Quantcast
  1. Sign up now and join over 35,000 northwest gun owners. It's quick, easy, and 100% free!

Risk-Free Preparedness

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by Sense Amid Madness, Jan 15, 2012.

  1. Sense Amid Madness

    Sense Amid Madness Oregon Member

    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    5
    Real preparedness to be self-sufficient in a crisis, especially for a family, is really expensive, depending of course on the degree. It's certainly true that not every reader of this forum believes that a SHTF scenario is likely enough to warrant serious preparedness, and spending serious money on stuff that might never get used. However, there is a very rational way to increase preparedness for crisis, no matter what your sense about the probability. That way is, simply, to buy ahead those things that your family uses anyway.

    With population increasing, currency devaluations, inflation trends, peak oil trends, rising labor costs in China and Wal-Mart, rising cost of environmental regulation, and degree that our current depressed economy is keeping prices in check, most STUFF is never likely to get less expensive than it is now. Couple all of that with current interests rates on passbook savings and CD's being silly low, and dollars in the bank are not well invested. Instead of making that $50 a week contribution to your savings account, or IRA, consider using it to buy ahead stuff that your family is, for sure, going to need to buy later anyway. Consider taking half of the $2000 of savings that you have in the bank, earning 1-1/2% interest, and spending it now to buy ahead things that you are going to be buying later anyway. Most of it will be only be more expensive later.

    Consider stocking up on a two-year supply of the basics that you will use even if no crisis does come: toiletries (bars of soap, razor blades, TP, toothpaste, aspirin), socks, shoes, boots, gloves, Campbell's soup, canned tuna, fruits, and vegetables; rice, beans, flour, and sugar in 50# bags that you transfers to lidded plastic pails; just-add-water casserole dishes; Jello. Buy it all as it comes on sale, then stock up to the limit of your finances, and the limit of your storage space. If you have more to spend, consider buying a five-year supply of the small items that keep forever (razor blades).

    There is NO downside to this kind of preparedness that isn't preparedness. In these times, this is just prudent planning for the family. If everyone did this, it would also be a short-term boost to our economy. Think how satisfying it will be to already have some supply of it when the masses are driving up prices through panic buying in response to even rumors of shortage.

    IMHO, this should be the first level of preparedness-that-isn't-preparedness for every family; well before the rifle and cases of ammo. Of course, if you really believe in the SHTF scenario, make your own decisions about priorities. There is plenty of room for individual judgement.
     
  2. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    6,267
    What would happen if it turns out to be deflation rather than inflation?
     
  3. rattler one-7

    rattler one-7 Washington New Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    2
    This is where people really get tripped up when trying to understand risk and often leads to the oft quoted "paralysis by analysis" (I hope I'm spelling it right).

    You must make your plans on what you thing will most likely happen and then try to supplement those plans for contingencies.

    Deflation is a possibility, but how do you quantify that? 5%? 1%?

    Inflation (IMHO) is a likelihood. 75%? 80%?

    Probably not the best statistical analysis, but I hope this helps.

    Worst case, if you choose your supplies wisely, you get to eat. :eek:
     
    mjbskwim and (deleted member) like this.
  4. Sense Amid Madness

    Sense Amid Madness Oregon Member

    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    5
    Your family would be comfortable. Seriously, the last episode of significant deflation in the U.S. occurred just prior to the Great Depression. It was brought on, as are all episodes of deflation, by the wild over-expansion of credit. The deflation period occurs when the wildly-expansive-credit phase ends abruptly.

    We just exited that over-expansion-of-credit-phase four or five years ago without a significant deflationary result; at least not for those items that most families buy regularly. However, if you see our economy returning to a condition of wildly expansive credit, which can never be sustained forever, you could consider living off of your stored goods, borrowing to your limit, saving dollars to your limit, and re-buying during the following depression/recession at fire-sale prices. But be careful about trusting your savings to the local bank.

    Of course, we have seen some deflation of prices in recent years. I'm thinking of the current depressed market prices for firearms and collectables, and all of the low prices for machine tools that one could see on eBay in the last few years. But it is hard for me to recall any reduction in prices for household goods other than the ever downward spiral in the cost of Chinese electronics. Maybe you can think of some.

    Even during the Great Depression, I don't think anyone would have regretted having a well-stocked pantry. Especially folks who lost their dollar savings to the collapse of the local bank.
     
  5. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    6,267
    Just thinking out loud and not saying anything LOL Most people are so far in debt they have no money in reality. If inflation hits it will rob those who have some money but they too will soon be broke. That is when deflation sets in as nobody has money. Inflation and deflation are partners in the same game. What I would be concerned about is when inflation hit's the stores will empty in my opinion and in about 3 days. Just my opinion of course and I am sure to be wrong LOL

    jj
     
  6. 19 Adam

    19 Adam rural Clackamas County, Oregon Active Member

    Messages:
    565
    Likes Received:
    104
    It always amazes me how many people I know that have a HUGH Blu-ray/DVD collection and not an extra can of food in the cupboard. I guess they think Hollywood will be the only thing they will have to live without in the future.
     
  7. Sasquatchvnv

    Sasquatchvnv Port Orchard Active Member

    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    171
    ^^^ You should do this if you haven't already. Do it now, while you still can. ^^^^

    This is the best advice you will get all day. You may notice stable pricing on luxury goods, but massive inflation is in the works for the necessities of life.

    The near term goal of big money is to make us too poor and desperate to resist the political changes that are on the way.
     
  8. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    6,267
    Geez I lost over $35000 on my house this year, glad you can call that insignificant :bluelaugh::bluelaugh:

    jj
     
  9. Sense Amid Madness

    Sense Amid Madness Oregon Member

    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    5
    Of course that is significant, and a tragedy for almost everyone forced to sell a home. But my comments relate to household goods, and "those items that most families buy regularly".

    I hope your loss was at least only in assessed value. I lost a ton that way, too; a few years after I "benefited" on paper, and through resulting assessed property taxes, from the speculative fever in real estate.
     
  10. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    6,267
    Maybe you could explain to me how the real numbers in unemployment and the amount of personal debts incured effect inflation if at all? Seems to me we should be in a time of deflation due to low GDP and high unemployment. Plus is anyone paying their debts right now?
     
  11. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,631
    Likes Received:
    918
    JJ,

    Personally, I do not think you are wrong here, in everything I have researched, read, watched and heard from those who i believe know what they are talking about, you are right on the money here.

    When Katrina hit, walmarts 100 - 200 miles away were stripped clean, there items I had trouble buying 800 miles away.

    When the grid collapsed in Ohio in the summer of 2003, iwas living in the center of the state of Michigan 1/2 our town had power the other 1/2 did not. I went to visit people the suburbs of Detroit, friends had me bring them gasoline because the pumps did not work and drained fuel tank (35 gallon tank) down to about 10 gallons and gave it to friends at my replacement costs, lots of people who saw this were begging for fuel, I had to just simply say no, I thought I was going to have to shoot a couple of people over a few gallons of gasoline, thats how bad it started to get in less than 3 days.

    In the last 3 months I have seen mixed nuts go up several doolars a container at sams, Jack links jerky went up from $6.82 to $8.82 in the last month. TP, hand soap, bottled water, peanut butter, cereal, canned vegetables yo name it gas gone way up, fuel is about $1.00 more per gallon now than it was last year.

    Housing prices have gone down because people are losing them because they are spending money trying to live. As well I see people buying larger tv's, a 52 inch when there 42 inch is just as good, but that same family of 3 (plus one away in college) do not have more 45 days food in the house, and that is only because the wife starting doing some extreme couponing, she is starting to see the light but the husband does not to believe it is possible. BTW he was just told he is going to be RIF'd in september from his federal job.
     
  12. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,631
    Likes Received:
    918
    Deflation from what I can see is only happening on over inflated things, not saying your house was over inflated in do not know enough about your life to make that opinion, but imho most everyone I know who has said there house had lost value paid more than I thought it worth when comparing wages of tweny years to housing prices of twenty years.

    There are thigns I have purchased in the couple of years that do cost less than they did before, but that is because they economy is so bad that manufacturers and retailers have been forced to cut their profit margins in order to continue to operate.

    I am really hoping to get a different position this spring or summer and relocate and buy a house and property, while prices are down. I foresee housing prices to continue to drop in a lot of places, while prices of consumables continue to rise. May not make sense but that is what i see happening, the same thing happened during the great depression and Weimar republic.

    "Federal Reserve officials are seriously considering giving the US economy—and especially the housing market—an added jolt with more quantitative easing." Which imho will cause my statement above to happen.

    News Headlines

    The true unemployment rate and inflation can viewed here. Shadow Government Statistics : Home Page

    I know I probably got off subject, but I just trying to state why I believe the original poster was right on track, having been out of work before and had rough times, I feel better knowing we have a two years food stores put away than a few extra grand lying around in the bank, so that is will be lost when the current ponzi scheme collapses.

    BTW, I really hate feeling the way I do about the economy and our currency, but no one to date has been able to show actual factual data to the contrary.
     
  13. Sense Amid Madness

    Sense Amid Madness Oregon Member

    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    5
    I’m no economist, so feel free to reject any of my ideas. High unemployment and our stagnant economy ARE surely having a moderating affect on prices. So are tight credit; the outsourcing of manufacturing to lower-cost third world countries; and an abundance natural gas, partly as a result of growing use of underground “fracking” technology.

    I think that we aren’t experiencing a general depression of commodity prices, however, because there are even more factors contributing to continued higher production costs, including: The affect of political instability in the Middle East and attendant crude oil speculation keeping up the cost of crude oil; the resulting higher prices for all petro-chemical products, including fertilizer; increasing populations and fast growing demands for energy and raw materials in China and other developing economies; increased environmental regulation that is raising manufacturing costs in the U.S.; growing environmental awareness in China; the demands for higher standard of living from the working class in China and other countries; pressure from human rights activists to improve working conditions in third-world manufacturing plants; outlawing of some cheap agri-pesticides; 2010 and 2011 weather conditions in various parts of the world that were adverse to grain crops; and massive fiscal-policy spending by the federal government to stimulate the economy; and others I can't think of.

    But I don’t know exactly how it all adds up, or how much any one factor contributes. There is also the affect of restrained business spending that stems from a lack of confidence in our political leadership, lack of confidence in the strength of economic recovery, and fear over the Euro-debt crisis. I have no idea if that restrained business investment/spending is having a net positive or negative impact on household/commodity prices.

    I doubt that anyone can explain it all exactly.
     
    Just Jim and (deleted member) like this.
  14. Sasquatchvnv

    Sasquatchvnv Port Orchard Active Member

    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    171
    The easiest way to truly explain it all is that all of the systems are 100%, absolutely, completely rigged in favor of the house. Don't hurt your head trying to apply some other logic to it.
     
    mjbskwim and (deleted member) like this.
  15. Sense Amid Madness

    Sense Amid Madness Oregon Member

    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    5
    Yes, to the extent that anyone has any money these days, and wherever prices ARE depressed, it is a good time to buy necessities. I was able to take small advantage of some pretty good buys on canned meat (two-pound canned ham for 1/3 off) and fish on sale in the last weeks where we live. (We tried Turkey Spam for the first time two weeks ago. It was tastier than we expected - even for my wife who turns her nose up at regular Spam. Loaded with salt and preservatives, but hunger is a good sauce.) Housing prices are a gamble: Buy now, or hope for even lower prices later? I have no idea. If you will be in a position to buy next summer, then I hope they will be even lower by then in your locale.

    What I hate is feeling the way I do about the leadership of this country, leadership from any political party.
     
  16. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    6,267
    It seems there is a balancing act going on with the economy. The stockmarket is kept pretty close to 12,400 with a little change that is corrected within a few days. Every time people get more money ahead there seems to be a "buy gold" push on which in effect helps keep too much money from being in the economy. Oil stays right around $100 per barrel and keeps joe average with no extra money. It seems the world is being kept in a normal outlook even in abnormal times.

    Just thinking it through to where you guys think it will end, how does it end?

    jj
     
  17. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,631
    Likes Received:
    918
    Not to be cute or smart here, but I think bible is pretty clear about all of this. Just not sure what we have to go through before all of the prophecies are fullfilled.
     
  18. mjbskwim

    mjbskwim Salmon,Idaho Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    10,434
    Likes Received:
    7,689
    And you were doing so good too.
    BTW tell that kid that's getting layed off at the end of the year to stop paying his bills and start stocking up.

    Me and my siblings had some trust money for my mom. I asked the girls(4 sisters) if they would be willing to put all the money in cash to get it out of the markets.
    One's friend,a broker in Portland,said there isn't a problem,unless you are in Italy or Greece.
    I said ,sure. Now remember,they are all sales people and have to see this in a positive light. Then go home and drink heavily.

    Mom since passed and we got most of the money,with a few things taking some time with the Patriot Act and all (that's what C Shwab said)

    Some was in an IRA. "You can roll it over...blah,blah"
    A couple did.I took cash. And I have been buying what I think I will need.A couple guns,AMMO,ammo,reloading equipment and extra food as I see fit.

    I have to say ,Sense Amid Madness,the line about getting 1 1/2-2% interest is spot on.Someone on here said the food index rose 30% in the last year?
    Hmmmm,savings or food?
    And a 45 day food supply? That is amazing for today's society.Most need to go to the store to get dinner.Or call for take out.

    So when the EMP strikes,taking out computers and hence, take out,we are doomed.
     
  19. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,631
    Likes Received:
    918
    "That is amazing for today's society.Most need to go to the store to get dinner.Or call for take out.

    So when the EMP strikes,taking out computers and hence, take out,we are doomed. "

    I actually live in the midwest, we ware now getting hit by our first storm this winter that is going make things messy, well you probably already figured it out, all people could talk about today was how they had to run out last night, at lunch today or on their way to make sure they had enough cat food, dog food or people food in their house.

    I was all I could do not to laugh at their ignorant worthless arses, I mean come on these people admitedly have not been without a job in 20 -35 years and do not have a couple of days supplies on hand.

    I say let a dang emp hit and natural attrition take these oxygen thiesves out.
     
  20. mjbskwim

    mjbskwim Salmon,Idaho Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    10,434
    Likes Received:
    7,689
    Well now .I have to say,over the years I always had some type of pay check.Doesn't make for a good prepper.
    If you have had a job for 25 years and a steady paycheck,most wouldn't feel the need to store goods.
    Heck ,how often does a real bad storm hit the area? What could possibly happen that we couldn't get dog food?

    We can always get people food right?
    Right?

    The oxygen thieves never see an end to their situation. They never see an end to everything they need right down the street at the store.
    Maybe getting there will be a problem.but the goods will still be there,right?

    Too many sheeple to take care of.

    I don't believe any being will take care of this.No such being,as far as I am concerned.

    Natural selection will take care of this.