Surviving the crash

[Longwalkhome]

At least you survived this long, a lot of folks didnt.

 

[sobo]

There are a LOT of people out there who are in dire circumstances and barely surviving (or not even that) so I am not going to complain much.

Some wise words to live by...

 

[DunRanull]

The best way to survive the crash is with a 12 ga. shotgun. Bunnies, birds, deer, big foots, you name it. A good 12 ga and a bowie or khukri... Just sayin...

 

[American123]

Why not pay off your mortgage with retirement funds? You would have more monthly cash flow, not have to pay the rest of the interest and not to mention you wouldn’t be anyone’s slave.

Probably similar reason I financed my car at 1.99% for 7 years. Money in the bank is making 3.5% and inflation works both ways. True, my money in 7 years will be worth less than today, but that also means that my fixed payments will be worth less also and in the mean time I benefit more from having cash available than by paying for the car up front. The finance charge is about $50 a month and dropping, while on that same money I’m making about $75 a month and can dip into if necessary for emergencies. It just didn’t make sense to pay for it up front.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Picking up a Predator 3500 Generator and accessories this week. Just figure I'd rather have it at the ready in the box than have soon to be severely depreciated dollars. Recently bought a 1500va solar generator and some other things.

BTW, the FDIC is severely underfunded and will save no one in a crisis. A 'bank holiday' has been openly warned about over and over again. They love giving notice as when it happens they can say 'see, we told you.' Kind of like Dr Falsey in 2017.

Fully expect a restructuring to a gov crypto in the not too distance future. The minions revolt only when they are bent over selectively. When 'everyone's' wealth is effected simultaneously, the sheep will say baaah. We stopped M.E. nations from discarding the Petro Dollar scam, but the BRICS nations are REALLY going for it.

That is why NATO is working so hard to start mass wars to delay that happening. We have two assets - a printing press/$$ and a bloated military. The only thing that will sustain the West is war, and we are indeed on the war path on every front.

A buddy of mine many years ago was on a rant about our wars around 2003. I told him it was all about them wanting to leave the dollar, everything else was smoke and mirrors. Our military stopped it. I then told him if it were not for that we would be living in a Zimbabwe situation here - pick out a nice cardboard box and find yourself an overpass. 20 years later, here we go again.

 

[ATCclears]

I concur with @Burt Gummer about the growing use of the PetroYuan and hence the growing risk to the PetroDollar.

There has been a boiling the frog happening for the last 30 years, and it may be accelerating. Check out the charts from this article and the fundamental change from 1990 to 2020.

I expect we'll see a major war with China over it. When the world doesn't need the PetroDollar it will become challenging for the USA to find buyers for it's debt. The people will scream, the politicians will be out of options, and *poof* we'll be into it.

A change of the informal, reserve currency has happened before and it will happen again. See second link.


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/biggest-trade-partner-of-each-country-1960-2020/

World Reserve Currencies Since 1450

Former world reserve currencies lost their status due to money printing and an overload of debt. The US dollar is on a similar path.

www.midasgoldgroup.com

 

[Longwalkhome]

Just a little info, I have it from a good resource that theft is growing tremendously. Insurance claims are rising quickly.

 

[Provincial]

I talked to a fellow today that frequents construction equipment auctions. I asked him if demand for such equipment is falling off, because that is one sign of a pending decline in the economy. He said that prices continue to be sky-high. This is a sign that the economy will not drop off in the short term.

These prices will drop off when new construction projects dry up. Contractors who have access to new equipment buy used to supplement their capacity, or if there is a shortage of new or rental equipment. Those without this access (financially) buy used because it is all that they can afford.

From my experience, this indicator is very reliable, but only gives a few months of warning.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I talked to a fellow today that frequents construction equipment auctions. I asked him if demand for such equipment is falling off, because that is one sign of a pending decline in the economy. He said that prices continue to be sky-high. This is a sign that the economy will not drop off in the short term.

These prices will drop off when new construction projects dry up. Contractors who have access to new equipment buy used to supplement their capacity, or if there is a shortage of new or rental equipment. Those without this access (financially) buy used because it is all that they can afford.

From my experience, this indicator is very reliable, but only gives a few months of warning.

I worked construction all my life and have been retired for years. It changed greatly the last five years I worked due to tax structure. It became too expensive tax wise to keep old equipment so companies sold it and a lot of the old equipment went overseas. There is a shortage of good old equipment.

The $17 billion dollar construction company I worked for rented what equipment it didn't have. If the equipment isn't used regularly it's sold off because it's far cheaper to rent newer equipment tax wise..

 

[Longwalkhome]

Carus warns of a 3-month outage for permanganate chemicals - Warehouse fire hobbles the sole US producer of water treatment chemicals

freerepublic.com

Do you drink city water?

 

[Provincial]

I worked construction all my life and have been retired for years. It changed greatly the last five years I worked due to tax structure. It became too expensive tax wise to keep old equipment so companies sold it and a lot of the old equipment went overseas. There is a shortage of good old equipment.

The $17 billion dollar construction company I worked for rented what equipment it didn't have. If the equipment isn't used regularly it's sold off because it's far cheaper to rent newer equipment tax wise..

Bean counters decide policies at big companies. Often, these policies don't make sense to people who make good decisions in their personal finances. For instance, it makes sense to keep a car that is paid off as long as it isn't racking up large repair costs.

The bean counter has a depreciation schedule, let's say, of 7 years straight line. After 7 years the book value of the machine is zero. If you have 7 of these machines, purchased one each year, you have a depreciation chain that writes off the cost of purchasing a new machine, so it is essentially free.

If you only need 7 machines, you will be building up a pile of unused machines, so the bean counter sells the excess off. You or I would keep at least one (it's paid for, after all) to use if one of the 7 breaks down. Bean counters hate having stuff sitting around, so they sell the 8th one, but the company must show the difference between $0.00 and the sales price (after expenses) as profit. This is why many companies scrap useable equipment - it cost them less after taxes are calculated in.

Renting/leasing is fully deductible, so the tax structure encourages that. It is especially desirable for excess or short-term needs. This only works if the bid/hourly rate is high enough to pass the expense onto the customer. This is why renting/leasing is a symptom of a hot or overheated economy.

Rental machines show up in the used market when the rental companies replace them with new machines. Unlike the company-owned machines, the rental agencies have to rent out new (or pretty new) machines in order to make them practical for the customer. I don't know the facts on this, but suspect that there are favorable tax strategies that fit this, probably a form of accelerated depreciation.

So, most of the auction inventory is ex-rentals and depreciated-out corporation machines that were not traded in. Some are excess inventory of trade-ins from dealers.

In a strong economy, demand exceeds supply, and prices are high. When the economy weakens, demand at the auctions falls off quickly, resulting in rapid decrease in auction prices. This is because construction is a "leading indicator" in that investors stop building when they see it will be hard to fill rental buildings or sell houses. Without work on the books, contractors stop buying, and often start selling equipment. This accelerates the drop in prices.

All this happens before the major layoffs and other problems of the recession start to become obvious.

Sorry for the long-winded lecture. The whole process is complicated, which is why most people are not aware of it.

 

[Longwalkhome]

What the tax structure did was make it hard for a new small business to start up. Without used equipment small businesses could not get their foot in the door so big billion dollar companies took over the majority of construction.

Survival is seeing what the future brings and planning for what you believe is coming. After a lifetime in construction I look back on the changes and believe the entire system has crashed. That's just me and my life, ymmv.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Why it's important that the company that provides water treatment chemicals got burnt down.

salem oregon bad water warnings - Bing

Intelligent search from Bing makes it easier to quickly find what you’re looking for and rewards you.

www.bing.com

Might want to stock up on bottles of drinking water.

 

[The Heretic]

Why it's important that the company that provides water treatment chemicals got burnt down.

salem oregon bad water warnings - Bing

Intelligent search from Bing makes it easier to quickly find what you’re looking for and rewards you.

www.bing.com

Might want to stock up on bottles of drinking water.

My water comes from a tested private (mine) well.

 

[Longwalkhome]

My water comes from a tested private (mine) well.

If the cities can't get chemicals to treat their water then folks will be looking for a bottled water source. I believe well owners will be selling drinking water to the city folks.

We get another bad bloom of alge without chemicals to treat it and water systems will be undrinkable.

 

[The Heretic]

Households Burn Through What’s Left of Their Pandemic Savings

The combination of high prices and the end of pandemic relief programs is eating into household savings.

www.wsj.com

And people got no wiser about their spending/saving habits:

Ms. Bailey started 2020 with about $1,000 in savings and grew that to $6,000 over the following year.

Her two savings accounts now hold about $50 and $100, respectively.

Ms. Bailey scaled back her household's spending last year. They dine out less often, and she and her husband reduced the frequency of their wine-and-cheese date nights at home because the materials are expensive.

The family has been planning a trip to New York this summer, and because of airfare costs, they recently decided that they will do a nine-hour drive instead.

Despite having no savings, they still dine out and are still taking vacations.

 

[The Heretic]

The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out

The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing, while inflation remains elevated.

www.wsj.com

 

[Longwalkhome]

Media keeps the propaganda going that the economy is just fine so of course folks keep spending.

 

[Jay Walk]

Will either survive or I won't.

I won't be waiting in a gas line or going to a grocery store to see the empty shelves and desperation on people's faces though.

 

[ATCclears]

A good analysis. "The market has gotten the Fed's message higher rates for a longer period of time."

Expect the Federal interest rate to stay high through at least December, 2023.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-many-rate-hikes-does-the-market-now-expect-of-the-fed