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What sorts of scenarios do you perceive to be real possibilities?

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by RBid, Mar 22, 2012.

  1. RBid

    RBid Wilsonville, OR Well-Known Member

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    I feel obligated to start this post by saying that I am not anti-prepping, and I do not think that 'survivalist' or 'prepper' are synonymous with 'nut job'.

    I'll kick things off by stating some of my own opinions, or beliefs. I absolutely respect your right to have an opinion that differs from my own.

    The reason that I sought out this forum is the same reason that compelled me to buy my first firearms. While I have a background that has always made me feel capable without a weapon, relatively recent events have made me step back, and take note of some possibilities that I had not previously considered. Specifically, I am referring to the London riots. As this is a Northwest forum, that may confuse some folks.

    I was born in 1977. In my lifetime, there have been literally hundreds of documented riots, and many associated periods of brief, explosive violence. While these types of things have typically been contained in very small geographic areas, the internet has redefined many peoples' perceptions of proximity. This is something that I have been paying attention to closely, as I have seen a situation set off smaller events, far from the original. The London riots are a prime example, and were brought up for a reason. During the London riots, I spoke to a friend who lives in the UK, in a city pretty far removed from London. Despite the geographical divide, the riots impacted him, and his loved ones. When coverage of the riots hit, it wasn't just awareness that spread. Small groups where my friend lives became... agitated. There were break-ins, and violent, undirected outbursts, even in areas far away from London. My friend saw homes and vehicles damaged, and one of his family members was assaulted. This, in a place where the locals felt very safe, and insulated from such things.

    Talking to him made me look hard at trends, and take note of some potential issues. The Occupy movement isn't a violent endeavor, but it absolutely shows that large numbers of people are becoming so frustrated, that they can no longer ignore it. In this day and age, unrest is fully capable of going viral.

    While I am not personally concerned with TEOTWAWKI scenarios becoming real, I am of the opinion that brief, possibly violent flare-ups are ridiculous to ignore. I'm not talking about extended periods of WROL. Rather, I am talking about periods where small groups challenge or ignore ROL.

    This is what worries me.

    What worries YOU? What are YOU preparing for?
     
  2. rumblebee1967

    rumblebee1967 Bellingham Active Member

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    I am concerned about the increasing number of home invasions and those that think they are owed something by those that have even a few more material things than others.
     
  3. Morpheus

    Morpheus Columbia Gorge Anyway, back on the farm.

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    I honestly don't worry about the different scenarios any more seriously than others. I just look at how prepared I am for any scenario. Do I have those basic needs covered which are required in any emergency. I try to have a solid foundation to build upon, so I have options if something unplanned happens. Be that a car breaking down in the middle of no where, home invasion, power outage, bad weather (flood, blizzard, etc), earthquake, or even a localized or society wide breakdown.

    Simple things like knowing your neighbors. Having water and food. Having a heating and cooking source that doesn't require electricity. Having first aid kits. Having training in different weapons for defense. All of these things make you better prepared regardless of the event. And honestly, why not have them around if you can afford to have them around?
     
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  4. MrNiceGuy

    MrNiceGuy between springfield and shelbyville Well-Known Member

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    zombies... I'm preparing for zombies.


    Up here in the "Northwest" we dont get no fancy edumacated n00s channels.
    London riots sounds like some high falutin lady stinky spray.
    Dont try to confuse us simpletons with your half truths and gorilla dust.
     
  5. chemist

    chemist Beaverton OR Well-Known Member

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    Looking at collapse in other societies, it seems to be more of a generational thing than a single cataclysmic event. That won't make me feel any better if it's my home that's burned to the ground, but IMO the civilized world as a whole will surely take a long time to spiral down, even as more and more people are shaved off the bottom rung and abandoned.

    So until I can't pay my taxes and I get thrown out of my home, I see my potential problems as basically crime-related. Riots are just large-scale crimes, and what triggers them is almost irrelevant once they get going. I like living in a medium-density place where I have close neighbors, but it'd be hard for a whale of a mob to get together here - unless we all decided to join in. It's a heckuva long walk to any city center from here.

    The Rodney King riots showed that the criminals in a mob were just as cowardly and opportunistic as they are when they act alone. A single Korean shopkeeper with his dinky pistola was enough to keep the mob back - they went to look for easier pickins'. That attitude contrasts starkly with somebody defending his store, home, and family: I'll bet the majority of us here would knowingly lay down our lives for our loved ones.

    Maybe when large numbers of Americans are truly starving the picture will change, as the mobs see their smash-and-grabs as a matter of simple survival. But until then, I think that criminals will remain relatively easy to deter. Remember when carloads of gangstas were cruising the nicer areas during the LA riots, looking for unguarded property? Ordinary people in their front yards with weapons in hand was all it took to turn them back.

    There will still be quakes, wildfires, or the odd bowling-ball-from-the-sky event, but those are just the punctuation in the story, the fuse that touches off the bottled-up criminal energy like a massive flashmob signal. My neighbors and I will know what to do and how to take care of each other when it's time to do it.
     
  6. RBid

    RBid Wilsonville, OR Well-Known Member

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    I should explain... I don't sound so formal in writing because I am trying to sound smart. I just choose words very carefully, to try to be as clear as possible. In the part that you quoted, I seem to have failed.

    I didn't mean that it would confuse people because they are from the Northwest. Rather, I meant that it may confuse some people that I, as an Oregonian/PNW resident, would be spurred into action by something that happened in the UK.

    I love the PNW, and fully intend to live here until my days are done.


    Since you brought up 'simpletons', I should also point out that those are my people. I am half simpleton, and half goll-danged-idjit.
     
  7. RBid

    RBid Wilsonville, OR Well-Known Member

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    Chemist--

    Well said, sir.
     
  8. ATCclears

    ATCclears Seattle area, WA Well-Known Member

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    RBid, my thoughts...

    A severe storm. We had this in the Northeast quadrant of greater Seattle about five years ago. Woodinville was completely dark except for Target (running on their generator). We were personally fine with a generator, but I did venture out "just to see". Surreal. The police had commandeered the working gas station in the vicinity. We took in friends after their power was out for three days. I still remember the look in the eyes of people after a few days - they didn't know what to do, it was cold, and they were on the verge of desperation.

    An earthquake. It is not "if" but "when" for this. The Northwest is overdue. I believe that we will be on our own for 4+ weeks, and even getting medical attention will be a problem (ie., thousands trapped, perhaps 5000+ dead). Natural gas and electricity will be problematic (if even available). Forget about getting food and gasoline. The government simply cannot help 4M+ people for a large natural disaster. There will be desperation and violence into the third week.

    Some form of economic meltdown or hyperinflation. Life will become more difficult for many people. The cost of purchasing essentials will skyrocket. More people will fall into poverty. Violence will increase as people try to survive (it is embedded in our genes). Black-market trading will appear.

    Peter
     
  9. jbett98

    jbett98 NW Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    As stated by Lew Rockwell,

    In order for a society to function, there has to be a certain level of trust. Each day when we leave our homes, we take for granted that most people are not going to attack us for no reason, that there will only be isolated incidents of theft in our community and that rioting and violence are not going to erupt in the streets. Whether we realize it or not, we depend on the fact that the vast majority of the people around us are going to act in a civilized manner. Unfortunately, the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is starting to disappear. When I was growing up, I was taught that challenging times reveal our true character. There are many that believe that the declining economy is causing a lot of the chaos that we are now witnessing, but perhaps what is going on is that these challenging economic times are simply revealing the character that has been there all along. For decades, a "false prosperity" that was fueled by unprecedented amounts of debt has masked a lot of the internal rot that has taken hold in America. But now that our prosperity is crumbling, our lack of values is becoming startlingly clear.
     
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  10. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner You'll Never Know Well-Known Member

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    All of them, because sh!t happens! :D
     
  11. chemist

    chemist Beaverton OR Well-Known Member

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    Hey jbett98, "Me first" exceptionalism is a value too, tried and true!

    The quake will be catastrophic when it strikes here, but there's sure to be a biggie somewhere else first, and that can have a real impact on us.

    Whether the Big One hits Tokyo or the Wahabists topple the Saudi monarchy or UG99 wipes out all the wheat in India, something bad will almost certainly strike somewhere else before disaster comes to our doorstep. And then we'll see the upheaval and shortages, food & housing riots, draconian police actions, and of course crime, even though the disaster happened somewhere else.
     
  12. Blitzkrieg

    Blitzkrieg WA Well-Known Member

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    What you avoided was the multi cult ethnic aspect to the riots... which is a critical factor.. all multi cult empires end in blood baths
     
  13. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

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    There are some OWS people who have no idea what they are there for except to raise heck, but a lot of them are there to cause chaos and try to force the tax payers give them something for nothing and to say are peaceful well I believe is simple minded I was born in 1961 in Detroit and can remember seeing building burn and tanks on the street corners. Here is some peaceful ows OWS Protester Dumps Human Waste In ATM Lobby | Urine & Feces Chase ATM Lobby | TheBlaze.com this is where it starts, they get away with it and they push a little further and further.

    Here is another trouble maker Louis Farrakhan Tweets Curious Messages About Peace & Justice | Trayvon Martin | TheBlaze.com who will not be happy until he is a marter or he causes race riots

    another embisol is this clown Bill Maher Pens New York Times Op-Ed On Free Speech | TheBlaze.com he is stirring up sh1t just to increase his ratings to increase his own pay

    Now what do I think will happen, well I am not an expert on the bible but I believe that the idiots here in power must along with the muslim brotherhood and btw this idiot just gave them $1.5 mm Obama Bypasses Congress AGAIN! Gives Muslim Brotherhood $1.5 Billion *|*Liberty News Network

    My worse case scenario

    Iran pushes Israel until the bomb their sorry butts, then we get drawn into it and their sleeper cells use the ows people as front or farrakans radicals as way to start something and then all heck breaks loose.

    Another well big "O" does not get re-elected and we see a repeat of 2000 elections on a grander scale

    Or big "O" does get re-elected and the turd continues to bypass congress until a forced impeachment takes place and then there are more riots,

    Lets face it people a lot of people are really hurting and by the numbers I am seeing there are going to be more and more layoffs comings this year and if the idiot is re-elected they will spiral further faster.

    Grand addy of them all, Israel attacks Iran when ows ers and farrakn are going nuts, Iran uses this situation use its sleeper cells to cause heck and Iran explodes and EMP directly over the center of the U.S. during the middle od chaos, anyone here besides me seen the documentary Iranium, has anyone else studied military tactics, has anyone listen to the Iranian I'm A Nut Job, what is their overall goal, anyone read the 12th Iman. anyone read the Quran.

    Anyone heard about how they want to get of cash or how sweden just went cashless,

    I beleive in the bible, but it does not say what we are going to have to go through until god returns and that is what i am preparing a slow and steady decline, anyone here remember how when you had a good job ten years you had a somewhat positive outlook on things, I have a great job making good money exposed to a lot and it scares the crap out of me and everyone else who can analyze it all and put the whole thing together.

    enough rambling because some are laughing at me and others think I am a knuckle head by now, but you better be prepping and praying this will be alright
     
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  14. Blitzkrieg

    Blitzkrieg WA Well-Known Member

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  15. EZLivin

    EZLivin SW of PDX Well-Known Member

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    Lots of excellent points on this thread. As has been said, being ready for a major disruption (food, water, power, medical, security) entails pretty much the same thing regardless of the specific event that brings it about. Where one lives determines how one fine tunes their preps, as does one's time frame.

    That being said, what "worries" me the most? 1) The moment in time when Americans awaken en masse to the realization that the current world financial system has collapsed. They still don't understand what it means to be holding the world reserve currency when that role fails. 2) War in the Middle East. A war with Iran could easily engulf the entire region (and the world).

    Nothing else even remotely concerns me like those two events. The ramifications of either/both on individual's lives, economic infrastructure, and political institutions is frightening. Unfortunatley I see both as pretty much a fait accompli. It will take a miracle to avoid either one.
     
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  16. DEADTIME

    DEADTIME Coeur D alene Active Member

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    Interesting read, some well constructed ideas.
     
  17. Sun195

    Sun195 Pugetropolis, WA Well-Known Member

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    Storms: disruptions of a few days to a week+. Can't get out of the neighborhood, so better have food/water/medications available. No power, no heat.

    Terrorism: My sense is that this will be more localized, and if you're not in the line of fire/blast zone, you'll be stuck trying to get around it. Maybe you'll have to help victims. Maybe it changes the way we have to do business for a period of time. But, then I never thought people would fly planes into buildings, so who knows what people are capable of doing in this scenario?

    Earthquakes: disruptions of various levels anywhere from a few days to a few months. Could be a scenario where structures fall down (hopefully not mine), infrastructure fails (roads, water, power, telephone), gas isn't available, stores aren't re-stocked so food/etc isn't available, maybe some associated crime/disorder that comes from people trying to take advantage of the situation or desperate (because they didn't plan)

    Economic Collapse/Disruption: Who can really say how this will play out or what would trigger it? Some rogue trader bets half a hedge fund's assets on something and loses. Nukes fly in the Middle East and oil shoots up to $400/barrel. Some European country goes belly-up and starts a stampede from credit markets. I think this event will have a softer entry, but maybe a longer duration. Crime as a result of economic decline means you won't want to go out much if you don't have to. Maybe you're out of a job. Maybe things you're accustomed to getting (food/medication/gas) aren't available when you want them, or at prices you can't afford. Basically, go talk to anyone who lived through the Great Depression and ask them how things were - it was terrible for some, bad for others, ok for some - it varied.

    Pandemic: a butterfly flaps its wings in Asia and causes a hurricane in North America - who knows? Such a range of things that could happen under this scenario. At some point, you may have to stop interacting socially with others - no going to work, no school, no stores. Will you know when that time comes? How long will it last? How severe is the pandemic? What's the mortality rate? (and for who) Can you manage not going to the store for several months for food/mediation? Can you hang-out in your home for several months? Can you convince your family members to stay put? What happens when the electrical/water/whatever grid goes down and there aren't enough healthy people to fix it? What happens if a family member gets sick? I don't think we're in for a zombie apocalypse, but this could be the worst disaster of them all.
     
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  18. Burt Gummer

    Burt Gummer Portland Completely Out of Ammo

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    All the four above scenarios can be started by our handlers whenever they wish, so they will do what they do. As individuals and slaves, all we can do is prepare the best we can for what they have in store.

    Even the 7.8 Mexican quake. The governor twittered six minutes before the beginning of the quake that the 'drill' would be starting. If people were ever able to grasp that just about everything is pre-planned and plotted by governments and societies their heads would explode.
    Much easier to stay deluded. For instance, odds against this are over a million to one for a 7.5+ quake, but that makes no difference. Chiapas Governor 6 minutes before earthquake:
     
  19. RBid

    RBid Wilsonville, OR Well-Known Member

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    Thanks to everyone who has participated, so far. Lots of food for thought.
     
  20. FortRock

    FortRock Bend/Salem, OR Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    we're not laughing