There’s a one-in-three chance of a ‘massive’ disaster that could be worse than COVID-19, says Deutsche Bank

[EHJ]

I watched a volcano blow up once.
Not far from here...

 

[CLT65]

Man, you must be OLD! Are you a boomer?

Mt. St. Helens was a helluva boomer.

 

[shibbershabber]

Five to one baby
One in five
No one here gets out alive....
Jim Morrison....The Doors
Andy

"They got the guns but we got the numbers.... gonna win, yeah, we're taking over"

Seems a little more appropriate for today

 

[DunRanull]

Indonesia tsunami was December 2004, right around Christmastime as I recall...

MY infant grandson died that same night- crib death they said..

 

[308]

The tsunami that hit Japan killed under 19,000 people. So far worldwide COVID 19 death rate is 451,000. The tsunami was the biggest natural disaster that I know of in the last 10 years and it pales in comparison to the COVID death toll.

So there is a 0.0000578 chance of dying from Covidiot1984

That's scary, man...especially when one knows ~200,000 people die in the USA each year from Hospital Acquired Infections and from taking properly prescribed pharmaceuticals. But...shhhhh, about that.

Edited

 

[cookie]

The big one . the big Earth quake all west of I 5 will be toast. We have a wimpy society so afraid. Watch out for the KILLER HORNETS oh wait that was so last month we need a new crisis.

 

[partsed]

I watched a volcano blow up once.
Not far from here...

An awesome display of nature!!

 

[Snip]

I looked it up, its the
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami
I am talking about, wiki says 227,898 dead and thats just in a few hours.

Ok good, 16 years ago. Even still as great of a catastrophe that was, it still is only half of the damage of COVID19.

 

[Hayharnel]

Regular Flu killed 79,400 US Citizens in 2018 before they started fudging numbers for the China Flu.

 

[Hayharnel]

COVID-19: There have been approximately 449,397 deaths reported worldwide. In the U.S, 117,717 people have died of COVID-19, as of June 18, 2020.*

Flu: The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.

From Johns Hopkins medical website

 

[Member 34319]

Like any highly polarized and politics event, facts and reporting run rampant and we will likely never what really happened.

Maybe 50-100 years from now they might teach kids about it in history class, maybe.

 

[308]

COVID-19: There have been approximately 449,397 deaths reported worldwide. In the U.S, 117,717 people have died of COVID-19, as of June 18, 2020.*

Flu: The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.

It's not the facts that matter but rather the seriousness of the promulgation

 

[Hayharnel]

Right people would bubblegum there pants if they knew how many people died of the flu!

 

[The Heretic]

Well let's see.

Who is more likely to "fudge the numbers" on CV-19?

WHO? CDC? Almost ALL of the doctors and scientists?

Or politicians and conspiracy theorists?

That's all I am going to say on the numbers and so called "hoax" and conspiracy theories.

Carry on.

 

[Hayharnel]

What's July?

I got a heads up. It's the LGTBQ XYZ HE HE Naked bike ride take over 2020 style!
Don't tell anyone

 

[Tony617]

Wrong, there is a 100% chance of a natural disaster bigger than the Chinese corona virus, its just a matter of time, my guess is based on history, that it will be a meteor or comet.

There is the Cascadia Subduction Zone that is overdue for an earthquake. That earthquake happens, it will probably wipe the west coast of Northen Californa, Oregon and Washington off of the map due to a large tsunami will hit and go all the way to Japan as well.

Cascadia subduction zone - Wikipedia

 

[MannyGlocks]

Glad monstrous hurricanes and tornadoes are all I have to deal with...

 

[techxile]

There’s a one-in-three chance of a ‘massive’ disaster that could be worse than COVID-19, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade.

www.marketwatch.com

2020 reminds me of the old joke about how this guy convinced the government to put all the mobile homes in one place in Kansas as a solution to the problem of tornadoes; all the tornadoes in the country converged on that one spot in a few hours and then they had no more tornadoes for years. Or something like that.

I've actually read this same article several times in the past, by which I mean I've seen the same kind of fear-mongering over the idea of the likelihood of "something really bad" happening in some period of time. I don't know if this is a specialty of Deutshe Bank or if they just cribbed the technique from others.

The technique relies on the nature of probability when it comes to calculating the probability of any one of a set of events occurring in some time period. It turns out that the way to compute this is to compute the probability of none of those events occurring in that time. Let's say you want to know how likely it is that you can roll a 6 sided die 3 times without seeing a 1. It's easier than it might seem. Just look at the probability of getting something other than a 1 for a given roll. This is 5/6. The combined probability of independent events is found by multiplying the probability of each event together. So the likelihood of not seeing a 1 in 3 rolls is 5/6 raised to the 3rd power or 125/216 which is about 58%. Thus, the likelihood of seeing a 1 at least once in 3 rolls is about 42%.

Now you know how to write an "OMG, there's a 1/3 chance of (this, that, the other, or something else,....) happening in the next X years. You just look up the probability of each of a set of rather unlikely events occurring in that time, subtract from 1 so you have the probability of it not occuring, and then multiply these inverse probabilities together until your combined probability of not having any of those things happen is down to say, 2/3. Now you can write, quite correctly, that the probability of at least one of those bad things happening is 1/3. Anyone with access to Wikipedia and a good imagination can produce this crap.

The globalized ruling class is very interested in developing a new system of social control based on the clever use of statistical facts offered out of context and without any caveats to drive mass hysteria in the directions they prefer. Another good example is the current media chatter about the putative "second wave" of Covid-19. The "evidence" they've typically produced for this is always based on some localized outbreak in some state with a low number of cases to start with. Since the US is a large country with diverse regions, you can almost always find such a place. In this video the presenter gives the example of the media focus on Alabama, where there was a small outbreak a while back. The media then quietly forgot about Alabama, without of course issuing a retraction or correction and has now moved on to Arizona.

The overall goal of all these counsels of fear, panic, and insecurity coming out of mainstream media seems to be to convince people to surrender their freedoms while political elites with close ties to the media are always on hand to offer "solutions" that just happen to expand their power and limit our freedom.

 

[The Heretic]

The other thing about such stats is when they are applied to an individual.

E.G., they may claim you have a X in Y chance of being attacked by a grizzly bear. But if you, as an individual, never go anywhere that there is a grizzly bear, then you have really a near zero chance of being attacked by a grizzly bear. OTOH, if you spend most of your time in an area where grizzlies frequent, you probably have a much higher chance of being attacked.

In short, while the stats may be true for a large sample of a population, they may quite invalid for you as an individual.

That aside, the article talks about large scale events that impact a lot of people, pretty much regardless of where and who they are.

 

[titsonritz]

On no, we're all going to die again.