Reality Check on the NO AMMO situation (Fishermen's Delta Park)

[Kelzebubba]

I also see that employees (and other scalpers with the free time to camp outside the stores for shipments) are buying much of it up to sell at triple+ profit.

If you catch employees doing that and can get definitive proof of it, turn it in to their corporate offices (never local). They will lose their job, most employers have strict rules about buying product from them for the purpose of reselling. I used to investigate that at a company I worked for per request of Loss Prevention.

 

[jib]

The only way the governments purchases of ammo has had any actual effect on the supply available for the public is because fear mongers are whipping up the sheep by spreading this silly crap that somehow its the governments fault.

I disagree, when the Government places a order for 1.6 BILLION rounds that creates A SHORTAGE to the public. How do you not get this :huh:

 

[Oathkeeper1775]

I know much of the empty ammo shelves are due to panicked citizens buyin up with they can while they can.

I also see that employees (and other scalpers with the free time to camp outside the stores for shipments) are buying much of it up to sell at triple+ profit.

There's another factor at play though.

Even though it's not armies of FEMA shoppers hitting hundreds of thousands of retail outlets, the massive Govt. ordering has dried up powder and primers. So those exotic rounds will suffer from a lack of components just like commercial 5.56 or .40 cal.

10-4,

I think the shelves resemble the store shelves in E Germany before and just-after the fall of the Iron curtain.

I've been working on my "zero-balance" since Nov, 2008 (see The 3 Little Pigs story); slowly building my supply with my vacation and other pleasures-monies. Here are some factors which I believe changed the way civilian ammo is being affected.

Is there a major difference between military and civilian components and raw materials? N

Is there is a finite quantity of components (raw materials) any country can produce? Y

Did Caspar Weinberger transfer all up-front R & D costs from the govt. onto the prospective contractors? Y

Did Bill Clinton shut down several major govt. ammunition depots in the early-mid 90s? Y

Does a 10+ year WOT have any impact on the amount of DOD ammo reserves? Y

Does NDAA give the government special buying power over the retail suppliers? Y

Has the Govt. made any recent large purchases (more than the all the civilians combined)? Y

Has the Govt. made any recent statements about limiting gun/ammunition purchases for civies? Y

Will Dicks's employees (and other such nepotisms) screw you before the items hit the shelves? Y

Has the US consumer purchased enough ammunition for 24 years of the worst day (5 million rounds per day X 24 years!) of the Iraq war? N

Can the govt. thwart civilian competition with the utilization of an Enterprise Architecture Grid (EA), also known as the Zachman Grid? Y

Can a person's personal opinion of the "key-player's character" in the current/past ammo shortage situation(s), be affected by how the effects of the situation affects him/her? Y

Many civilian ammo-shoppers didn't start in 2008; they may currently find themselves on "hind-tit"; (not necessarily the OP), and their frustration shows, but the "udder-reality" in today's market place which we share with the govt., is that somebody is gonna have what they need and somebody is not. Y

 

[1970camaroRS]

I disagree, when the Government places a order for 1.6 BILLION rounds that creates A SHORTAGE to the public. How do you not get this :huh:

Maybe because he understands that it's a request for production of "up to" a certain amount spread out over 5 years. 320 million a year (even though it will be no where near that much) is a drop in the bucket compared to what regular people buy every year. Remember if 10 million gun owners (out of 80-100 million total) buy an average of 2,000 rounds a year(little more than 150 a month), that's 20 billion rounds in a year. Versus 320 million a year from DHS.

It's simple math.

And logic.

Which you're failing to get.

 

[1970camaroRS]

I think the shelves resemble the store shelves in E Germany before and just-after the fall of the Iron curtain.

Wasn't aware of East Germany having guns and ammo stores...

Has the Govt. made any recent large purchases (more than the all the civilians combined)? Y

This isn't true. Do some math. I will do some for you in a minute.

Has the Govt. made any recent statements about limiting gun/ammunition purchases for civies? Y

Once again, not true. The buying power of over 80 million gun owners is orders of magnitude larger than the Feds.

Has the US consumer purchased enough ammunition for 24 years of the worst day (5 million rounds per day X 24 years!) of the Iraq war? N

Don't agree with this either. Not sure why you're extending it 24 years. The 1.7 billion order everyone is belly-aching over works out to 5 million rounds a day for 340 days...25 short of one year let alone 24 years. However, if what you say is true, 5 million per day for 24 years is 43.8 billion rounds. That's roughly equal to 20 million people buying 2,000 rounds in a year. Think what 80 million gun owners collectively buy in a year. Even if those 80 million only buy one box of 50, that's still 4 billion rounds in a year.

Can the govt. thwart civilian competition with the utilization of an Enterprise Architecture Grid (EA), also known as the Zachman Grid? Y

More silly thinking. As someone who works in the manufacturing planning world, I can tell that you really don't understand what that means.

I outright ignored some of your other points, mainly because they don't matter or were true. But in the end, I really wish people would just apply some simple math every once in a while.

 

[xm193]

Anybody that was of legal age for the last 5 years and didn't stock up on ammo has nobody to blame but themselves. I know that everybody's financial situation is different but you could see this coming from a mile away. Now imagine the same scarcities with things we take for granted IE toilette paper,food,fuel ect

 

[JackThompson]

Don't agree with this either. Not sure why you're extending it 24 years. The 1.7 billion order everyone is belly-aching over works out to 5 million rounds a day for 340 days...25 short of one year let alone 24 years. However, if what you say is true, 5 million per day for 24 years is 43.8 billion rounds. That's roughly equal to 20 million people buying 2,000 rounds in a year. Think what 80 million gun owners collectively buy in a year. Even if those 80 million only buy one box of 50, that's still 4 billion rounds in a year.

Just a quick note of clarification on this section here.

The quote for "How many rounds are expended in Iraq" was 5 Million rounds per month, not per day. So it wouldn't be 340 days, but 340 months, or 28.3333333 years.

A quick fact check on that lead me to one blog (If you can believe anything on the internet, which is always suspect, but let's take a peek anyway.)

Steve Sailer: iSteve: The number of bullets fired in Iraq

He goes over a set of numbers, separates small arms fire (Bullets as we know it) from medium arms (20-50 caliber) and rockets etc.

The small arms ammunition expended in 2004 according to this guy was around 250,000 rounds per day (Which he mentions in the article does a tremendous amount of harm to the civilian populations sense of well being, and love for Americans btw, but that's a side note.)

So if 250,000 rounds per day is expended, then we can figure that's 91,250,000 rounds per year expended. (This included ammunition expended for training purposes too)

I've also heard that the 1.6 billion number was expanded to 2 billion. (I think you had to include a few other departments like the Social Security Administration, IRS, Department of Education among others to get the 2 billion number.)

So 2 billion divided by 91,250,000 equals 21.91 years worth of ammunition.

So far I'm just talking math here, and not really any opinion of my own, I just want to see this empirically laid out.

Now I will wander into the minefield of opinion...

Some have said "Yeah, it's 2 billion rounds, but that's not ALL AT ONCE, it's an order to reserve the purchase of this ammunition over time!"

Ok, let's follow that through to it's logical end.

Assume I wrote up a contract to "Lock in today's prices for tomorrow"...

Let's say I want this contract to lock in the prices of today's bullets for the next 20 years. (Has there EVER been a purchase contract besides the Panama Canal that extended 20+ years?)

Imagine if these folks had locked in a price like that to cover their ammo in 2013 to supply the needed ammunition for their operations through 2033.

That 20 year contract allows them to expend ammunition inside the borders of the United States at the Iraq War rate of 250,000 rounds PER DAY for the whole 20 years.... even on Christmas... even on St. Patrick's Day.. (and have 2 years of extra ammunition stored somewhere as surplus.)

So even the "They just secured the contract" thing doesn't make me feel all that great..

I have no idea where I was going with this, I just pulled up my calculator and started pontificating outloud..

Back to work!

 

[JackThompson]

Ok, so here's another roving thought.

What if they secured a 40 year contract?!?!?!

Then they would only need to expend 125,000 rounds of ammunition inside our borders per day...

The point is, they either actually need it.. hence the purchase.

Or they want to stockpile it, hence the purchase.

I'm not thrilled about the concept of them thinking they NEED this now, or want to have this capability stockpiled somewhere.

I just don't see a good reason or a good scenario where this makes sense.

I've even heard some police departments are struggling to get their needed ammunition. Maybe DHS will have a handout program for LEO's...

 

[Oathkeeper1775]

Wasn't aware of East Germany having guns and ammo stores...


This isn't true. Do some math. I will do some for you in a minute.


Once again, not true. The buying power of over 80 million gun owners is orders of magnitude larger than the Feds.


Don't agree with this either. Not sure why you're extending it 24 years. The 1.7 billion order everyone is belly-aching over works out to 5 million rounds a day for 340 days...25 short of one year let alone 24 years. However, if what you say is true, 5 million per day for 24 years is 43.8 billion rounds. That's roughly equal to 20 million people buying 2,000 rounds in a year. Think what 80 million gun owners collectively buy in a year. Even if those 80 million only buy one box of 50, that's still 4 billion rounds in a year.


More silly thinking. As someone who works in the manufacturing planning world, I can tell that you really don't understand what that means.

I outright ignored some of your other points, mainly because they don't matter or were true. But in the end, I really wish people would just apply some simple math every once in a while.

My math sucks sure, and I truly appreciate that being pointed out; thanks.

I can't find that the rest of your premises are fully supported with actual numbers (same standards you set for me and the other "bellyachers") of what the civilians are actually buying. The buying power of 80 million gun owners isn't even my idea of a definitive number; there are a lot of "ifs" being offered.

May we see the simple (real #s) math on how much ammunition the civilians have bought, ordered, or entered into fixed contracts for the next....oh say 5 years so we can compare it with what the government is buying?

If I'm wrong, let it be about the numbers on both sides of the opinion, not because I made an a$$ of myself; that would be a false positive.

Do you really mean you haven't heard anything the government has said about assault weapons bans, taxes on and limits to ammunition sales and magazine capacities, the "buy a shotgun" quote, you didn't think my comment on that was true or relevant to the hysteria; Really?

Government Ammunition Depots being shut down in the early-mid 90's should stand alone as a possible cause and now, (with the familiar taste of foot in my mouth) I see I should have left my opinion at that.

If all the "bellyachers" are wrong and the "shortage" many people are experiencing is only or mostly because of the civilian (scared little girls I think it was) hysteria, it doesn't change the reality for those who cannot find the ammunition they want.

I really do appreciate being part of this discussion, great post Burt. Thanks again.