When will prices go back down? IF an AWB doesn't come through

[captqc]

Think of it like the story of full auto firearms, there are somewhere around 150,000 that can be owned by you and me (pre May 1986 manufacture). With semi-autos there are millions that would be available even if no more were produced. Prices are rising as we speak but depending on what laws are enacted or not will determine where they stablize at. My guess is that all of this hysteria will slow in a few months and by March we should have a good idea of what the future will be. We shall see.

 

[jbett98]

I listened to a radio show tonight that talked about what Obama could do right now with him signing an Executive Order banning all imported military assault style firearms before an ASB plan is put together.
That could send prices through the roof.

 

[AdamG2]

I think that prices will continue to go up, right up to the point the ban takes affect. This time it's different.

I agree. Obama is going to be under a lot of pressure to do SOMETHING regardless if it will actually prevent anything in the future. He could easily trade passage of his gun bill with the republicans for some additional concessions on the fiscal cliff negotiations which would be a win-win for the dems and republicans, we would be the losers. I think we will know more in a month when Biden makes his recommendations. Think high cap mags are going to be on the no list an we will see an assult rifle ban. The two big Qs are will it be another 10 year one, or will it be open ended, and will it have the same loopholes as last time or will they close them this time?

 

[MountainBear]

People should know that if the ban doesn't pass, they aren't getting $60 apiece for their PMags...

 

[Sling Blade]

Ok - hypothetical situation - A ban goes into effect then what? Do the available 'banned' guns go into a secondary sell off for higher prices and become held as a 'precious' item like gold? Do they get bought up in great amounts as a commodity by those who can afford to buy and hold on to them speculatively? Unlike gold guns in effect have no real support value, only to those who want them and that market could go away with time. The antique market could be used as a comparison given how it has fallen off dramatically due to a disappearing customer base.

Other than an object's intrinsic worth as a tool (e.g. carpenter's hammer necessary to do a job) worth is subject to percieved demand whether it is an ounce of gold or an AR magazine. Thus things, even gold, cycle up and down.

Imagine how rich we all could be if we know what something would be worth down the road - if I had all my old cars and motorcycles back I'd be totally rich. At teh time though they were worth what someone would give for them. Now that many of them are rare they are worth 20X what I sold some of them for.

 

[nwdrifter]

Priced will come down when the store can stay stocked. No time soon thats for sure

 

[Ligito]

When the first AWB presented itself, unobtainium reared its ugly head.
Prices were high for several years.

Distributors have been sold out of many products, for months, now.
Manufacturers have had waiting times of 24 weeks, just on uppers.
Try buying a Keltec KSG.

 

[Medic!]

I was thinking it..............Or not.

 

[jordanvraptor]

The important thing about a potential ban may be that transfer of grandfathered weapons or magazines might be prohibited unlike the previous ban. If this is the case, you will still be able to buy a machine gun but not a semi automatic. Weird. In my view, all the previous ban did was drove up prices for ten years and stopped a lot of bayonet attacks. Some say that Feinstein's ban will not pass but what if the antis divide it up and say attach just a magazine ban to some defense dept bill like how we got concealed carry in national parks. Think that would pass? I think that prices will stay high for a while.

Oh, here is a scary thought, what if Bloomberg and Soros buy Freedom Group and liquidate it?

 

[Modly]

After the 2008 election, it wasn't until Fall of 2009 that prices came down to normal. The inflation bubble kept prices higher for a long time, and seeing $16 windowless pmags were still common through the late summer. It wasn't until 2010 when stuff was actually at a 2007 price though, as far as rifles went. Sub $600 AR's, and sub $400 AK's.

2008 was how some companies made a reputation though, by not selling out and jacking prices up when other manufacturers did... Mega Machine was one of those awesome companies that still sold $80-90 lowers during the height of the scare, and ended up being seen for their high quality and great price, making them one of the best AR machine shops around today. Spikes Tactical gained fame, but mostly for being out of stock all the time, and creeping prices up.

2008 was also when everybody said "bubblegum Cheaper Than Dirt". It was said again last week. Apparently a lesson hasn't been learned by the public.



So, lesson is, if this does not turn into a AWB version 2, or "high capacity" mag ban, things will be on the shelves by April without issue. Also, if this turns into the non-grandfathered ban like some people suggest, this country will be at war.

 

[Burt Gummer]

This is so far beyond the '08 "panic"....what took almost 6 months in '08 has happened and more in less than a week.

my quote of the week from one of our favorite dealers " Semi autos have evaporated from the face of the planet."

I don't believe people are getting this message. This is going to be much worse the '93 or '08 by a long shot and last much longer. A year from now your average AR will be $5000 and 55g ammo will be $2 a shot. Economically you will have two choices. Take the family out to dinner or pop off one or two mags in five minutes at the range.

At the very least a '94 type ban is coming next year. At the worst, we will all be living under California-like gun laws by the end of next year. If the sheep aren't scared enough by now, 2-3 more incidents will get the job done.

Don't believe that? Let's talk next Xmas.

Think about buying anything now like buying silver at $9 in the mid 2000s. I remember when I did (substantially) that I took a verbal beating from my accountant. "Don't you know silver was just $5 an ounce two years or three years ago?!" Same with ammo, ARs, etc. You might believe that they are a high (compared to just a short while ago), but you are wrong.

The fear mongering gov-media presstitutes have not even begun their 24/7 campaign yet.

The war against gun owners will be based on 'health issues' and economics. You will need to mortgage the farm to buy decent weapons (if you can) and will also be required to buy insurance, a license, a safe, etc, etc. To drown the average gun owner in $$$ debt and frustration.


This whole thing is not a flash in the pan and will not be going away anytime soon. It may subside a bit, but the next wave coming in is a Tsunami.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Ok - hypothetical situation - A ban goes into effect then what? Do the available 'banned' guns go into a secondary sell off for higher prices and become held as a 'precious' item like gold? Do they get bought up in great amounts as a commodity by those who can afford to buy and hold on to them speculatively? Unlike gold guns in effect have no real support value, only to those who want them and that market could go away with time. The antique market could be used as a comparison given how it has fallen off dramatically due to a disappearing customer base.

Both gold and banned guns have intrinsic value. They both cannot be created out of thin air, backed by nothing like the dollar, ALMOST.

Between the two of those I would rate (banned or other quality) firearms and ammo over silver or gold. Why?

Because the banksters for years have been running a Paper Ponzi for silver and gold that probably won't be going away anytime soon. They print monopoly certificates for silver and gold that does not exist. For instance, JP Morgan has printed 100-300x more silver certificates than there is actual silver - that is the definition of a PONZI. Without this ponzi in full effect, gold would be $5000+ an ounce easily right now and silver $1000+ (the supply is much thinner, the ponzi ratio much broader for silver).

Now firearms cannot be printed out of thin air. They are real items. You can't get an 8x11" piece of paper and write on it "This is the same as 5 AKs". People would laugh at you. With silver or gold, not so much. They are dimwitted enough to believe that statement is fact.

 

[Sirmohawk]

The other day Kieth's had 30 DPMS Oracle ARs for $799 with two 30 rnd mags. Not a bad deal. If your looking for an AR I would recommend them, everyone else was out...

 

[Sun195]

I saw something for sale that's identical to one I own - at 3X the price I paid for it.

Me: Maybe I should sell one of these? It's worth a lot of money.
Wife: Maybe you should.
Me: I don't know what I'd do with the money.
Wife: You could buy a motorcycle.
Me: Nah, I think I'll keep the gun - probably safer.

 

[flybynyt]

Modly: "Also, if this turns into the non-grandfathered ban like some people suggest, this country will be at war."


I agree 100%!

 

[jordanvraptor]

I think a future ban would have to have a grandfather clause or it would not pass nationally. It may however not allow resale of said weapons and magazines and what you got is all you will ever have. If you die, bury it with you. Prior to enactment of said law you would see outrageously high prices until the ban starts. I might even sell my M4 or M1A if prices were right. I like my toys but money is money and I don't need them to defend myself. You are the weapon, a gun is just a tool.

 

[fry]

j frame smith wesson for a grand.... only on nwfa dot really?

http://www.northwestfirearms.com/ha...-3-2-snubnose-22lr-custom-s-w-wood-grips.html

 

[Burt Gummer]

I was thinking about what rifle/shotgun should be the poster child for the word ban, mostly just because it looks evil. Let's face it 'assault' in the media is all about what it looks like, not how it functions.

Hands down that has to be the Saiga 12.

So I looked on Gunbroker and I see vanilla conversions for $2000 or so all the way up to $4000 and beyond. Geez. Now, that said, $1300.00 was reasonable for a really nice S12 converted before the hype. The cost of the shotgun + quality conversion kit + bolt work + labor was worth about that.

I would think getting your hands on a S12 and converting it would make a lot of sense now. Then I could find none; and 20-round mags previously $99, now $300+. SS Custom Saiga 12 Tango 12 LIMITED Model w/ Rails : Semi Auto Shotguns at GunBroker.com

Nice to have one I must say. No one is letting these go. Search Saiga 12 converted for sale and it is a ghost town search.

These guys called it back on 12/2 -

 

[4Freedom]

Don't forget the Saiga 12 Mags... Those may be harder to find than the Saiga 12s themselves... The Surefire 12rds and the MD20 drums probably will be one of the first things they ban.. They were going for like $40 or so back a few years ago.. I bet now, you couldn't pay anything less than $100 if you could even find them. The Russian mags are even more spendy for less capacity and harder to obtain.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Try $200+ already for the MD mags. Actually surprised they are not more than that, although I did see a couple selling for $300+. They WERE $99, sometimes on sale for $79 (rarely), but never $40. That might have been for the junk Promags. (Wait just looked - those are going for $150+)

The funny thing is the MDs are typically filed down to fit a specific S12. You can BIN for $400! lol --- http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=323190558