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I don't see primer prices coming down much. All the brass they are made from comes from India or Turkey via the slow boats. When transportation costs go up the goods they move pays the price.
 
There is about a half-pound of brass in a thousand primers.

Coincidentally my daughter and I are cleaning out my garage at this very moment, and I have a couple of five-gallon buckets full of scrap brass. Anyone know if it's a good time to take it to the scrap yard? How is the price of brass now?
 
45ACP Baby!
I couldn't sleep so 5:30AM pulling on the handle 45ACp Titegroup 4.8gr 185gr Berry Hollow Base Round Nose COAL 1.240. Ran out of Berry and completed the run with Hornady XTP 185gr.

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There is about a half-pound of brass in a thousand primers.

Coincidentally my daughter and I are cleaning out my garage at this very moment, and I have a couple of five-gallon buckets full of scrap brass. Anyone know if it's a good time to take it to the scrap yard? How is the price of brass now?
A month ago it $2.30 a pound.
@ at least 50# per bucket you will be able to buy some primers.
 
I see the guys asking $150 to $250/k at the gun shows too. I figure they're just fishing for suckers, and I walk right on by. Actually I walked on by the guy with the $85 primers too, because I have enough for myself for the foreseeable future. I don't have cases of them laying around; I just don't shoot or load high volume. A few bricks will last me a very long time, hopefully until prices come back down (if they ever do- I'm not overly confident in my predictions.)

I'm not any kind of expert on the subject. This supply/demand imbalance has gone on longer than any I've ever seen, to the point where everyone in the supply chain has adjusted to the "new normal". I'm sure there's record profits in the industry. Free market forces have been slow to react, for various reasons, but they will in time (I hope!)

I grew up on a dairy farm, didn't leave until I was 25. I read the industry news and the experts' market predictions, watched the market rise and fall, saw producers riding high, saw many go broke.

"Record demand for dairy products! High prices are the new normal for the foreseeable future!" the headlines would announce. The farmers would all add cows to their herds, and flood the market with milk. Prices would inevitably drop within a couple years. Those who hadn't been careful with their money would go broke, and/or there would be a government buyout, sending thousands of dairy cows to the slaughterhouses. Production would drop, driving prices up again.

You have your cost of production: raw materials, labor, overhead, etc.. Then there's distribution and retail- all the costs of getting a product to market and onto store shelves. When there's exceptional profit being made in this supply chain, sooner or later production will increase to meet demand, until at some point profit margins are low enough to discourage further increases in production. Ultimately the market sets the price, not the producers. The cost of production has gone up due to inflation, but I still think that there's plenty of room for retail prices to fall when/if supply and demand normalize.

The biggest problem with primers is that it's not as easy to increase production. Building new production lines is very expensive, and nobody wants to spend millions starting up a new plant, only to have to shutter it when the eventual drop in demand happens. I think they're finally starting to get the idea that this bump in demand is more than a short term bubble, but it still takes years to build new plants and get new product to market.
Plus it's a pretty touchy business to get into. Lots of liability. If there's a problem it's a big kaboom. I'm sure insurance companies get that deer in the headlight look when you want to lay some insurance on your primer factory.
 
I really hope you're right. The three gun shows that I've attended lately around here didn't reflect the same reality that you describe.

If you go to the CCI website, the retail prices they show for new primers are $100. With this price basis, it doesn't stand to reason that scalpers will be able to lower their at-show prices much. Unless they managed to get the primers wholesale, somehow, but they still need a margin to make a profit.

Re. price fixing collusion. There are so few manufacturers of primers that I don' think they need to communicate and agree to know where price resistance is. What they know is that primers sell out quickly as fast as they are offered at current prices. If demand satisfaction does catch up, there is the intervening inflation that has occurred since primers were $30 a brick. I don't know if a $50 price will adequately offset that dynamic. But here's to hoping.

Back to the CCI website, strangely enough, primers on plastic strips are priced at $60 something a brick. These must be (unpopular) old stock that reflect earlier and therefore lower manufacturing and distribution costs.
Wow, thanks. I use an RCBS APS that utilizes these strips, I'd better get over there and order a bunch.
 
I thought when Remington came back on line that the primer squeeze would return to somewhat normal 2x prices and not stay up at 3x and beyond. I'm used to seeing prices at around $33/k prior to COVID.
 
Thanks for the reminder John.

Aloha, Mark
Mark,
You are more than welcome.
I saw the opportunity for a shout out and I took it.
Didn't go to a show or participate in one last weekend and I'm ready.
And for more shout outs.........
Carson, WA next Saturday o8oo to I think 1300 and
The Arms Collectors of Southwest Washington the following Saturday 0800 tp 1300.
That will be 3 weekends in a row of participation and then I will be ready for a short break.
Until I get the break and then I will want another show.
Hmmmm...
Never satisfied I guess.
John
 
I have a couple buckets of scrap bullet jackets. The scrap yard didn't want it when I went in there a couple years ago. I hate to throw them away, and have looked into making a furnace to melt them down. The thing that concerned me about that was getting the brass hot enough to melt the copper alloy bullet jackets will vaporize the residual lead on them. One would have to be extremely cautious to avoid breathing any of that.
 

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