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I had a conversation with a friend about the probability of other intelligent life in the universe. He thinks there is none, so I did some thinking and napkin math and sent him an email. I thought some people here might find it interesting too.
Speed of light: 299,792,458 meters per second. So let's round it off to 300,000,000 meters per second.
Fastest speed achieved by us in space: 252,792,000 meters per hour. So let's be generous, add 20%, and round that off to 300,000,000 meters per hour.
If we compare those two metrics then we have only achieved 1/3600th of the speed of light, or 0.03% of the speed of light.
Now, the closest stars to our solar system are Alpha Centauri A and B (a binary pair) and they are 4.22 light years from Earth.
At our current fastest speed it (with the rounding increase of 20%) would take 15,192 years to travel to Alpha Centauri A and B.
If we were able to speed up 100x then it would still take 152 years. That would require 3-5 generations of people living and dying on the space craft. That is just to get to the closest stars in our galaxy.
Now, the Milky Way. It is estimated to be 100,000 light years across, and contain 100 billion stars.
With the 100x speed up it would take us 3,600,000 years to traverse the galaxy.
Moreover, our galaxy is moving through space. It is estimated that the Milky Way will collide with the Andromeda galaxy in 3.5 billion years. This is important since it is entirely feasible that we could miss a radio signal simply because of this movement.
I believe there is other intelligent life out there. It is feasible they are less advanced or more advanced than us. Heck, it has only been 114 years since the Wright brothers flew at Kitty Hawk.
Look at Mars. It is evident there were liquid-water flows on the surface of Mars, and that perhaps due to a failure of the planet's magnetic field the solar winds gradually stripped away the atmosphere (and any life on the planet).
So even if an advanced society was able to travel at 100x our current best speed, they're probably 250+ years away from us.
Perhaps they're on the way…
Then after sending that email an article appeared.
Seven Earth-size planets have been discovered orbiting a tiny nearby star, and six of them appear warm enough that liquid water--necessary for life--could exist on their surfaces, European astronomers said.
Called Trappist-1, the dwarf star, located about 40 light years away from Earth in the constellation Aquarius, is so small that it is barely bigger than Jupiter, the largest planet in our own solar system. Yet it is home to the largest collection of Earth-sized planets found in the galaxy so far, the scientists said. They made their findings public in the journal Nature Wednesday.
Per my previous posting, if we were able to go 100x faster than today it would take 14,400 years to get to Trappist-1.
Speed of light: 299,792,458 meters per second. So let's round it off to 300,000,000 meters per second.
Fastest speed achieved by us in space: 252,792,000 meters per hour. So let's be generous, add 20%, and round that off to 300,000,000 meters per hour.
If we compare those two metrics then we have only achieved 1/3600th of the speed of light, or 0.03% of the speed of light.
Now, the closest stars to our solar system are Alpha Centauri A and B (a binary pair) and they are 4.22 light years from Earth.
At our current fastest speed it (with the rounding increase of 20%) would take 15,192 years to travel to Alpha Centauri A and B.
If we were able to speed up 100x then it would still take 152 years. That would require 3-5 generations of people living and dying on the space craft. That is just to get to the closest stars in our galaxy.
Now, the Milky Way. It is estimated to be 100,000 light years across, and contain 100 billion stars.
With the 100x speed up it would take us 3,600,000 years to traverse the galaxy.
Moreover, our galaxy is moving through space. It is estimated that the Milky Way will collide with the Andromeda galaxy in 3.5 billion years. This is important since it is entirely feasible that we could miss a radio signal simply because of this movement.
I believe there is other intelligent life out there. It is feasible they are less advanced or more advanced than us. Heck, it has only been 114 years since the Wright brothers flew at Kitty Hawk.
Look at Mars. It is evident there were liquid-water flows on the surface of Mars, and that perhaps due to a failure of the planet's magnetic field the solar winds gradually stripped away the atmosphere (and any life on the planet).
So even if an advanced society was able to travel at 100x our current best speed, they're probably 250+ years away from us.
Perhaps they're on the way…
Then after sending that email an article appeared.
Seven Earth-size planets have been discovered orbiting a tiny nearby star, and six of them appear warm enough that liquid water--necessary for life--could exist on their surfaces, European astronomers said.
Called Trappist-1, the dwarf star, located about 40 light years away from Earth in the constellation Aquarius, is so small that it is barely bigger than Jupiter, the largest planet in our own solar system. Yet it is home to the largest collection of Earth-sized planets found in the galaxy so far, the scientists said. They made their findings public in the journal Nature Wednesday.
Per my previous posting, if we were able to go 100x faster than today it would take 14,400 years to get to Trappist-1.
