire metro area is essentially built on an area subject to liquafaction . You can see where the not so recent ( by geological standards) Missoula Floods shaped this area.

The area where you live will have multiple road failures due to the primitive way the roads were originally built, and then paved over with no base improvements.

Geology has all ways fascinated me, and last summer, sitting in my easy chair on the bank of a local lake here, I was able to see and visualize a huge multiple slide area, hundreds or even a thousand years ago.

 

[Provincial]

It is suprising how often "professionals" fail to understand geology. I once met with a pair of engineers from a large firm (which will remain nameless) who explained to me how the local city was planning to build an earthen dam on my property. As they showed me the location they had selected, I asked them why they chose to anchor one end to the toe of an ancient landslide? They both gave me "deer in the headlights" stares, so I showed them on a topog map the scarp, secondary scarps, and debris pile of the landslide. To their credit, they listened closely, and a few months later I learned that this location was no longer being considered.

 

[CoastRange57]

As they showed me the location they had selected, I asked them why they chose to anchor one end to the toe of an ancient landslide? They both gave me "deer in the headlights" stares, so I showed them on a topog map the scarp, secondary scarps, and debris pile of the landslide. To their credit, they listened closely, and a few months later I learned that this location was no longer being considered.

Or you could have some city /county engineers, , a couple of geologists, some old timers, some excavation contractors meet on a hillside about 18 years ago, with soil surveys, where the city proposed to build over 400 units as well as additional 400 below on the old slide run out area. Everybody except the public pukes clearly understood this was an ancient slide, probably in the last 500 years, and it was clearly visible and defineable.

Despite scientific proof this was an ancient landslide with another area above it that would likely slide /subside again given the right conditions and triggers, the entire area was built out in $ 400,000 homes.

 

[Provincial]

Or you could have some city /county engineers, , a couple of geologists, some old timers, some excavation contractors meet on a hillside about 18 years ago, with soil surveys, where the city proposed to build over 400 units as well as additional 400 below on the old slide run out area. Everybody except the public pukes clearly understood this was an ancient slide, probably in the last 500 years, and it was clearly visible and defineable.

Despite scientific proof this was an ancient landslide with another area above it that would likely slide /subside again given the right conditions and triggers, the entire area was built out in $ 400,000 homes.

My bet is that the city/county engineers were directed to approve the development because of the political power of the developer/developer's backers. I'll also bet that when the slide happens, the persons who made the big money off the development will escape any liability.

 

[CoastRange57]

I'll also bet that when the slide happens, the persons who made the big money off the development will escape any liability.

Standard procedure by developers is to get the LLC they formed to build the project closed as soon as the last lot is sold and paid for. That way any issues that develop are on the property owners and their insurance companies.

 

[The Heretic]

My bet is that the city/county engineers were directed to approve the development because of the political power of the developer/developer's backers. I'll also bet that when the slide happens, the persons who made the big money off the development will escape any liability.

He/she/they will be long gone

This is one of the flaws of current core Libertarian thinking; that the market is rational and self-correcting. That the "market" (i.e., the consumer) needs no protection from corporations because a corporation will act in its own long term self-interest which they define to include the long term interest of the customer/consumer/client. Also, that the consumer will act rationally and in their own informed self-interest.

In actuality, a corporation almost always acts for its own short term interest, when it acts for its own interest at all. Usually there is some manager(s) that works for the corp., who act for their own personal short term self-interest, whether that is a bonus/commission/profit sharing earned on some deal, or a promotion, etc. - the long term effects of which will only become known after that person has moved on to another job with another corp. or has retired, or the corp has ceased to exist.

The consumer does not act in their own rational self-interest, they like the view from their living room, or they otherwise don't consider any of the objective properties of what they are purchasing - they only consider the subjective properties, never thinking rationally, only emotionally.

In short, this core premise of Libertarian economic philosophy is fundamentally flawed in its failure to correspond with basic human nature; it relies on "rational actors" when in fact, humans are just the opposite. Humans are irrational and corrupt. Any philosophy that fails to take that basic component of human nature into account, will fail from the outset.

 

[The Heretic]

And FWIW - I consider myself Libertarian, but I obviously do not agree with their core economic model or philosophy. I prefer to deal with reality, not the fantasy of how I would prefer the world to work.

 

[Just Jim]

So anyway the only reason I would be close to down town Portland is to drive by it on 405 on my way to the gun show. Should it all fall down around me the first thing I would do is look for a secure location from aftershocks. Have to pick my way through the damage avoiding potential hazards and look for food as I go. I always carry a get me home bag but live 60 miles from Portland.

More I think about it I better add a change of underwear to my get me home bag.

 

[The Heretic]

One thing to remember - in such a situation, the best progress a person will probably make, assuming they are not sick, injured, have to help others sick/injured/feeble, is about 10 miles a day.

Yeah, there will be some who jump on that and say they can do a 30 mile forced march with a 100 pound pack.

Maybe they can, for the first day, with a water truck and ambulance following along behind, with a nice cot to sleep on at the end of day.

But most people won't be able to. Most people won't be in that kind of shape, most people will encounter obstacles, most people won't have the footwear necessary.

I know I personally would be surprised if I could make 10 miles the first day, even if I was feeling good (I am still recovering from my annual cold). Each subsequent day I would be less able to make progress. I live 30+ miles from where I work. If I were lucky, I would make it to my kids place in 2-3 days, layover there for a day or two and then make it the rest of the way home somehow.

I plan to eventually have a folding bicycle in my daily driver, but if the parking garage collapsed on or around it, then both my bicycle and GHB would be inaccessible. With a bicycle I could probably get to my kids place in less than a day, maybe even get home. I used to be able to ride a century (100 miles) when I was young, and that included going over the mountain I live on, but I haven't ridden a bicycle in over a decade (bad back).

 

[U201491]

Just curious how do you get those extra five degrees of view?

OK 360.... thinking years here LOL

 

[U201491]

You get that 365 degree view in all 57 states?

All 51
Actually 49, as Cal is really not qualified to be a state anymore ......................

 

[bolus]

If it was that bad, I'd desperately try to find some popcorn and then go watch the CareOregon building fall over.

 

[308]

Assuming the power would be off for some time, and sump pumps no longer serve their purpose, it would be interesting to watch all of the condos and OHSU buildings on the S.Waterfront begin to shift as the hydraulic pressure starts to lift their foundations.

But then again, most Portlanders would be eating each other with the power off for more than a couple weeks.

 

[U201491]

Anyone think of all the sewage and the pumps that keep it moving away from the low level buildings.
Would anyone want to be in a building that was not higher than the rest of the buildings
If there is a total power failure.......
Just think of all those houses up in the hills all flushing at once ROFLOL

 

[U201491]

Much of the northwest is built on alluvial flood plains - not just Portland.

I live on a "mountain" which was basically caused by those floods and a little bit of geological uplift. If there was an earthquake, some major parts of the mountain would slide away into the valley - the south side already has in the past (not during recorded history), which is why that side is much steeper.

Living in the valley doesn't necessarily protect you from landslides either; geologists have found landslides that went for miles - some in the southwest USA that went for tens of miles and covered a very large area. Some of the landslides are very deep too.

My next place will be chosen with that issue more in mind.

Live on a basalt mountain or hill and out of the valley.

 

[Caveman Jim]

Well at least you guys and gals wouldn't need to worry about zombies. .... oh wait Portland, well i hope you brought you some extra ammo... and an ax......

 

[CoastRange57]

That is what makes my GHB a bit heavier is that 100 rounds of 9mm. All this talk has go me looking at one of those 9mm ASW survival carbines.

I could make 10 miles the first day, probably 3 to 5 miles the second. I have places I could lay up at, I also have a friend with a plane that can land and take off in 700 feet in any terrain.

 

[308]

That is what makes my GHB a bit heavier is that 100 rounds of 9mm. All this talk has go me looking at one of those 9mm ASW survival carbines.
.
I could make 10 miles the first day, probably 3 to 5 miles the second. I have places I could lay up at, I also have a friend with a plane that can land and take off in 700 feet in any terrain.

The KelTec Sub2000 fits nicely in a small backpack.

 

[Caveman Jim]

So any thoughts of how many threats one might encounter in a scenario such as this?
How many ppl will be in the same boat (no pun intended)..... trying to figure out how to get home alive.