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amen!
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The Dollar is about to get SPANKED
- Thread Starter Randini
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amen!
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So its ok to borrow and print money non-stop as a strategy for getting out of debt?
heck, I need a few more credit cards.
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The national debt is not important; it is just numbers on pieces of paper. Nations have reneged on debts in the past and while we have the strongest military in the world we can change the rules any time we want, if necessary. The Soviet Union was brutalized in World War 2, both in cost of lives and in infrastructure. Then they had to live under a despotic maniac who murdered and imprisoned millions of his own people. Despite all of that, the people of the former Soviet Union still exist today. They wake up in the morning, they go to work, they eat, they marry and have families, grow old and die. Yes, most of the people are impoverished compared to the average American, but life goes on. The human race is more resilient than you think. I encourage you to put down the economics book and pick up a history book. The things humanity has been through and lived through in the past several thousand years is shocking and horrifying, yet we are still here today.
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no body is arguing that it will be the end of the humanity. But if/when US defaults on the debt, there will be absolute chaos, and the life time saving of yours and mine will be worthless. That will probably cause golbal depression as well, and nobody wants to live through that again.
Look at this debt clock - http://www.usdebtclock.org/
US has unfunded liablity of 100 Trilion dollars. We gather about 4 trillion dollars a year in tax revenue for federal/state/city. With high interest rate on current debt, plus no surplus of our own tax revenue, you can see how long it would take to pay the debt off. current projection is 100+ years.
We need to do something in terms of cutting Medicare/Social Security or raise tax to 75% or just default on our US debt. Something is going to happen...
Look at this debt clock - http://www.usdebtclock.org/
US has unfunded liablity of 100 Trilion dollars. We gather about 4 trillion dollars a year in tax revenue for federal/state/city. With high interest rate on current debt, plus no surplus of our own tax revenue, you can see how long it would take to pay the debt off. current projection is 100+ years.
We need to do something in terms of cutting Medicare/Social Security or raise tax to 75% or just default on our US debt. Something is going to happen...
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I guess I misinterpret a lot of the doomsday rhetoric as being "the end of the human race as we know it." I worry about the future, but I also realize that there are only a few things in my life that I truly have power over. I can only live each day, doing the best I can, and leave the rest to God, fate, or karma. I am comforted by reading history and learning that people have been through terrible things before and still manage to survive and pull together. I hope I never have to experience what they did, but I also realize that if they can do it, then so can I. Somehow, somewhere, I will find the strength within me to survive, because I have always been a fighter and I hate losing.
I don't have a lot of money to lose. I'm a young person who has just barely started saving for retirement, but if I were someone with a lot of money and I believed the dollar and economy were going to seriously tank, I would consider pulling your money out of retirement, even with the tax penalties, and buy tangible things that have always been worth something... notabley, land, weapons, and the means be self reliant, such as with solar panels, crops, livestock, etc..
If you don't have a lot of money, like me, then you can only do so much. Buy water, canned food, ammo, guns that are not registered (avoid FFL sellers), warm sturdy clothing, maps, batteries, etc.
Out of curiosity though, what do you think would happen if the U.S. announced tomorrow on CNN they were not going to honor any foreign debts, but would still honor local debts, and that they were initiating a price freeze on all goods and services?
I don't have a lot of money to lose. I'm a young person who has just barely started saving for retirement, but if I were someone with a lot of money and I believed the dollar and economy were going to seriously tank, I would consider pulling your money out of retirement, even with the tax penalties, and buy tangible things that have always been worth something... notabley, land, weapons, and the means be self reliant, such as with solar panels, crops, livestock, etc..
If you don't have a lot of money, like me, then you can only do so much. Buy water, canned food, ammo, guns that are not registered (avoid FFL sellers), warm sturdy clothing, maps, batteries, etc.
Out of curiosity though, what do you think would happen if the U.S. announced tomorrow on CNN they were not going to honor any foreign debts, but would still honor local debts, and that they were initiating a price freeze on all goods and services?
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I think China would decide to take something along the lines of Alaska as payment.
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Ahh... but you see, we have the military might and a gigantic ocean on both sides of our continent to not only protect us, but to create a gigantic supply line to any potential invading nation. Wargaming has taught me that for every troop and piece of equipment you wish to bring to battle, you need a corresponding ship or amphibious vehicle to transport it. This not only drives up the costs for the invader, but also increased the risk, as entire battalions of soldiers and high tech equipment can be lost by sinking a transport ship with a couple of well placed torpedoes.
The Chinese may have a million man army, but getting them across the water is the biggest challenge and in the process of doing so, internal and nearby external Chinese threats may decide it is a perfect time to cause problems.
Again, we only have to look at history to see that the English Channel saved Great Britain from a German invasion at the height of their military power and after blitzkrieging through France and the Low Countries. The British retreat at Dunkirk was a disaster, but the natural barrier of the English Channel prevented the Germans from following through on their decisive victory.
So again, I ask what people think will happen if the United States of America were to renege on all foreign debts, close their borders, and adopt an isolationist foreign policy? If the German nation could make war against most of the world (and many people thought they would win at the time), how much more could modern America do?
The Chinese may have a million man army, but getting them across the water is the biggest challenge and in the process of doing so, internal and nearby external Chinese threats may decide it is a perfect time to cause problems.
Again, we only have to look at history to see that the English Channel saved Great Britain from a German invasion at the height of their military power and after blitzkrieging through France and the Low Countries. The British retreat at Dunkirk was a disaster, but the natural barrier of the English Channel prevented the Germans from following through on their decisive victory.
So again, I ask what people think will happen if the United States of America were to renege on all foreign debts, close their borders, and adopt an isolationist foreign policy? If the German nation could make war against most of the world (and many people thought they would win at the time), how much more could modern America do?
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We are fighting a two front war as it stands, we dont have the "might" to fight a 3rd. As far as logistics go China isnt all that far from Alaska. They also have a much larger industrial base than us at the moment need less ramp up time than the U.S.
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Acturus, that's kind of an interesting question you've put out there.
As far as I am aware, the U.S. owes the majority of its debt to China and any retaliation would probably originate from there.
I think what people would generally perceive as "the worst outcome", would probably result in air strikes on the West Coast from the Chinese, because without the assistance of the Canadians or Mexicans, it would be pretty hard to physically invade the U.S. I'm not sure that airstrikes would be very successful, simply because apart from California, we really don't have a pile of viable targets. This would probably do a lot to demoralize the average person, but beyond that, I'm not sure it would be that effective - even if we completely lacked air defenses.
But ... the real worst case scenario is the U.N. placing sanctions on the U.S. and the Chinese cutting off all imports into this country. Though we will be better off without all their cheap crap, we now rely heavily on China to feed us. Most of the agricultural seed that is used in this country is actually grown in China. Yes, even if the company who produces it is based here, simply because most seed companies contract it out to China because it can be done so much cheaper over there. As I work in that industry, I can tell you that it's only we little guys who don't do it and most of the little guys still end up with Chinese seed because they lack the resources to breed their own and must buy it in. Most of the stuff they buy in comes from a California company, who I know for a fact (because I know their manager), contracts 95% of their production to China.
Though we have a much more powerful military than the Germans ever did during WW2, one thing the Germans had that we don't is an ability to be self-reliant, because American agriculture is in absolute shambles. Less than 1% of our population works in agriculture and the number of farmers, acres in production and overall productivity is heading into a fast decline. Areas once heavily devoted to food crops are now completely out of production and have been razed to make way for subdivisions or mini-malls, while much of the farmland that still remains is either lying fallow or has been switched over to grow crops such as turfgrass or oil seeds for bio-diesel. This is especially true in Oregon. Meanwhile, California (which produces more food than any other state), not only experiences the problems we have in Oregon, but to make matters worse, water rationing is laying waste to California's food production at an alarming rate and they expect to ration water even more in 2009. Right now, just about the only agricultural product some areas in California now produce is actually firewood. That's what's become of a lot of almond, citrus and olive groves down there.
If we had sanctions placed against us and the flow of foreign seed and food was instantly cut off, mass starvation would be a fact of life in this country. If people think that can't happen, keep in mind that nearly 8% of the U.S. population did starve to death during the Great Depression and the agricultural situation today is a lot more severe than it was in the 1930's. During the 30's, the only blow to American agriculture was the Dust Bowl which took out most of the wheat and corn in the Mid West and did not effect food production elsewhere.
That situation would improve pretty fast because there would be a real rush to rebuild American agriculture as quickly as possible with the implementation of home gardens, community gardens, switching existing production back to REAL food, reclaimating former farmland and socializing existing farms through imminent domain (don't ever think they wouldn't do it), etc. - but the fastest that you could make much headway is 4 to 8 months, which is the time required to grow most crops to maturity from seed (never mind all that other stuff).
As you can imagine, a **** of a lot of people could starve in that amount of time and there is nothing quite like famine that can destroy a culture quickly, as people tend to lose it when the bellies of their children are empty and will stop at nothing to fill them.
But if everyone was actually prepared and agriculture was rebuilt in this country, that sort of thing could be averted.
As far as I am aware, the U.S. owes the majority of its debt to China and any retaliation would probably originate from there.
I think what people would generally perceive as "the worst outcome", would probably result in air strikes on the West Coast from the Chinese, because without the assistance of the Canadians or Mexicans, it would be pretty hard to physically invade the U.S. I'm not sure that airstrikes would be very successful, simply because apart from California, we really don't have a pile of viable targets. This would probably do a lot to demoralize the average person, but beyond that, I'm not sure it would be that effective - even if we completely lacked air defenses.
But ... the real worst case scenario is the U.N. placing sanctions on the U.S. and the Chinese cutting off all imports into this country. Though we will be better off without all their cheap crap, we now rely heavily on China to feed us. Most of the agricultural seed that is used in this country is actually grown in China. Yes, even if the company who produces it is based here, simply because most seed companies contract it out to China because it can be done so much cheaper over there. As I work in that industry, I can tell you that it's only we little guys who don't do it and most of the little guys still end up with Chinese seed because they lack the resources to breed their own and must buy it in. Most of the stuff they buy in comes from a California company, who I know for a fact (because I know their manager), contracts 95% of their production to China.
Though we have a much more powerful military than the Germans ever did during WW2, one thing the Germans had that we don't is an ability to be self-reliant, because American agriculture is in absolute shambles. Less than 1% of our population works in agriculture and the number of farmers, acres in production and overall productivity is heading into a fast decline. Areas once heavily devoted to food crops are now completely out of production and have been razed to make way for subdivisions or mini-malls, while much of the farmland that still remains is either lying fallow or has been switched over to grow crops such as turfgrass or oil seeds for bio-diesel. This is especially true in Oregon. Meanwhile, California (which produces more food than any other state), not only experiences the problems we have in Oregon, but to make matters worse, water rationing is laying waste to California's food production at an alarming rate and they expect to ration water even more in 2009. Right now, just about the only agricultural product some areas in California now produce is actually firewood. That's what's become of a lot of almond, citrus and olive groves down there.
If we had sanctions placed against us and the flow of foreign seed and food was instantly cut off, mass starvation would be a fact of life in this country. If people think that can't happen, keep in mind that nearly 8% of the U.S. population did starve to death during the Great Depression and the agricultural situation today is a lot more severe than it was in the 1930's. During the 30's, the only blow to American agriculture was the Dust Bowl which took out most of the wheat and corn in the Mid West and did not effect food production elsewhere.
That situation would improve pretty fast because there would be a real rush to rebuild American agriculture as quickly as possible with the implementation of home gardens, community gardens, switching existing production back to REAL food, reclaimating former farmland and socializing existing farms through imminent domain (don't ever think they wouldn't do it), etc. - but the fastest that you could make much headway is 4 to 8 months, which is the time required to grow most crops to maturity from seed (never mind all that other stuff).
As you can imagine, a **** of a lot of people could starve in that amount of time and there is nothing quite like famine that can destroy a culture quickly, as people tend to lose it when the bellies of their children are empty and will stop at nothing to fill them.
But if everyone was actually prepared and agriculture was rebuilt in this country, that sort of thing could be averted.
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Forget Alaska. They can have California now.
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ArctrusRising,
Well currently roughly 45% of that national debt is owed by foregin nations and foreign citizens and businesses, with Chinese and Japanese owing a majority of that stake (we owe chinese roughly one trillion dollars).
Here is what is going to happen when we say we will not pay the debt to foreigners. I doubt there will be wars, although I am sure chinese and japanese would want some kind of payment in another form (oil reserve in ANWAR? who knows)...
However, that is the least of the problem. Since the US currency is the reserve currency in the world, when we default on that suddenly the US dollar will be worthless and that will cause the entire world economy to go tailspin.
Now it suddenly means a chinese made T-shirt from walmart will cost $500 and your new BMW from Germany will cost $1,000,000.
Obviously the chiense will stop pegging the chinese currency to US dollar along with OPEC nations. Imports will be so expensive, that all products from forgen countries will stop coming in. Also, we won't be able to afford oil from middleeast either. You say, well good for us, we can get rid of chineses products!
Well think again, that makes the US product cheap to export and therfore GM/Ford will sell the cars overseas for 20K Euros while selling the same car in the US for 1 million US dollars. This means all our production will go over seas and nobody can buy ANYTHING in the country unless you held on to something else (such as lands, gold, or some other form or real money) rather than worthless US currency to pay for it. Think about it whye would GM/Ford sell cars in the US when they can export that and make a lot more money somewhere else?
By the way, price fixing does not work, that just means empty shelves everywhere. Again, why sell the GM/Ford cars here in the US for governemen mandated fixed price of $40K when you can sell it in Europe for 20K Euro (which in terms of exchange rate equal to one million US dollars?)
Currently the chinese people cannot afford their own goods becasue it is too expensive for them. We get to enjoy their decent products cheap. This will reverse. All other countries will enjoy better living standards while we suffer and we can't even buy our own product we make here.
Well, the net of it is that we will survive, but our standard of living will go down drastically, and you will be spending probably like 50% of your income on food. This won't be fun.
Here is the bottomline. When we default it will cause big chaos around the world. It is NOT the same as Russia going bankrupt. They are not a reserve currency. The dominance of US economy is due to the fact that our currency is reserve currency and it is "as good as gold". This means our central bank policy controls a lot of what happens in world economy.
We will no longer be the world economy power. The strongest economy power almost always has the best military power too. So we won't be #1 in military power either. Think about it...
Well currently roughly 45% of that national debt is owed by foregin nations and foreign citizens and businesses, with Chinese and Japanese owing a majority of that stake (we owe chinese roughly one trillion dollars).
Here is what is going to happen when we say we will not pay the debt to foreigners. I doubt there will be wars, although I am sure chinese and japanese would want some kind of payment in another form (oil reserve in ANWAR? who knows)...
However, that is the least of the problem. Since the US currency is the reserve currency in the world, when we default on that suddenly the US dollar will be worthless and that will cause the entire world economy to go tailspin.
Now it suddenly means a chinese made T-shirt from walmart will cost $500 and your new BMW from Germany will cost $1,000,000.
Obviously the chiense will stop pegging the chinese currency to US dollar along with OPEC nations. Imports will be so expensive, that all products from forgen countries will stop coming in. Also, we won't be able to afford oil from middleeast either. You say, well good for us, we can get rid of chineses products!
Well think again, that makes the US product cheap to export and therfore GM/Ford will sell the cars overseas for 20K Euros while selling the same car in the US for 1 million US dollars. This means all our production will go over seas and nobody can buy ANYTHING in the country unless you held on to something else (such as lands, gold, or some other form or real money) rather than worthless US currency to pay for it. Think about it whye would GM/Ford sell cars in the US when they can export that and make a lot more money somewhere else?
By the way, price fixing does not work, that just means empty shelves everywhere. Again, why sell the GM/Ford cars here in the US for governemen mandated fixed price of $40K when you can sell it in Europe for 20K Euro (which in terms of exchange rate equal to one million US dollars?)
Currently the chinese people cannot afford their own goods becasue it is too expensive for them. We get to enjoy their decent products cheap. This will reverse. All other countries will enjoy better living standards while we suffer and we can't even buy our own product we make here.
Well, the net of it is that we will survive, but our standard of living will go down drastically, and you will be spending probably like 50% of your income on food. This won't be fun.
Here is the bottomline. When we default it will cause big chaos around the world. It is NOT the same as Russia going bankrupt. They are not a reserve currency. The dominance of US economy is due to the fact that our currency is reserve currency and it is "as good as gold". This means our central bank policy controls a lot of what happens in world economy.
We will no longer be the world economy power. The strongest economy power almost always has the best military power too. So we won't be #1 in military power either. Think about it...
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BTW, if Chinese wants parts of Alaska or California or some if its resources, that would be a moral dillema for me. I love this country, but going to war agasint another country for not paying back something we owe is morally wrong. It is not much different than us invading some other country to take something away from them.
If I can't pay my mortgage becasue I have $500K in credit card debt, and I go bankrupt, someone will come and claim my house and reposes it. Will I bring my gun and kill those people? No, morally I am obliged to let them take it. I am the one who broke the contract law. It is theirs, and not mine.
Same thing. When we borrowed money from Chiense and Japanese, we gave them our word saying the piece of paper we gave them (T-bill and bonds and etc) is "backed by US govnerment in full faith". Well, we better fullfill that promise otherwise, we better pay up in some other forms such as resources or parts of our land, or give away our gold reserve.
If I can't pay my mortgage becasue I have $500K in credit card debt, and I go bankrupt, someone will come and claim my house and reposes it. Will I bring my gun and kill those people? No, morally I am obliged to let them take it. I am the one who broke the contract law. It is theirs, and not mine.
Same thing. When we borrowed money from Chiense and Japanese, we gave them our word saying the piece of paper we gave them (T-bill and bonds and etc) is "backed by US govnerment in full faith". Well, we better fullfill that promise otherwise, we better pay up in some other forms such as resources or parts of our land, or give away our gold reserve.
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Heh.... I would contend we ARE fighting a three front war already... the 3rd front being against our own government who seem intent on PURPOSELY collapsing our economy and system of government with the onerous debt they continue to accrue with reckless abandon and glee....
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Since gold is down a fair amount let's see how it affects the dollar .... JMO
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If you have any savings, turn them into silver here www.apmex.com
The value of the dollar is such that the federal reserve loans to its memeber banks for just about 0 percent interest, it seems we ourselves put little value in the buck.
Looking at national debt in the worst possible way leads to adding in unfunded mandates and playing all manner of tricks, as it stands now each citizens share of the national debt is about $34,000 and that is bad enough with doing voodoo economics to make it worse.
The Chinese hold about a trillion of our debt and that isn't all that much, we gave wall street twice that amount to save them from their own boundless, insane, greed over the last year and almost all of that is still on the books as debt. This trillion is just about what we have spent on the war in Iraq so far, so lets keep it in perspective.
We need to get used to the USA not being number 1, like most great empires in decline, we can no longer solve problems. Practical solutions are tossed aside in favor of ones that keep the entrenched interests in control. They buy congress, and they own the media and brainwash us to support their interests against our own. Indeed what has kept us as free as we are, is that there is no single conspiracy of the money, as they work against each other top some extent.
Looking at national debt in the worst possible way leads to adding in unfunded mandates and playing all manner of tricks, as it stands now each citizens share of the national debt is about $34,000 and that is bad enough with doing voodoo economics to make it worse.
The Chinese hold about a trillion of our debt and that isn't all that much, we gave wall street twice that amount to save them from their own boundless, insane, greed over the last year and almost all of that is still on the books as debt. This trillion is just about what we have spent on the war in Iraq so far, so lets keep it in perspective.
We need to get used to the USA not being number 1, like most great empires in decline, we can no longer solve problems. Practical solutions are tossed aside in favor of ones that keep the entrenched interests in control. They buy congress, and they own the media and brainwash us to support their interests against our own. Indeed what has kept us as free as we are, is that there is no single conspiracy of the money, as they work against each other top some extent.
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The real question is when the U.S. currency completely implodes will it take down the rest of the world? Much the same as the military fall of Rome took out Europe and started the Dark Ages, or will the power vacuum cause every Tom Dick and Hairy to start their armys marching? Then again China is pretty on top of things they've been selling off a lot of dollar back security so it might be a smooth transition.
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I love how we Americans are now so "numb" to our county's plight, and refer to STAGGERING amounts of money with more zeros behind it than God ever intended money to have in the first place as "not that much, compared to"....
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