spend 30 seconds to help support Washington 2A sanctuaries

[zcap]

Hello,

After conversing with some Washington state legislators, I can confirm that they are largely ignorant of gun ownership statistics and demographics. While they can choose to ignore the hundreds of protesters at the capital (thanks to everyone who showed up yesterday despite the weather), their ignorance of the reach of these newly proposed policies (magazine capacity and semi-auto rifle restrictions) make them much more vulnerable than they currently realize.

We can safely assume by precedents set by gun owners in states like in New Jersey that nearly no one is going to register their banned firearms or dispose of their standard capacity magazines. Under that assumption and based upon my research of sales, ownership rates and state demographics, the combination of restricting magazines and banning semi-autos will technically make over 85% of gun owning Washington state residents into felons (85% is very conservative estimate, I believe this number to likely be over 95% but am still sourcing survey and sales data for more rural areas of the state). A conservative estimate is that over 20% of Democrat leaning households, 38% of Independent and 46% of Republican households will have at least one member of the household classified as a felon. (edit: updated with per household rather than per capita data) Compounded with the social network effects, most Washington state residents will have someone in their immediate social circle classified as a felon by these new bills. These demographic dynamics make this legislation a powder keg waiting to blow up given the right messaging.

Due to my profession, I have access to reams of national and state level demographic datasets to help with targeted messaging, but one thing I don't have is good county level data. If you live in Washington state, please spend 30 seconds to answer the anonymous two question survey below. This data will be combined with other datasets to:

1. Demonstrate that the combination of these bills (specifically semi-auto rifle and magazine restrictions) will ban most firearms owned by Washington state residents.
2. Publish research that county sheriffs can refer to support their decision to create 2A sanctuaries.
3. Publicize how voters are actually much more pro-2A than the media reports or politicians believe.

While the details of the bills are likely to change in minor ways, for the purposes of this survey, assume that all semi-auto rifles will be banned, all AR style pistols, and all pistols that came standard with greater than 10 round magazines. For example, suppose I own 10 firearms:

• 4 AR rifles
• 1 AR pistol
• 4 pistols with factory standard 15 rounds capacity mags (e.g. Glock 19)
• 1 compact pistol with a 6 round capacity mag (e.g. Glock 43)

In that case my survey response would be 90% of my inventory would hypothetically be restricted (ie. 9/10 of my firearms have either >10 mag capacity, are semi-auto rifles or AR derivatives).

Washington 2 question survey link

Oregon 2 question survey link

thank you for your help and defense of the second amendment

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[Xaevian]

Sure, why not. Thanks.

 

[SquirrelSlayer]

Done!

 

[zcap]

Thanks to those who have completed survey so far. Local data helps confirm that these bills affect a massive contingent of Washington state households which is something legislators are wary of.

 

[zcap]

Also, I added a survey link for Oregon as well. Might as well get ready for the legislative fight there as well.

 

[awshoot]

Maybe this is why so many polls show gun control support. I thought about it for a few moments and all the ways data can be nefariously used, especially if it is asking about what one owns, and decided not to click.

I know there is some risk about polls driving public opinion, but then, so too is there a risk that faith in polls drops when things like Trump winning the election happen. I think I'd prefer the loss of faith in polls.

EDIT: sorry to be such a curmudgeon if this is legit.

 

[zcap]

I specifically put the survey outside the forums so responses can *not* be tied to your forum account. Other than a county name and a percentage, no information is captured, and the survey itself doesn't explicitly mention firearms.

Anyway, you are right about surveys being asked in person or over the phone. Many people report responses that they think are more socially acceptable to the questioner.

 

[zcap]

Your point about pollsters and preference falsification is really important. 30% of Democrat or slightly Democrat leaning households own guns. That number should be terrifying to legislators who want to restrict the 2A. However, due to the negative portrayal of firearms and firearm owners in the US media, virtue signaling by high profile politicians and celebrities, and misleading ballot initiatives, such voters are less likely to be vocal about 2A issues (a form of preference falsification). That is one reason it is important to collect and publish data to reveal how US voters are actually much more pro-2A than the media reports or politicians generally believe. The more widely known it is how pro-2A US voters actually are, the more likely those that hide pro-2A views are to become public about their opinions as well as spark the interest of their peers in firearms and 2A issues.