Why I never leave the house without a gun

Discussion in 'General Firearm Discussion' started by 2506, Sep 24, 2014.

  1. 2506

    2506
    Seattle
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  2. lowly monk

    lowly monk
    Beaverton, Oregon.
    Just a guy. Bronze Supporter

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    Yep.
     
  3. rick benjamin

    rick benjamin
    USA, Or, Damascus
    Secure the drama Silver Supporter 2016 Volunteer

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    Amen
     
  4. jim97701

    jim97701
    Bend
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    Word
     
  5. Gunguy45

    Gunguy45 Well-Known Member

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    Taking anything Huffpo says about guns seriously is like asking Mommy if there's really a Santa.

    I downloaded the PDF and I'm glad to have it, so thanks for the article.

    As for the numbers, look at them. Roughly 80 per year (including all injured people) out of about 11,000 -14,000 murders per year over the corresponding years.

    In other words, in the US with a homicide rate of roughly 4.4 per 100,000, mass shooting or "active shooter scenarios," account for about .05 per 100,000 (I'm throwing very rough estimates about, but they aren't wildly off).

    Your odds of becoming a victim of one of these events is roughly 1/10 that of being struck by lightning.(About 800 instances per year as of the last time I checked).

    If that utterly trivial threat (compared with your odds of dying in a traffic accident or being the victim of a strongarm robbery) is what gets you to carry every day, then I'm glad to hear you're motivated.

    If you actually lose even one second's sleep over this INCREDIBLY unlikely event happening to you absent a specific threat, you need to relax.;)
     
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  6. orygun

    orygun
    West Linn
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    It made the difference in Clacakams, OR.
     
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  7. RBid

    RBid
    Wilsonville, OR
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    The Nick Meli thing has a lot of holes in it. Can't keep calling that out as a win when it seems the shooter may never have seen Meli.
     
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  8. The Heretic

    The Heretic
    Oregon
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    By all means, if you want to carry then carry - it's your right - but the chances of you running into a mass shooting are less than being struck by lightning (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.htm).

    It's like all the guys who are always asking about "bear guns" because they think they will get attacked by a grizzly when it is more likely they will get stomped by a moose than a bear.

    Also, without reading the report, I would guess they probably also lump in those shootings where some crazy kills his whole family at Thanksgiving and things like that. Unless you have a crazy in your immediate family, and you invite him to Thanksgiving dinner, then your chances of being shot that way are way down too.

    Overall, violent crime by gun is going down.

    FWIW - I have had two or more (I forget exactly how many - it was ten years ago) driveby shootings where I used to live in Everett - they shot up a neighbors car. Glad I finally got to move away from there and out of the city (even the last place I lived in the city which was a middle upper class neighborhood, I heard several shots fired and police responses somewhat nearby).
     
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  9. orygun

    orygun
    West Linn
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    True, but he wasn't the only person there with a gun that day. One of them died, but I believe the shooter faced obstacles he didn't imagine and "ended" things early. The cops were still a long way away, even if they are only "across the street" from the mall.
    Either way, I'll go about my business prepared. You'll handle things your way.
    This shooter had the opportunity to make things much more devastating than they turned out. We'll never know the real answer...
     
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  10. chemist

    chemist
    Beaverton OR
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    I think the mass-shooting fear is stoked by the feeling that it can happen anywhere.

    The US stat of 4.4 per 100,000 is heavily skewed by a few hellholes like East Saint Louis, Camden, Flint, Chicago, and New Orleans. Eliminate those urban dystopias and the US homicide stats look pretty good, in line with most industrialized countries.

    The 80-per-year number is actually significant in the context of the usual goings-on at Clackamas mall or USC or anywhere else that normal people congregate. Of course it's still tiny compared to the number of traffic deaths, but that would be cold comfort to somebody who lost a family member.

    I don't know which would be worse, losing a loved one to a deliberate murderer or to a heedless drunk driver. We lose so many innocents to drunken idiots, and it's the most pointless, empty, meaningless way to die that I can imagine.
     
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  11. revjen45

    revjen45
    Snohomish County
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    With the Islamo-nazis getting cranked up the situation may be evolving.
     
  12. Sgt Nambu

    Sgt Nambu
    Oregon
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    I worry more about the ordinary meth head, sociopath, or armed robber. I'm uncomfortable with ISIS calling out to every nut job on earth to join their little party. No shortage of wackadoos that think they have been cheated, slighted or ignored out there!
    Part of my issues relate to being old and sort of helpless when I used to be a good guy but also a bad bubblegum if challenged or seeing helplessness being abused. Sorry! Kind of disjointed, but I have trouble talking about this sort of stuff.
     
  13. Morpheus

    Morpheus
    Columbia Gorge
    Anyway, back on the farm.

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    Active Shooter, that is an interesting new way to spin things.
    Sound about as made up as Assault Rifle.
     
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  14. erudne

    erudne
    The Pie Matrix
    PPL Say Sleeping W/Your Rifle Is A bad Thing?

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    The Philosophy is to be prepared Cowards always choose the weak to victimize. The fight against evil is measured in eons so there is no need to rush. Even a 22LR can ruin the BGs day, just be ready when your time comes:confused:
     
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  15. IronMonster

    IronMonster
    Free Idaho!
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    Is that Hanover Fist?

    Sorry, got distracted.
     
  16. deen_ad

    deen_ad
    Vancouver, WA
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    <- Why there aren't any school shootings in Israel!
    Teacher with long gun slung over her shoulder!!!

    Everything I've seen about it says Meli was seen by the perp.

    Deen
    NRA Life Member, Benefactor Level
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    "A gun is like a parachute. If you need one and don't have it, you'll probably never need one again!"
     
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  17. deen_ad

    deen_ad
    Vancouver, WA
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    <- Why there aren't any school shootings in Israel!
    Teacher with long gun slung over her shoulder!!!

    It's not: Active shooter is a term used by the LEO's and not just coined by the "news" media.

    Deen
    NRA Life Member, Benefactor Level
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    Defender of Freedom Award
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    "A gun is like a parachute. If you need one and don't have it, you'll probably never need one again!"
     
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