Surviving the crash

[sobo]

About 3 years ago, a coupla months after the beginning of the plannedemic, I went into my credit union and withdrew $5,000. There were no questions asked, other than "How's your day going?" The teller asked me what denominations I wanted, I told her, she counted it out, I recounted it, thanked her, left, went straight home and put it in my gun safe. The whole thing could not have been easier. I wonder what that transaction would go like today...

 

[The Heretic]

I went home with the waitress, the way I always do
How was I to know, she was with the Russians, too?
I was gambling in Havana, I took a little risk
Send lawyers, guns and money, dad, get me out of this, ha
I'm the innocent bystander
Somehow I got stuck between the rock and a hard place
And I'm down on my luck, yes I'm down on my luck
Well, I'm down on my luck
And I'm hiding in Honduras
I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The bubblegum has hit the fan
Alright, send lawyers, guns, and money
Huh, yeah
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Uh
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Hey
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Oo, yeah
Yeah
Yeah

 

[sobo]

I went home with the waitress, the way I always do
How was I to know, she was with the Russians, too?
I was gambling in Havana, I took a little risk
Send lawyers, guns and money, dad, get me out of this, ha
I'm the innocent bystander
Somehow I got stuck between the rock and a hard place
And I'm down on my luck, yes I'm down on my luck
Well, I'm down on my luck
And I'm hiding in Honduras
I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The bubblegum has hit the fan
Alright, send lawyers, guns, and money
Huh, yeah
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Uh
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Hey
Send lawyers, guns, and money
Oo, yeah
Yeah
Yeah

Just bought that album on iTunes... again...

The vinyl one was way too hard to play in the car.

 

[ATCclears]

from the WSJ Editorial Board:

This weekend's rescue is a warning that two weeks into the current banking panic the post-2008 rule book already has failed. Taxpayers are on notice that the solution to any crisis will be to amplify too-big-to-fail rather than reducing it—as it was the last time around. Hang onto your wallets.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/and-no...8e4844u05s1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[P7M13]

About 3 years ago, a coupla months after the beginning of the plannedemic, I went into my credit union and withdrew $5,000. There were no questions asked, other than "How's your day going?" The teller asked me what denominations I wanted, I told her, she counted it out, I recounted it, thanked her, left, went straight home and put it in my gun safe. The whole thing could not have been easier. I wonder what that transaction would go like today...

Took $2K out last Thursday. Tellers did not bat an eyelash - seemed business as usual.

 

[ATCclears]

Coordinated central bank action to enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[Longwalkhome]

There was never any doubt the banks would crash along with everything else when or energy prices went up. Said it in the beginning.

How the banks manage all the derivatives, looks like they are going to shuffle them like musical chairs until the music stops.

Add to all the financial failing is we lost the war in Ukraine.

Hang on to your hats and stand by for high winds and heavy seas this week.

 

[arakboss]

Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?

"We analyze U.S. banks' asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates with implications for financial stability. The U.S. banking system's market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity. Marked-to-market bank assets have declined by an average of 10% across all the banks, with the bottom 5th percentile experiencing a decline of 20%. We illustrate that uninsured leverage (i.e., Uninsured Debt/Assets) is the key to understanding whether these losses would lead to some banks in the U.S. becoming insolvent-- unlike insured depositors, uninsured depositors stand to lose a part of their deposits if the bank fails, potentially giving them incentives to run. A case study of the recently failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is illustrative. 10 percent of banks have larger unrecognized losses than those at SVB. Nor was SVB the worst capitalized bank, with 10 percent of banks having lower capitalization than SVB. On the other hand, SVB had a disproportional share of uninsured funding: only 1 percent of banks had higher uninsured leverage. Combined, losses and uninsured leverage provide incentives for an SVB uninsured depositor run. We compute similar incentives for the sample of all U.S. banks. Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk. If uninsured deposit withdrawals cause even small fire sales, substantially more banks are at risk. Overall, these calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values very significantly increased the fragility of the US banking system to uninsured depositor runs."


Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676

 

[arakboss]

There was never any doubt the banks would crash along with everything else when or energy prices went up. Said it in the beginning.

How the banks manage all the derivatives, looks like they are going to shuffle them like musical chairs until the music stops.

Add to all the financial failing is we lost the war in Ukraine.

Hang on to your hats and stand by for high winds and heavy seas this week.

I am thinking energy prices are the least of the banks concerns right now.

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[Alexx1401]

I might try to withdraw more tomorrow. Say $3k or so. Before the start of the nationalization of the banks, it was difficult to say the least. What are you using the money for??? Why cash???? ....... + 5 other ???s in a row. Rather than be rude and tell the teller to F-off, it is always better to lie and play along..........

View attachment 1387012

This is one of those times where there is probably more to the "why". Most bankers are instructed to ask things like that during a large cash withdrawal. Reason being they are looking for signs of fraud and abuse.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I am thinking energy prices are the least of the banks concerns right now.

Energy prices drove inflation through the roof. Fed fights inflation with rising interest rates and banks fail from too high of interest rates.

So now ...

Coordinated central bank action to enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[Mono1]

Reason being they are looking for signs of fraud and abuse.

Dot.Gov's Lackeys.

 

[Alexx1401]

I am thinking energy prices are the least of the banks concerns right now.

The sudden jump in rates was known to be a problem. The Fed was making money almost free for WAY too long. Now that the US elected someone who just started throwing cash with a fire hose and everyone with any brains could see what was going to happen. Shut down the entire economy, then open a floodgate of money, then inflation comes roaring in. Panic and start to jack up rates to try to undo what you just did? This is what happens. It was VERY easy to see it coming.

 

[Longwalkhome]

US is going to take a decade to recover from the crash because we sent our manufacturing base to China. Even if Energy goes down we won't be able to run a decent economy.

 

[Alexx1401]

Dot.Gov's Lackeys.

Try doing some simple searching. People get taken by scams all the time. There is a reason so many joke about the Nigerian Prince needing money. Some still fall for that and a whole list of other scams. Even now when people have so much info at their fingers they still fall. So when people walk into a bank and start asking for cash they will try to stop them from themselves if they can. Reason being when the give that cash to some scam artist the first place they then come wanting to be made "whole" is the Gov. People get a little too tinfoil hat over this. The Gov would LOVE a digital currency but, its not going to happen in secret. They will do it the same way they did the great hoax. Fear. They will scare a lot of people who will line up to sign up for this new great thing.

 

[arakboss]

US is going to take a decade to recover from the crash because we sent our manufacturing base to China. Even if Energy goes down we won't be able to run a decent economy.

My suggestion is to hunker down, trim all the fat from budget expenses and plan to live more frugally in the future. Maybe people will start worrying more about environmental concerns and less about GDP.

 

[Alexx1401]

US is going to take a decade to recover from the crash because we sent our manufacturing base to China. Even if Energy goes down we won't be able to run a decent economy.

YEP! Just like shutting off the entire place takes a long time to start it back, manufacturing is the same. If they start trying to bring it back onshore it will take a good while mainly due to regulations. There is a string of Gov agencies that will get in the way every step of the way.

 

[The Heretic]

Took $2K out last Thursday. Tellers did not bat an eyelash - seemed business as usual.

I blew thru $900 of secret stash cash today, which was almost all of my on hand cash.

I guess I need to get at least $500 cash tomorrow.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

People get taken by scams all the time.

Not much in my life I'm not proud of, but during the recession I did work for Comcast for a while in customer support and at least twice a week I would get a call from someone (usually and older person) saying that they had just gotten off the phone with "Microsoft Support" and they had been oh so helpful doing a screen share and installing software to get the viruses off their computer, but now for some odd reason they could not go to AOL or Yahoo or whatever, and could we help them with that

And it wasn't just me, we all got those calls, so figure hundreds of people a month letting some rando that just called them up one day direct them to a website where they could download and install a screen sharing program

 

[Alexx1401]

Not much in my life I'm not proud of, but during the recession I did work for Comcast for a while in customer support and at least twice a week I would get a call from someone (usually and older person) saying that they had just gotten off the phone with "Microsoft Support" and they had been oh so helpful doing a screen share and installing software to get the viruses off their computer, but now for some odd reason they could not go to AOL or Yahoo or whatever, and could we help them with that

And it wasn't just me, we all got those calls, so figure hundreds of people a month letting some rando that just called them up one day direct them to a website where they could download and install a screen sharing program

YEP! I get a text at least once a week warning me my Amazon, Netflix, ect, account has been locked. I of course delete them but, there is a reason these mass things are sent out. Someone falls for it. Not long ago one family member who does remote work at home got taken. She went to buy a bunch of gift cards to pay "ransom". The store asked her if she was sure she wanted to do this and she admitted what she was doing and they tried to talk her out of it. She did it anyway and of course was taken. Someone will fall for this crap so they keep trying.