There’s a one-in-three chance of a ‘massive’ disaster that could be worse than COVID-19, says Deutsche Bank

[rick benjamin]

Still stuck on promulgators. When it happens, gonna hurt a lot?

 

[Hayharnel]

I think thats the ones with all the teeth? LOL

 

[CountryGent]

Well let's see.

Who is more likely to "fudge the numbers" on CV-19?

WHO? CDC? Almost ALL of the doctors and scientists?

Or politicians and conspiracy theorists?

Trick question: it is the Lizard Aliens. Curse those reptilian overlords! (I joke, but there are plenty of people who don't understand and/or believe in basic principles of biology, yet bizarrely feel qualified to summarily dismiss the consensus of essentially the entire scientific community. Even the most optimistic among us lament the stunning degree of antiscience bias present in our society.)

 

[The Heretic]

Trick question: it is the Lizard Aliens. Curse those reptilian overlords! (I joke, but there are plenty of people who don't understand and/or believe in basic principles of biology, yet bizarrely feel qualified to summarily dismiss the consensus of essentially the entire scientific community. Even the most optimistic among us lament the stunning degree of antiscience bias present in our society.)

 

[308]

Trick question: it is the Lizard Aliens. Curse those reptilian overlords! (I joke, but there are plenty of people who don't understand and/or believe in basic principles of biology, yet bizarrely feel qualified to summarily dismiss the consensus of essentially the entire scientific community. Even the most optimistic among us lament the stunning degree of antiscience bias present in our society.)

Do you feel the same way about gun control and globul warming? There is consensus amongst those in their own echo chamber...probably a lot of PhDs sitting at that table as well. Have you considered why to global death rate of Covid is approx 451,000 at this point when approx 120,000 claimed deaths in the USA. 1/4th the world deaths reported in the USA, which means densely populated 3rd world countries with bad water, air pollution, poor sanitation no doubt make up a smaller percentage than the USA? Must be the maths I don't understand even though globally speaking, one has a 0.000058-ish chance of dying from Covid. Seems odd...

Regardless, we have bigger problems on the way

 

[thorborg]

Given the proper amount of hype anything can be turned into a disaster. I found a gal on a trail screaming as if her finger had been severed with her boyfriend supposedly "running for help". The reality of it was a splinter in the tip of her finger and just barely under the nail. If I must be fair, it was big enough I could actually see it with the unaided eye (just barely)
I took out my pocket knife which sent her into another frenzy but finally got her calmed down, gave the finger a little squeeze and flipped out the tiny splinter. just to give her something to do, I told her to suck the poison out for two minutes or she would lose her hand and to find another boy friend. I continued on my way in disbelief and then thinking people like that vote!

 

[2506]

The other thing about such stats is when they are applied to an individual.

E.G., they may claim you have a X in Y chance of being attacked by a grizzly bear. But if you, as an individual, never go anywhere that there is a grizzly bear, then you have really a near zero chance of being attacked by a grizzly bear. OTOH, if you spend most of your time in an area where grizzlies frequent, you probably have a much higher chance of being attacked.

In short, while the stats may be true for a large sample of a population, they may quite invalid for you as an individual.

That aside, the article talks about large scale events that impact a lot of people, pretty much regardless of where and who they are.

This is why I quit surfing. Sharks can't bite me if I don't go I the ocean.

 

[gmerkt]

1/4th the world deaths reported in the USA

I look at those little world maps in the newspaper that show Covid 19 virus infection concentrations. China has hardly any ink on it. I submit that deaths from the virus in China are way more than reported to WHO or anyplace else. The Red Chinese gov't wants to play it down for political reasons; the Chinese trait of saving face reinforces this notion.

 

[The Heretic]

I look at those little world maps in the newspaper that show Covid 19 virus infection concentrations. China has hardly any ink on it. I submit that deaths from the virus in China are way more than reported to WHO or anyplace else. The Red Chinese gov't wants to play it down for political reasons; the Chinese trait of saving face reinforces this notion.

taking their cue from Trump (who doesn't want to run tests so that there are fewer results)?

 

[gmerkt]

taking their cue from Trump (who doesn't want to run tests so that there are fewer results)?

This might be in his mind but in general, US society is transparent to the point that he can't do much to juggle the numbers. It's interesting to note how a public health issue has gotten so much political spin.

Personally, I think the Covid 19 test thing is in some ways misguided. I don't see it as an accurate measure of anything. Testing has some value in that those who are determined to have it can be quarantined and treated. A fallacy of testing, however, is that there is the incubation period of up to 14 days. So a person may test negative one day, and then actually come down with the virus the next day. To say that X number of tests have been given doesn't in itself accomplish anything except maybe PR value.

The other thing is, lots of tests are given not as a result of suspected infection but as a screening precaution. Meaning, for example, to get a hands-on appointment with a doctor, some facilities require the test before you may see same. In this case it's purely a precaution, good for that day, as a statistic that will "add one to the tests given today," but that information is meaningless. I guess theoretically, if you tested everyone in the country all at once, those infected on that day could all be sorted out at once and quarantined and the spread would be reduced. But that isn't practical nor even possible. Trying to use the total number of tests given under the scattershot approach doesn't quantify accomplishment in the fight against the virus.

I also have my serious doubts about so called tracking and tracing. This may work in some societies where the population is by nature more obedient or physically repressed. In the US, that isn't the case. Unless a person doesn't go anywhere or has very limited interpersonal contact, the tracking-tracing thing is futile. Okay, so I put on a mask and go to Fred Meyer. I do my shopping, and five days later I come down with the virus. How you gonna track and trace all those anonymous people I walked past in Fred Meyer?

In the US, people are free to do what they want, even if it may not be in their own best interest. So when the sun comes out, they flock to the beach and many ignore the distancing thing. Nobody is getting arrested for violation. As they might in Red China or even South Korea for that matter.

This is just my opinion, I'm not a doctor nor a public health specialist. It's just how it seems to me as a layman. Mrs. Merkt and I try to be observant, do the mask thing, etc. I admit that this is easier if a person is retired and doesn't have to worry about employment. I perfectly understand why many people are impatient to have "opening up" get going.

 

[Member 5605]

Wrong, there is a 100% chance of a natural disaster bigger than the Chinese corona virus, its just a matter of time, my guess is based on history, that it will be a meteor or comet.

How about The Siberian Traps round #2?

 

[Ringo]

THERE'S A 100% CHANCE THE PERSON WHO WROTE THIS STORY HAS HIGHER EDUCATION, CAN'T FIND HIS @SS WITH BOTH HAND AND DOING NOTHING MORE THAN YELLING FIRE IN A CROWDED THEATER... OH BY THE WAY... THERE'S A 99.999999% CHANCE HE'S A DEMOCRAT, STILL WETS THE BED AND AFTER DEFUNDING THE POLICE WILL BE THE FIRST ONE TO CALL FOR HELP...
SEMPER FI

 

[techxile]

I look at those little world maps in the newspaper that show Covid 19 virus infection concentrations. China has hardly any ink on it. I submit that deaths from the virus in China are way more than reported to WHO or anyplace else. The Red Chinese gov't wants to play it down for political reasons; the Chinese trait of saving face reinforces this notion.

Here's a link to look at - Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

Look at the line for China and notice that it basically tops out at about 84,000 cases. Notice how no other nation's graph looks like that except for some small countries with low numbers of cases. Notice how implausible this is. So of course the Chinese are lying and they have more cases than that.

 

[cookie]

This is why I quit surfing. Sharks can't bite me if I don't go I the ocean.

Land sharks? What about them?

 

[PDX1953]

I heard that the majority of all accidents happen within a mile of where you live so I moved.

 

[2506]

Land sharks? What about them?

Never answer the door!

 

[The Heretic]

WHAT DOES GOAT RODEO MEAN?
A goat rodeo is a slang term for something going totally, unbelievably, disastrously wrong, and there's nothing left to do but to sit back and watch the trainwreck.
In other words, a goat rodeo is a chaotic situation, fiasco, or, more vulgarly, a bubblegumshow. And yes, there are also literal goat rodeos.

 

[Member 52301]

Inflation, the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar and people PUSHING for negative interest rates are a FEW examples of things being one big cluster you know what.

The KING OF DEBT aka President Trump loves negative interest rates. So do other Rs and Ds.

Before I get slammed, Trump calls HIMSELF the KING OF DEBT and laughs about it now as he did in the PAST before he got into politics.

ADD in the huge deficits and the so called budget.

Insert vomit sign here.

Old Lady Cate who is a FISCAL conservative who detests both parties more and more as each day goes by.

 

[P7M13]

taking their cue from Trump (who doesn't want to run tests so that there are fewer results)?

Here's a link to look at - Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

Look at the line for China and notice that it basically tops out at about 84,000 cases. Notice how no other nation's graph looks like that except for some small countries with low numbers of cases. Notice how implausible this is. So of course the Chinese are lying and they have more cases than that.

If you looked at the numbers China was reporting back in early 2020, there was an exact, unchanging ratio between contracted cases and deaths. Rubbish from day one.

 

[techxile]

If you looked at the numbers China was reporting back in early 2020, there was an exact, unchanging ratio between contracted cases and deaths. Rubbish from day one.

Well yes, one of the most criminal things about this thing was the way a lot of the early hysteria was based almost entirely on "data" from China and extrapolations from it. Can you share a link showing the cases/deaths from China back then? It would be odd if the ratio was exact. You're supposed to add in some random factors when faking data. Then again, one of the things that characterizes "late stage" Communist regimes is ineptitude as competent and motivated people have been replaced over time by lazy hacks.