Question: Has there ever been a 'realistic' study of how many would be killed & wounded in a complete U.S. Gun Confiscation?

[nammac]

It'll be ugly, it'll be messy and it sure as heck will be bloody. Let's hope they don't lose their minds to the point of attempting confiscation...

 

[Howard1955]

I think a concerted effort to confiscate firearms in a door-to-door roundup would fail miserably, and probably ignite a second American Revolution.

Whether the confiscators were LEO's, Blue Helmets, or some other party - I don't think they'd be able to carry out very many raids before the local patriots organized and killed them.

It seems more likely that our "representative government" will just keep on with their whittling tactics, and try to make the 2nd Amendment wither away.

It also seems likely that if even we don't have another American Revolution, we'll probably have a second Civil War.

Whatever happens, it seems prudent for us to hang on to our most effective fighting guns.

In answer to the OP: I don't think a casualty estimate can be done, since we don't know how this will all unfold. But a shooting war here in the continental USA will certainly be a hardship on everyone.

We might get blindsided by some newfangled strategy, like "swarm-bots". How we would fight those little monsters, I don't know.

 

[CamoDeafie]

We might get blindsided by some newfangled strategy, like "swarm-bots". How we would fight those little monsters, I don't know.

Powerful electromagnets and lots of 000 buckshot in the air?

Tesla coil towers might be workable too, if they can discharge enough electromagnetic signals to jam and fry circuits in the electronics...

 

[DunRanull]

US Agency's won't be the ones to do the work.... By that time Blue Helmets would be in country.

Now imagine how many *would* fire back on an obvious occupying force...

All patriots would take it as their duty to resist and fire on any occupying force, including Blue Helmets stationed here "for our own good". It would be an interesting time. It would be interesting to see how the UN would finance such military action without US monetary support.

 

[DunRanull]

Not sure it is the same chart but the data should be the same. Anyway, this covers the 1900 - 1999 and shows a low around 1958-60ish: Homicide and Suicide in America, 1900-1998 | Hacienda Publishing

And this covers 1960-2017 (but has some Anti crap embedded, be forewarned): The U.S. Murder Rate Is Up But Still Far Below Its 1980 Peak It shows that we are at historically low murder rates -- equal to the low in 1960.

EDIT: subtracting Chicago, Baltimore, and other crime-ridden localities, I wonder what the murder rate would look like for the rest of the country.

EDIT2: Clearly this link is trying to put an Anti spin on the data, but by their own calculation, excluding Chicago, Detroit, Washington D.C. and New Orleans, would drop the murder rate in 2015 from 4.9 to 4.6/100k. Adding Baltimore, Oakland, and St. Louis to the exclusion list drops the rate to 4.4/100k. What Is The Murder Rate If We Exclude Cities Like Chicago? - The Meme Policeman

I'd like to see the stats on violent crime AND victimisation by RACE. I suspect that if certain minority groups are taken from the over-all statistics, the violent crime rate would drop substantially. Seems like a study touching on some of this was done recently, but I don't have it on my fingertips...

 

[shojikitsune]

And who in the he!! do you suppose would do such a thing? And even better how many people would put themselves out there and say whether or not they would go down in a blaze of glory?

 

[tac]

'In 1920, the assault rate was 2.39/100k. In 1999 the assault rate had risen to 419.28/100k. That's a 17,543% increase.'

Link, please.

Remember that I live where this is alleged to have happened. It was NOT linked in any way to the then recent banning of conventional handguns in Great Britain [but NOT Northern Ireland], as none of our legally-held handguns had been used in any crime. Except for the two[?] used by Hamilton in the Dunblane Massacre that brought about the handgun ban.

 

[11Charlie]

View attachment 619160

Why you quote me?!!!!! What I said has nothing to do with this and it never said I wouldn't watch my brothers six or him mine.

 

[Certaindeaf]

Let's hope they don't have the stones to try it.

The unintended consequences could be something to consider.

 

[308]

There's always the quiet sneaky bastages who will relish hunting confiscators at night, after they have gone home.
That could be pure Unintended Consequences type fantasy though.

I do remember that Boston bombing kid with barely a plan-A who was able to escape and evade all the gung-ho tactical armored up thugs running around neighborhoods telling regular citizens to get the f&%$ back into their home. The kid only got caught when a neighbor saw something in their backyard boat. Imagine sneaky bastages with plan-A,B,C,D,E,F

 

[shojikitsune]

Why you quote me?!!!!! What I said has nothing to do with this and it never said I wouldn't watch my brothers six or him mine.

It was my brain doing word association while not completely awake. I took your post to mean something different. My apologies.

 

[11Charlie]

It was my brain doing word association while not completely awake. I took your post to mean something different. My apologies.

Been there and done that. All good brother

 

[Longbeard]

Not the US because we haven't tried that experiment (yet), but the UK has:

In 1920 the English Right to Firearms was essentially ended and then in the ensuing decades, gun laws became increasingly draconian. In 1920, the assault rate was 2.39/100k. In 1999 the assault rate had risen to 419.28/100k. That's a 17,543% increase.

Article about the study: Carlisle Moody: Handguns Stop Murders

The study itself which outlines how the introduction of the wheellock and then the flintlock lead to successive decreases in crime. Author postulates this is due to the increased potential costs in assaulting people (even a little old lady could win against against a young strong bully if she had a gun) and examines but discounts the civilizing process and the introduction of police. It is worth the time to read the study if you ever intend to discuss the issue with people: http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp158.pdf

Thank You, that is what I was looking for.

LB

 

[Longbeard]

Everyone, I pretty much put it in the title. Just like before the planned WW2 invasion of Japan, has there ever
been a comprehensive, non-partisan, study of how many would be killed & wounded in an attempted, complete
gun confiscation in the U.S. ?

Rest assured that many would resist and refuse to go along meekly like those that marched into gas chambers.

With Presidential candidates making it an issue it would be an interesting debate point. Especially because a
former candidate suggested nuking American cities that refused to: "give up their guns."

What would be an acceptable level of killed & wounded for a candidate? 30 million, 40 million, 60 million?
Its almost like discussing the casualty rates in a nuclear exchange.

Please don't reply with "Out of my cold dead hands!" I was looking for factual numbers.

If this is offensive please ignore it.

L.B.

I had forgotten. The Elites always keep guns for themselves as evidenced by the Shotgun of Nikita Kruschev:

L.B.

 

[Ura-Ki]

I had forgotten. The Elites always keep guns for themselves as evidenced by the Shotgun of Nikita Kruschev:

L.B.

That's ok, I got no problem with "War Prizes" and most of them don't even know how to load or use said guns!
They are nothing but wall hangers, den art, braggin pieces to show off! Don't do any good when your layin on top of it in a puddle of your own making!

 

[Vendor Hidden]

I'm sure I've linked to this blog post by Larry Correia before on this topic. It's long but definitely worth the read.

The 2nd Amendment is Obsolete, Says Congressman Who Wants to Nuke Omaha.

He wrote it last year in response to Rep. Swalwell's threat to confiscate guns and nuke the population it they resisted.

 

[308]

I'm sure I've linked to this blog post by Larry Correia before on this topic. It's long but definitely worth the read.

The 2nd Amendment is Obsolete, Says Congressman Who Wants to Nuke Omaha.

He wrote it last year in response to Rep. Swalwell's threat to confiscate guns and nuke the population it they resisted.

Damn good read right there. Thanks.

 

[awshoot]

'In 1920, the assault rate was 2.39/100k. In 1999 the assault rate had risen to 419.28/100k. That's a 17,543% increase.'

Link, please.
...

Link is in the post I made, both to the article and the academic study.

Edit: here they are again:
Carlisle Moody: Handguns Stop Murders
http://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp158.pdf

 

[DivCurlGrad72]

Damn good read right there. Thanks.

Tons of great comments at the end of the article as well.

 

[awshoot]

I am skeptical that if confiscations start, there will be any organized effort to resist, or if there are, they will be limited in scope. Think Waco or Mallaheur (yeah -- I can't spell that, to lazy to look up). Today I was reading about Red Flag confiscations in FL under the law signed by their Republican governor: Thousands of guns taken under Red Flag law, but South Florida lags in applying it

2000 residents in the last 18 months have had their guns seized. Including this guy whose name is similar to someone on an order but who himself is not RedFlagged: Florida Man Has Firearms Rights Taken Away Over Mistaken Identity

Not only is there very little heard about this, there is very little apparent violence related to the confiscation, and the police seem perfectly happy to do it as opposed to objecting to a law that violates fundamental principles of due process.

If it came right down to it, I would end up in the turn-in line. The only other option is to make a Custerian last stand that does nothing but cause immense immediate harm to my family, and in the end, I'd just be dead. I suspect that isn't a popular thing to say, but it's the truth -- even if there are a million people who duke it out, they will be dispersed, unorganized, ineffective, and dead. The only way it would be worthy of such risk, is if at the state level, entire state governments were willing to secede and would accept volunteers from other states.