Suicide rate stats vs gun ownership levels.

[BSG 75]

Research by the Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence underlines that the tragedy of gun violence and suicides is not spread randomly across the country, but is concentrated precisely in those places where gun ownership is most prevalent and gun laws at their loosest. When the fund analysed the new CDC statistics, it discovered the highest rates of gun suicides occurred in three states which also have the greatest gun ownership – Montana (19.4 gun suicides per 100,000), Wyoming (16.6) and Alaska (16.0)
Source: Gun deaths in US rise to highest level in 20 years, data shows

This is an example of a spurious correlation or spurious relationship. A spurious correlation or relationship is one in which two things that are not correlated with or related to each other appear to be related to or correlated with each other because both are related to a third lurking or hidden variable.

An example would be someone observing that the months when ice cream sales are the highest are also months when drowning deaths are the highest and making the fallacious statement that eating more ice cream increases drowning deaths. The lurking or hidden variable is weather temperature. During the hot summer months more ice cream is sold. The hot summer months are also when more people go swimming and are at risk of drowning. Ice cream sales and drownings both go up at the same time of year, but one doesn't cause the other.

Coming to such a incorrect conclusion is an example of the logical fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "with this, therefore because of this", also known as correlation does not imply causation.








In the same way "loose gun laws" and higher rates of gun ownership doesn't necessarily cause higher gun suicides.

In the case of "loose gun laws", higher rates of gun ownership, and gun suicides, the lurking or hidden variable is population density.

There is a well known relationship between lower population density - rural areas with fewer people per square mile - and increased suicide rates by all methods, not just firearms.
The counterintuitive case of suicide and population density — Per Square Mile
The Unsettling Link Between Sprawl and Suicide - CityLab
Is there a relationship between suicide rate and population density

It is thought to be related to more social isolation and fewer readily accessible mental health resources in sparsely populated rural areas.

Alaska, Wyoming, and Montana in order are the three states with the lowest population density. That is the real cause of higher suicide rates. Because they are rural Republican states they will also have less gun control and higher rates of gun ownership, but that doesn't cause the higher rates of suicide with firearms.

In order to come to a correct conclusion the study would have to use multivariate analysis to correct for the effect of the lurking variable of population density. If they did that the correlation would disappear.

I have found it to be generally the case that gun control advocates use statistics and studies in a very dishonest and misleading way to "prove" that guns are bad and gun control works.

 

[bolus]

That is the kind of stats I am looking for. Is that current do you have link to source?

Im the source of the graph.

I used wikipedia data and made my own graph. Wikipedia data of suicide rates is a few years behind and from WHO
List of countries by suicide rate - Wikipedia

And then the gun ownership is form Small arms survey from 2017
Estimated number of civilian guns per capita by country - Wikipedia

It's just a way to say just because one this happens it is not necessarily the cause of another thing.

 

[edzz]

Without a properly designed study using scientific methods these published reports are useless.

I would propose creating a study using a control group and examine the outcome over a significant period of time.

I would suggest that using politicians would be the perfect group for this study as they are all stable and responsible persons. By design this study would upon entering political life issue said politicians a single shot, single use firearm to see if access to said firearms increased the suicide rate in said control group.

A side study would also examine how political affiliation (/derangement) may influence the results.

 

[CLT65]

They also don't want to address the cause of problems. Sky-high violence and crime in the inner city? Could it be a cultural issue? Nope, take away the guns; that'll fix it. It's especially sad for those stuck in that kind of culture that can't get the kind of help that would actually make a difference, just a band-aid of gun control instead.

Here's an example of the kind of irrational thinking we have to deal with. I was having a conversation with a coworker once about gun control. He has guns and likes to shoot, but is otherwise quite liberal. He opined that gun control would never work, because there's too many guns out there and all it would do is take them away from the law-abiding (I agree).

Then he goes on to say that he wished guns had never been invented, or would all just magically disappear at once. Just think how much more peaceful and safe the world would be with no guns at all, for anyone! What really got me is that he actually a very intelligent guy.

I thought for a minute and said wow, that would be neat. If only we could try that somehow. If only there was a time in history before guns existed, where we could peer into the historical record to see if it was indeed a peaceful utopia, where people didn't slaughter each other with swords, and arrows, and knives, and rocks, and fists... Oh yeah! There is; it's called most of human history! We do have records, and it was just as violent if not much more so! Perhaps the problem is human nature, more than the tool. Perhaps violence and murder is a matter of will, not weapon.

He got a weird "does not compute" look on his face, and abruptly changed the subject.

 

[Joe13]

I realize stats can be interpreted every which way from Sunday and be all over the place in the accuracy dept. But for the sake of this discussion let's assume these stats are close to accurate. The author makes the case that states with the highest gun ownership have the highest suicide by gun rates. I would guess the antis who are trying to reduce suicides by guns would assume that lowering the amount of gun ownership would lower amount of suicides by gun. Seems plausible enough to me, but if a person only owns 3 guns vs 100 guns is that person really going to be less likely to commit suicide by gun. I wouldn't think so. Is there any stats that show a person with lots of guns is less likely to commit suicide by gun then a person with only a few guns?


Research by the Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence underlines that the tragedy of gun violence and suicides is not spread randomly across the country, but is concentrated precisely in those places where gun ownership is most prevalent and gun laws at their loosest. When the fund analysed the new CDC statistics, it discovered the highest rates of gun suicides occurred in three states which also have the greatest gun ownership – Montana (19.4 gun suicides per 100,000), Wyoming (16.6) and Alaska (16.0)
Source: Gun deaths in US rise to highest level in 20 years, data shows

Seems like those 3 states also have the fewest population per area as well - lotta lonely people maybe? Or least amount of mental health resources?

 

[arakboss]

They also don't want to address the cause of problems. Sky-high violence and crime in the inner city? Could it be a cultural issue? Nope, take away the guns; that'll fix it. It's especially sad for those stuck in that kind of culture that can't get the kind of help that would actually make a difference, just a band-aid of gun control instead.

Here's an example of the kind of irrational thinking we have to deal with. I was having a conversation with a coworker once about gun control. He has guns and likes to shoot, but is otherwise quite liberal. He opined that gun control would never work, because there's too many guns out there and all it would do is take them away from the law-abiding (I agree).

Then he goes on to say that he wished guns had never been invented, or would all just magically disappear at once. Just think how much more peaceful and safe the world would be with no guns at all, for anyone! What really got me is that he actually a very intelligent guy.

I thought for a minute and said wow, that would be neat. If only we could try that somehow. If only there was a time in history before guns existed, where we could peer into the historical record to see if it was indeed a peaceful utopia, where people didn't slaughter each other with swords, and arrows, and knives, and rocks, and fists... Oh yeah! There is; it's called most of human history! We do have records, and it was just as violent if not much more so! Perhaps the problem is human nature, more than the tool. Perhaps violence and murder is a matter of will, not weapon.

He got a weird "does not compute" look on his face, and abruptly changed the subject.

I have heard a well armed society is a polite society or something like that.

 

[Goosebrown]

"Having a gun doesn't make or correlate with a greater liklihood of suicide."

It does correlate with gun suicides though and gun suicides are generally successful.

 

[arakboss]

"Having a gun doesn't make or correlate with a greater liklihood of suicide."

It does correlate with gun suicides though and gun suicides are generally successful.

That is another point the antis make that gun suicides are much more successful.

 

[uberguy]

So, even using anti gun biased numbers, during that time period firearms were 2.85 times more likely to be used defensively than they were to be used to commit homicides and suicides. If limited to only defense against violent crime, they are 1.76 times more likely to be used in defense than to be used to commit homicides and suicides.

So, it appears that even using their own anti gun biased "statistics", their arguments that more harm than good comes from owning a firearm are patently false.

CDC Data:
Gun-related deaths by age and sex 1999-2016


Violence Policy Center Data:
http://vpc.org/studies/justifiable17.pdf

While I understand your point and see it as valid, I see no reason whatsoever to help validate VPC as a data source. To wit, the opening paragraph of their PDF (that you linked) refers to justifiable homicides vs. murders, when (other credible) data shows that defensive use of firearms infrequently results in a death.

e.g. Armed citizens shoot to stop an attack, whereas a homicidal criminal is more likely to kill and not care.

 

[bolus]

That is another point the antis make that gun suicides are much more successful.

As I argued with legislators when I was in Oregon. They dont give a crap that someone is suicidal in the first place. They seem to think as long as they dont have a gun who gives a crap about them. I gave them many examples of inadequate mental health treatment in oregon, some with very easy fixes and they ignored me.

The response to them is "I understand your concern about guns being used in suicides, but what are we doing about the person feeling suicidal in the first place? Isnt it better to improve the way we assess and treat the underlying depression rather than just argue about guns?"

that's what I emailed to Boquist when he suggested that everyone who opposed his "no guns for vets" law or what ever it was (red flag law I think) be tracked by the NSA. No response of course.

Even if all the guns magically disappear overnight people will still be so horribly depressed they want to end their lives. And as my chart shows, countries without guns still have suicides.

 

[MannyGlocks]

GB,

Some can't even get do that without simply wounding themselves by blowing out an eye an some bits of this and that and still live or turn themselves into wheelchair veggies.

Smoking yourself with a gun is by no means a surefire way to kick off....

G.B. are you for or against guns?

Not being unkind, just curious as what you post often (to me) sounds like guns aren't your thing...

 

[Member 52301]

Does the manner really matter? Japan has virtually zero civilian firearm ownership and a suicide rate 60% higher than ours.

Japan's suicide rate exceeds world average: WHO report | The Japan Times

I was going to say the same thing.

Cate

 

[Goosebrown]

GB,

Some can't even get do that without simply wounding themselves by blowing out an eye an some bits of this and that and still live or turn themselves into wheelchair veggies.

Smoking yourself with a gun is by no means a surefire way to kick off....

G.B. are you for or against guns?

Not being unkind, just curious as what you post often (to me) sounds like guns aren't your thing...

Well I'm not a mall ninja.

Perhaps you haven't heard of google. Guns are the single most reliable way to kill yourself. They are the statistically the most common method of suicide among men.

Asking if I'm anti-gun is insulting. Welcome to the ignore list where all the anti gun nuts go.

 

[DB is Here]

Gentlemen, we appreciate the passion everyone brings to this forum and at times it boils over a bit. That said lets honor the forum rules and be excellent to each other. This has been a good thread and it'd be a shame to shut it down. Remember, we're all pulling on the same rope here.

NWFA Staff

 

[arakboss]

Well I'm not a mall ninja.

Perhaps you haven't heard of google. Guns are the single most reliable way to kill yourself. They are the statistically the most common method of suicide among men.

Asking if I'm anti-gun is insulting. Welcome to the ignore list where all the anti gun nuts go.

I think you are right on these points.

 

[PNWguy]

Remember, we're all pulling on the same rope here.

Ironic phrase in a thread about suicide...

I'm no stranger to suicide by gun as my little brother used the gun I bought him for Christmas to end his life in 2001 at the age of 20.

Did I swear off guns as evil? Did I try to blame anyone or anything else for the tragedy other than a tortured young man? No.

I've seen a few threads in various gun forums regarding the subject of suicide and recall some excellent points made. One of them being that while older white males have the highest rate of suicide, females have an exponentially higher rate of attempted suicide.

My theory, as an older white male, as to why we are offing ourselves at an alarming rate, is that we have been vilified and attacked by the mainstream media as the ultimate evil and downfall of Amerika.

I remember about 10-15 years ago, when I had a startling revelation.

I had grown up in Moscow, ID and was the son of a cop, went to church, played football, and worked since I was 13. I grew up in church, loved musclecars, country music, and the outdoors. I joined the military. Twice. Served my country honorably, married a good Christian woman, raised two responsible kids, didn't cheat on my wife, and pretty much thought I was the epitome of a positive role model for society.

Then I had the revelation.

I was no longer the Good Guy in the eyes of the media and much of America.

My entire upbringing, childhood, and value system was now considered racist, oppressive, ignorant, xenophobic, and misogynistic.

It was quite disturbing to see society take a 180 degree turn in such a relatively short period of time. It was depressing and soul-crushing.

My theory is that there are a lot of people like me out there who are feeling the effects of being targeted by the media and just aren't dealing with it very well.

 

[arakboss]

Ironic phrase in a thread about suicide...

I'm no stranger to suicide by gun as my little brother used the gun I bought him for Christmas to end his life in 2001 at the age of 20.

Did I swear off guns as evil? Did I try to blame anyone or anything else for the tragedy other than a tortured young man? No.

I've seen a few threads in various gun forums regarding the subject of suicide and recall some excellent points made. One of them being that while older white males have the highest rate of suicide, females have an exponentially higher rate of attempted suicide.

My theory, as an older white male, as to why we are offing ourselves at an alarming rate, is that we have been vilified and attacked by the mainstream media as the ultimate evil and downfall of Amerika.

I remember about 10-15 years ago, when I had a startling revelation.

I had grown up in Moscow, ID and was the son of a cop, went to church, played football, and worked since I was 13. I grew up in church, loved musclecars, country music, and the outdoors. I joined the military. Twice. Served my country honorably, married a good Christian woman, raised two responsible kids, didn't cheat on my wife, and pretty much thought I was the epitome of a positive role model for society.

Then I had the revelation.

I was no longer the Good Guy in the eyes of the media and much of America.

My entire upbringing, childhood, and value system was now considered racist, oppressive, ignorant, xenophobic, and misogynistic.

It was quite disturbing to see society take a 180 degree turn in such a relatively short period of time. It was depressing and soul-crushing.

My theory is that there are a lot of people like me out there who are feeling the effects of being targeted by the media and just aren't dealing with it very well.

Sorry to hear about your brother.

From one white to another, I still think you're a good guy. Keep your chin up.

 

[Member 52301]

PNW guy,

You have my sincere condolences on your brother's death.

Sincerely,

Cate

 

[Flymph]

If you don't even have the right to decide when you die, what rights do you even have.

Another false dillema... maybe we should ban rope and cords, as they seem to be one of the leading causes.

PS; anybody else draw the conclusion that the three states they listed also have some of the harshest winters in the US?

 

[arakboss]

If you don't even have the right to decide when you die, what rights do you even have.

Another false dillema... maybe we should ban rope and cords, as they seem to be one of the leading causes.

PS; anybody else draw the conclusion that the three states they listed also have some of the harshest winters in the US?

@Mikej was first to point that out as did others. Someone also mentioned that residents living in rural areas are more likely to commit suicide then those living in population centers.