When should we buy metals? Silver, Platinum, Gold, etc?

[Member 52301]

My precious metals are in my RF (22lr and 22wmr) ammunition.

Old Lady Cate

 

[The Heretic]

Deleted

I did my calculations wrong.

 

[Wood Worker]

Silver is super useful, and antibacterial too, and can even stop MRSA. Even If you only buy two onces of it, use them in your own colloidal silver generator as the electrodes. Please look into it, you may be surprised.

 

[The Heretic]

I looked at the spot price history for PMs - considerable volatility.

The old rule applies; buy low, sell high. Therefore, I would wait for a considerable dip, and I would look at the history of PMs over the last year or two to get a feel for what a "dip" would be - it may be a LOT more than you think.

Personally, I would buy silver in small denominations if I were buying it for barter and not speculation. Much easier to trade an ounce of silver for a pound of ammo at $25/oz than an ounce of gold at $2K/oz. - IMO.

 

[gmerkt]

considerable volatility.

To say the least. However, if you look at the longer time line, the trend is upward. At one time, I used to hear the following phrase used about buying equities: "dollar cost averaging." Which is just as applicable to precious metals as it is to equities.

But when there is a lot of gold buying fever as someone said previously, it might be a time to turn away from buying PM. These days, we have ETF's buying into gold which I believe has been a factor in market momentum. All bull markets eventually reach a point of exhaustion even if temporary. When gold crossed the 2000 line, I think that was a mental barrier for some buyers including institutionals. When something like that happens, the market loses momentum and price rises stop and sometimes reverse. Previously I've pointed out great secular runs in PM, like 1980 and 2011. They peaked, then prices dropped. But not back to historic lows. We don't know if what's been going on is one of those secular run-ups destined to fizzle, or just a breather on the way up. One thing is sure, the expansion of fiat (paper) money hasn't stopped. And it will continue. So in the long run, PM is likely to prosper as it has for many years before our personal existence. It will never be worth nothing. My own view of PM is on a very long time line. Not day to day fluctuations.

My hope and expectation is that I will never need PM. At my age, these days I'm looking upon it as a kind of generational family treasure box. To be used by children or grandchildren in emergencies, maybe dire, maybe not. There have been times in history where gold secretly sewn into garment hems saved lives or bought safe passage.

Today gold is around 1,865 or thereabouts and I'm still on the sidelines at that price. I'm waiting to see if there is further downside to encourage buying. I have numbers in my mind that I'd like to see. Maybe I have my head too far in the past and should adjust my expectations. Waiting is a gamble just like jumping in is a gamble. What I'd really like is a crystal ball.

 

[The Heretic]

Take a look at ammo - brass and lead (mostly). Useful even in peaceful times, more valuable in turbulent times. In the last 8-9 months the market value has shot up 2-3X.

 

[GWS]

Lately, silver has been dropping, like $6 an ounce. Now its down to $22.92/oz.
I'd wait on buying till I see where the bottom is.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Not a fan of silver and gold but much less a fan of dollars backed by absolutely NOTHING. A believer that the banks at some point will perform a digital robbery, a 'holiday' that they have openly discussed where everyone's saving is 'adjusted.'
The next 9-10 years should prove very challenging. My advice is have something REAL. If something can be taken from you via a keystroke - your savings, IRA, silver (certs), etc - they will be at some point. I would rather have a shovel or a cordless drill than $30 in a bank earning nothing.
Try an experiment NOW. Just go to your bank and ask to withdraw a significant amount of YOUR cash. See what a stink they will raise.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Most folks don't have a lot of money in the bank, it's their IRA that will be destroyed.

 

[The Heretic]

Not a fan of silver and gold but much less a fan of dollars backed by absolutely NOTHING. A believer that the banks at some point will perform a digital robbery, a 'holiday' that they have openly discussed where everyone's saving is 'adjusted.'
The next 9-10 years should prove very challenging. My advice is have something REAL. If something can be taken from you via a keystroke - your savings, IRA, silver (certs), etc - they will be at some point. I would rather have a shovel or a cordless drill than $30 in a bank earning nothing.
Try an experiment NOW. Just go to your bank and ask to withdraw a significant amount of YOUR cash. See what a stink they will raise.

If the gov wants it, or they don't want you to have it, they will take it, whether it is a gold ingot or a shovel.

 

[MichaelH]

9mm. I bought a budget AR, worth about $700, by selling and partial trade of about 1300 rounds of 115gr brass cased FMJ 9mm that was purchased pre-pandemic at .15cpr. I'm not sure what I could possibly do with gold, platinum or silver if trudging through the apocalypse, nor why anyone would want it.

 

[wired]

9mm. I bought a budget AR, worth about $700, by selling and partial trade of about 1300 rounds of 115gr brass cased FMJ 9mm that was purchased pre-pandemic at .15cpr. I'm not sure what I could possibly do with gold, platinum or silver if trudging through the apocalypse, nor why anyone would want it.

Same here. The gold and silver infrastructure has been broken at the low level. In a EOTWAWKI situation / societal collapse your'e going to give a 140 year old morgan dollar to someone for a loaf of bread? So they can do what with it?

 

[Hueco]

Same here. The gold and silver infrastructure has been broken at the low level. In a EOTWAWKI situation / societal collapse your'e going to give a 140 year old morgan dollar to someone for a loaf of bread? So they can do what with it?

The people hawking metals aren't thinking EOTW. They're thinking Great Depression or maybe even world war or something like the fall of the Roman Empire...where it might be the end of your world as you know it but not the world as we know it...you know, where another civilization/government is doing just fine and those precious metals will be worth something to someone over there.

In a true EOTW, the metals won't be worth a damn thing.

 

[fredball]

When Buying Gold make sure you Buy when the price is high and sell when the price is low

 

[gmerkt]

I've been watching out for the end of the world for quite some time. In the 1960's, it was the Minutemen. In the 80's it was the Survivalists. Now, it's the Preppers (and some people here on NWFA). It hasn't occurred yet, I'm happy to say. But inflation of the US Dollar has been a very real thing during that same period of time.

The thing about firearms, you can have them to be ready just in case. And you may also use them for enjoyment in the meantime. Even though they've become something of a political liability lately.

My personal view is that events of 2020-21 have stalled the goals of the gun controllers. They saw Biden's presidency, a Dem House and Senate as a golden moment to enact a bunch of new legislation contrary to gun ownership. Then, the Covid hit, followed by Summer rioting. After this scenario of disorder, lots of ordinary people went out and bought more guns. The conundrum for the anti-gun side is, they don't want to alienate any more potential voters than they have to. So now they aren't sure what to do next. Bide their time a while longer, I'd guess.

There is the saying, "If you find yourself stuck with lemons, make lemonade." So if there is anything good about guns and ammo being scarce and expensive these days, we can take comfort in the fact that lots of this stock has gone into new hands, the ones the anti-gunners are now wary of offending.

Gold has established a trading range now that has some legs. The unknowable question is, do we look at historic high runs and watch for a major sell off, or is the lately established trading range a floor? The trouble with examining historic data for insight is, no two eras are exactly the same. Historic highs followed by major sell-offs for gold in 1980 and 2011 didn't involve a major upset like Covid. Nor did serious, real inflation of assets correspond with either of these two previous high cycles. Or a huge expansion of the money supply.

I watch some of the forex sites and read what they say about gold. It amuses me the way they make predictions. They will make a statement that sounds very authoritative, followed by something like, "but if this doesn't happen, then we think that" and they follow up with a corresponding opposite prediction. Very safe.

 

[Burt Gummer]

If the gov wants it, or they don't want you to have it, they will take it, whether it is a gold ingot or a shovel.

This is very true, HOWEVER, I would much prefer that they'd have to come and take it, find it, then simply use a keystroke. That was the point I was trying to make.

 

[GWS]

Same here. The gold and silver infrastructure has been broken at the low level. In a EOTWAWKI situation / societal collapse your'e going to give a 140 year old morgan dollar to someone for a loaf of bread? So they can do what with it?

So they can trade it to someone else who wants silver or save it for if/when things get better and silver/gold become valuable again, as it has always been through history.

The people hawking metals aren't thinking EOTW. They're thinking Great Depression or maybe even world war or something like the fall of the Roman Empire...where it might be the end of your world as you know it but not the world as we know it...you know, where another civilization/government is doing just fine and those precious metals will be worth something to someone over there.

In a true EOTW, the metals won't be worth a damn thing.

Yep, pm's can buy your way into a country that's doing better than your own.

If you're talking extinction level event then yeah, precious metals or anything else for that matter will have no value. We'll all be dead or soon will be. Anything less than ELE, then at some point down the road silver and gold will be valued again.

 

[Camelfilter]

So they can trade it to someone else who wants silver or save it for if/when things get better and silver/gold become valuable again, as it has always been through history.

Yep, pm's can buy your way into a country that's doing better than your own.

If you're talking extinction level event then yeah, precious metals or anything else for that matter will have no value. We'll all be dead or soon will be. Anything less than ELE, then at some point down the road silver and gold will be valued again.

PM's are just another basket to carry wealth. One which has a different risk.

Also, a basket not worth filling until all of ones other financial baskets are in order...

IMO.

 

[The Heretic]

PM's are just another basket to carry wealth. One which has a different risk.

Also, a basket not worth filling until all of ones other financial baskets are in order...

IMO.

I prefer self-sufficient land/shelter with water and trees. If I had thousands of acres like that, guns & ammo, equipment, etc., no debt and millions extra in liquidity, then I might have some PMs, but I am not sure what good it would do me, except maybe to pay for labor, and even then if SHTF I bet that labor would rather have food/water & shelter/security than gold/silver.

 

[GWS]

PM's are simply another tool to have in your box. They give you another option in dealing with folks. You cannot offer "Plato o Plombo" without the plato,