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Yield Curve indicates a recession, regardless of any politician. Change the scale to Max.
This is a fancy term for the difference between returns on 10-year Treasuries and two-year Treasuries. The idea here is that long-term investments are generally riskier than short-term investments, so the difference is usually positive. But when the difference goes negative (marked by the thick black line in the chart below) and two-year Treasuries are paying higher returns than 10-year Treasuries, then short-term investments have grown riskier than long-term ones. That's the dreaded "inverted yield curve," and it's reliably predicted the last five recessions.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
This is a fancy term for the difference between returns on 10-year Treasuries and two-year Treasuries. The idea here is that long-term investments are generally riskier than short-term investments, so the difference is usually positive. But when the difference goes negative (marked by the thick black line in the chart below) and two-year Treasuries are paying higher returns than 10-year Treasuries, then short-term investments have grown riskier than long-term ones. That's the dreaded "inverted yield curve," and it's reliably predicted the last five recessions.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y