What if we get an incoming ICBM alert like Hawaii?

[Skier]

He may not have 2018 level tech from Russia or China, but he may well have 1990 level tech, which is plenty dangerous to us.

From a yield point of view, as a datapoint, the estimate of his recent detonation was mostly estimated at around 150Kt yield via a boosted fission reaction (though other estimates suggest 300Kt). Sticking with the 150Kt yield for this example, our air launched missiles designed in a early 80s could be configured for a yield of up to about 125Kt from a ~300 pound, 31 inch long warhead. Yes, we put these in an air launched package, but this size of warhard wouldn't be hard to put on the tip of a smaller ICBM, so yeah, his tech is likely late '80s to early 90's, but. as you said, still reasonably devastating if detonated in the air over a major metro area (e.g. LA, with a 150Kt airburst would likely yield over 1/4 of a million dead, and another 2/3 of a million injured).

 

[Skier]

It depends on what computer your using but in Windows there is an app called Snipping Tool

Also, if you have Microsoft OneNote, and the little trayicon is active, you can hit WINDOWSKEY+SHIFT+S (or some older versions might just be WINDOWSKEY+S) and it will allow you select a section of the screen to capture.

 

[Skier]

Army navy and even aircraft bases would be far down the priority list. Airforce bases because the important aircraft would be launched long before any impact......(when I was in SAC, nuclear armed aircraft were launched with very little reason because they can be recalled) sub bases would be a useless expenditure of weapons, it is the deployed force just off his coast that would be his problem, F15's would be used locally to attempt to shoot down incoming warheads, between the pre posisitioned missile firing submarines the follow up of our forward stationed cruise missiles from ships and aircraft close to his borders US based ICBM's would be the last (probably unnessiary) strike that would change the map by creating several new harbors on the North Korean coast. Once the button is pushed, even our nuclear armed bombers are not nessisary because at that point our Triad defense plan is no longer required. Little rocket man has few weapons.......how would he allocate them? Have you seen how spread out our ICBM bases are like FE Warren or Minot are. It would take more weapons than he has to neutralize any one of those facilities. They are so large we use helicopters for crew changes just to get them done in a reasonable amount of time. Each base encompasses hundreds of miles. Did you see we just moved B52 and B2 bombers into the Far East. Those are not going to drop bombs but fire 500 MPH nuclear armed cruise missiles from 100 miles off his coast. It takes less than 30 min for a US based multiple warhead ICBM to strike North Korea but our cruise missile will be there in 10 or 15.

When were you in SAC? I was in SAC in the early 90s, and we rarely, if ever, actually launched any Nuke carrying bombers, though we had plenty on alert pads to launch at a moments notice until they went off alert somewhere around '92.

 

[Argonaut]

When were you in SAC? I was in SAC in the early 90s, and we rarely, if ever, actually launched any Nuke carrying bombers, though we had plenty on alert pads to launch at a moments notice until they went off alert somewhere around '92.

I was the Wing Historian for the 22nd bomb wing and worked at the 15th airforce in the early 70's. Wrote the history for linebacker ll before cross training into Rescue.

 

[uscsoldier]

When were you in SAC? I was in SAC in the early 90s, and we rarely, if ever, actually launched any Nuke carrying bombers, though we had plenty on alert pads to launch at a moments notice until they went off alert somewhere around '92.

I did 3 years at USNORTHCOM

 

[Skier]

Assuming zero warning is a fair assumption. The US does not want to disrupt commerce or cause a panic to evacuate.

I could just as well see something like this:

"Governor, we've received notice from the Pentagon that they may have detected a missile launched, and the trajectory suggests it may be heading to Portland."

"Are you sure?"

"No, we're not 100% sure yet."

"Okay, prep our vehicles to evacuate"

[5 minutes pass]

"Okay, we have confirmation. The missile is heading straight for us."

"Sound the alert. I want this on every major news network, texts sent to all cell phones, all radio stations broadcasting suggestions to shelter in place."

"We can do that, but FYI, we're right at ground zero, and even if we go to the basement, we'll likely have tons on concrete on top of us, and trapped for day, no clean water, no food, destructions and radiation outside, if we could even make it to the surface..."

"Yeah, like I said, we need to evacuate to a safer location."

"... and so... If we make that announcement, there will be instant chaos on the roads. Just one idiot making a mistake may get in an accident, trapping us on the highway out, in the open."

"Oh... You're right. Delay the announcement until we are out of the blast radius, and start the evacuation."

"On it."

[another 15-20 minutes later]

[Radio announcement] We have just received a confirmed report that a nuclear missile has just been detected and will impact the Portland area in the next 2-5 minutes. If you have time, make your way to a basement of fallout shelter. If not, give your family members one last hug. [silence for ~20 seconds]. I love you honey, sorry I can't make it home to be with you. I love you. Kids, I love you... I'm going to try to make it to the basement. This is our last transmission. May God help us all..."

[Radio silence]

But hey, at least the governor and a few key advisers are fine...

 

[bolus]

Good points. One things I'd mention is that, from a water filtration point of view, I'd recommend Sawyer filters over Life Straws.

The Sawyer filter had "holes" half the size of the Life Straws, so you're pretty darn well protected from just about everything but viruses (which would likely be found in sewage, like you suggested, but just about any other natural water source, e.g. lake, river, creek, etc, would be very safe to drink. Locally, I think some of the most likely bad-stuff you'd find in water would probably be giardia, which the Sawyer definitely filters better.... Here's the filter specs:

Sawyer:

• Removes 99.99999% of all bacteria, such as salmonella, cholera and E.coli; removes 99.9999% of all protozoa, such as giardia and cryptosporidium, 0.1 Micron absolute hollow fiber membrane inline filter, exceeding EPA and NSF recommendations

LifeStraw

• Removes minimum 99.9999% of waterborne bacteria, 99.9% of waterborne protozoan parasites, and filters to 0.2 microns; surpasses EPA filter standards, filters to 0.2 microns, surpasses EPA filter standards

Just for some quick math, remembering that bacteria area really small, and you can have a lot in a given area, if you have, say, 1 million of them in a gallon of water, with a 99.9% filter, if you drank that gallon of water, you'd still ingest 1000 of them... With a 99.9999% filter, you'd get 1. On another note, the CDC recommends a 1 micron or smaller absolute pore size in a water filters, and filtering to NSF specs, to be able to filter out giardia effectively.

LifeStraw isn't a bad product in general, but I'm just saying that they're better out there.

Here's some info from the CDC on Water Filters.

A Guide to Water Filters | Cryptosporidium | Parasites | CDC

Thanks. I got a couple ordered.

 

[Silver Hand]

Find a desk and go hide under it. Stay away from the windows, unless of course your desk is in that row. I guess they will move it after the blast? We never did find out!

 

[Argonaut]

I did 3 years at USNORTHCOM

So.......you were a missile guy? Was that at Malstrom or Minot? I used to do "orientation" rides in all the aircraft types assigned to my units.......March, to low level bombing runs in central Oregon, northern Montana and Nevada on the way home. Sometimes 18 hrs and there is no place in a B52 for an extra crewman. The only place to stand upright is on the ladder between decks. The KC135's were better......I rode on the first mission refueling a B1b with my wing commander. General Lemay had retired near the base and spent a lot of time in the O club.....great guy. I really enjoyed getting to know him. The 15th commander General Pitts had flown missions for him in WW2. Pitt's wife was from Spokane (as was I) and she was very nice to me making sure I always had an invitation to fly with the General when he was traveling to Fairchild.

 

[Skier]

Lots of work there. Convince me that downtown Portland has any strategic value worth a nuke.

Agreed, but I just thought it would be interesting to see what might be expected, in the unlikely event that Portland WAS targeted. You never know what stupid thing people might think... I could be they'd rather target:

Hawaii: Maybe closest target? Shortest missile travel time, so leat alert?

LA: Large population center on the west coast

DC: Far away, but take out politicians

Seattle area: Good size population center with army/air/navy bases nearby

Portland: Don't want to piss off the US, so target a minor population center, and maybe they won't retaliate, and instead, accept small losses and come to the negotiation table.

Yeah, probably not, but who knows what an insane person might decide... ;-)

 

[Skier]

There is Bangor submarine base, Bremerton Navy Base, Everett Navy Base, Langely AFB, McChord AFB, and Fort Lewis Army base around the Washington State area.

I think most of those are correct, but Langley is in Virginia.

 

[Koda]

if their nuclear technology is anything like this NK training photo, we probably dont have anything to worry about....

 

[Skier]

probably not streams and watersheds here in the urban/city environment, we dump raw sewage into them regularly.... if a big quake hit, our sewer system pipes would fail...
Its important to know that the Lifestraw and the Sawyer filter, while they work great for hiking and emergencies... are not purifiers, your right about viruses.

True enough. That's a fair assessment... I wasn't really thinking of the Willamette or Columbia Rivers, rather rivers/streams/creeks you'd find out in more natural areas, like you'd find on hikes (or more rural areas).

 

[uscsoldier]

So.......you were a missile guy? Was that at Malstrom or Minot? I used to do "orientation" rides in all the aircraft types assigned to my units.......March, to low level bombing runs in central Oregon, northern Montana and Nevada on the way home. Sometimes 18 hrs and there is no place in a B52 for an extra crewman. The only place to stand upright is on the ladder between decks. The KC135's were better......I rode on the first mission refueling a B1b with my wing commander. General Lemay had retired near the base and spent a lot of time in the O club.....great guy. I really enjoyed getting to know him. The 15th commander General Pitts had flown missions for him in WW2. Pitt's wife was from Spokane (as was I) and she was very nice to me making sure I always had an invitation to fly with the General when he was traveling to Fairchild.

I was a Desk Officer for TSC at Peterson

 

[Ura-Ki]

Me thinks Rocket Boy will Choot his missiles at L.A. San Fran, Seattle, D.C. and N.Y.C! Any thing he has left will double up on the first two! He is gonna wanna go out with a bang, and take as many of us with him as he can! Don't think he'll get specific targeting, but area is good enough! A near miss might be Burbank, or Oakland, or Portland! to his mind, its all about getting them here, and close enough is good enough!

 

[Argonaut]

I was a Desk Officer for TSC at Peterson

I looked it up.......I think in my day we just called it NORAD. The hot deal those guys had going in my time was the DEW line defense system and off course Cheyanne Mountain. Very cool stuff.....good job keeping us safe.

 

[billdeserthills]

Find a desk and go hide under it. Stay away from the windows, unless of course your desk is in that row. I guess they will move it after the blast? We never did find out!

Actually a safer place to hide is beside the desk, not underneath it. When the ceiling falls in if you are under the desk you could be squashed...

 

[Ura-Ki]

Ironey, I live about 40 miles south and west of Cheyenne Mt and Kit Peak (I can see Kit peak from my deck) I feel safer here then any where else! If any one were to try a nuke here, the chances of any thing getting to me would pretty slim, the winds are ALWAYS from the west and north, so noting to worry about! The Old saying, the closer to danger, the safer you are!

 

[Skier]

I wouldn't be demoralized, feel defeated or held hostage if he took out Portland. It isn't as if we had undergone a bloody 4 year war that we were obviously loosing at an accelerating rate. It would be his only shot, if he shot 8 weapons, 2 might get through, China has already given permission for us to strike him as long as he shoots first. I wouldn't miss anything in Portland with the exception of Salty's Resturaunt and look at the liberals it would take out.

This made me think of a thought experiment I had the other day... What if we doubled the number of states in the United States, using the following algorithm. You take the top three largest cities (by population) in each state, and even though they might be physically separated, you declare them as "New <State Name>," so, for example, in Oregon, you'd take Portland, Salem, and Eugene, and the would be come "New Oregon" with the rest of the state remaining "Oregon". In Washington, you take Seattle, Spokane, and Tacoma, and make them "New Washington." etc, etc, etc... Now, each of those "new" states get to take all their current government officials with them, and all the read of the "original [and more rural] states" get to elect their own new government officials. This might yield better, more appropriate governments for the less urban areas, and maybe tip the fed in a better directions with the 100 new senators and the large influx of new representatives from our less urban area states. BTW, I debated on whether to go with "Old <state>" or "New <state>" for the urban areas; On one hand, they would be the "Old" government, so that would fit, but given how they'd probably want to be perceived as "new and progressive," I decided to grant them to "New" name, but they have to keep the old government.

 

[Argonaut]

Me thinks Rocket Boy will Choot his missiles at L.A. San Fran, Seattle, D.C. and N.Y.C! Any thing he has left will double up on the first two! He is gonna wanna go out with a bang, and take as many of us with him as he can! Don't think he'll get specific targeting, but area is good enough! A near miss might be Burbank, or Oakland, or Portland! to his mind, its all about getting them here, and close enough is good enough!

Confirm it with USCSOLDIER (he would know) but I believe the trajectory would take his weapons over Alaska in route to the conus. I really believe we have very effective technology to intercept them in route. I am not saying none would get through but most wouldn't make it to re entry.