Hello,
After conversing with some Washington state legislators, I can confirm that they are largely ignorant of gun ownership statistics and demographics. While they can choose to ignore the hundreds of protesters at the capital (thanks to everyone who showed up yesterday despite the weather), their ignorance of the reach of these newly proposed policies (magazine capacity and semi-auto rifle restrictions) make them much more vulnerable than they currently realize.
We can safely assume by precedents set by gun owners in states like in New Jersey that nearly no one is going to register their banned firearms or dispose of their standard capacity magazines. Under that assumption and based upon my research of sales, ownership rates and state demographics, the combination of restricting magazines and banning semi-autos will technically make over 85% of gun owning Washington state residents into felons (85% is very conservative estimate, I believe this number to likely be over 95% but am still sourcing survey and sales data for more rural areas of the state). A conservative estimate is that over 20% of Democrat leaning households, 38% of Independent and 46% of Republican households will have at least one member of the household classified as a felon. (edit: updated with per household rather than per capita data) Compounded with the social network effects, most Washington state residents will have someone in their immediate social circle classified as a felon by these new bills. These demographic dynamics make this legislation a powder keg waiting to blow up given the right messaging.
Due to my profession, I have access to reams of national and state level demographic datasets to help with targeted messaging, but one thing I don't have is good county level data. If you live in Washington state, please spend 30 seconds to answer the anonymous two question survey below. This data will be combined with other datasets to:
In that case my survey response would be 90% of my inventory would hypothetically be restricted (ie. 9/10 of my firearms have either >10 mag capacity, are semi-auto rifles or AR derivatives).
Washington 2 question survey link
Oregon 2 question survey link
thank you for your help and defense of the second amendment
After conversing with some Washington state legislators, I can confirm that they are largely ignorant of gun ownership statistics and demographics. While they can choose to ignore the hundreds of protesters at the capital (thanks to everyone who showed up yesterday despite the weather), their ignorance of the reach of these newly proposed policies (magazine capacity and semi-auto rifle restrictions) make them much more vulnerable than they currently realize.
We can safely assume by precedents set by gun owners in states like in New Jersey that nearly no one is going to register their banned firearms or dispose of their standard capacity magazines. Under that assumption and based upon my research of sales, ownership rates and state demographics, the combination of restricting magazines and banning semi-autos will technically make over 85% of gun owning Washington state residents into felons (85% is very conservative estimate, I believe this number to likely be over 95% but am still sourcing survey and sales data for more rural areas of the state). A conservative estimate is that over 20% of Democrat leaning households, 38% of Independent and 46% of Republican households will have at least one member of the household classified as a felon. (edit: updated with per household rather than per capita data) Compounded with the social network effects, most Washington state residents will have someone in their immediate social circle classified as a felon by these new bills. These demographic dynamics make this legislation a powder keg waiting to blow up given the right messaging.
Due to my profession, I have access to reams of national and state level demographic datasets to help with targeted messaging, but one thing I don't have is good county level data. If you live in Washington state, please spend 30 seconds to answer the anonymous two question survey below. This data will be combined with other datasets to:
- Demonstrate that the combination of these bills (specifically semi-auto rifle and magazine restrictions) will ban most firearms owned by Washington state residents.
- Publish research that county sheriffs can refer to support their decision to create 2A sanctuaries.
- Publicize how voters are actually much more pro-2A than the media reports or politicians believe.
- 4 AR rifles
- 1 AR pistol
- 4 pistols with factory standard 15 rounds capacity mags (e.g. Glock 19)
- 1 compact pistol with a 6 round capacity mag (e.g. Glock 43)
In that case my survey response would be 90% of my inventory would hypothetically be restricted (ie. 9/10 of my firearms have either >10 mag capacity, are semi-auto rifles or AR derivatives).
Washington 2 question survey link
Oregon 2 question survey link
thank you for your help and defense of the second amendment
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