Oregon Primary results hangover, talk me off the figurative ledge.

[OldBroad44]

A quick calculation shows the Dems turnout was damn near 20% greater than the Repub turnout for Gov Primary vote. Not a good sign. At that rate we would have to convince 11% percent of Dems to vote Buehler and I don't think that would ever happen.

I think its possible 11 percent of registered dems could vote buehler. Im a registered dem, but I find much to hate in both parties. I register dem because that way I get to vote in the primary that usually matters. Except for losing power in the primary, i'd register independent.

I listened to the rep debate, and I've decided to go with buehler. He's not as pro 2A as I would like. But his statement that he would not enforce 43 because its unconstitutional means he is much better than brown on 2A. And in this world we usually dont have the choice between ideal and worse. Its often the choice between bad and worse. And the difference between bad and worse really matters.

Buehler is a moderate republican who could attract independents. Carpenter's platform was mostly being a trump clone. That would never win in oregon. And Brown has governed poorly and excites practically no one. Even staunch dems are unhappy about all the corruption and the fact that she and the dems did nothing on pers.

I think Buehler just might win. At the least, I think it will be a real race.

 

[OldBroad44]

Maybe we can start a pro-2A colony on the moon?

Try reading The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, an old SF classic by heinlein.

That's the book where the phrase TANSTAAFL came from. There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. I had a gun named tanstaafl. Tansy for short. Beautiful colt Anacona .44 mag with 6 inch barrel. Firing pin broke on third round. Bad. Gave me excuse to send back to factory for repair and get colt custom trigger job and magnaporting. Good. Great fun to shoot. Good. bubblegum to carry. Bad. Tanstaafl.

 

[OldBroad44]

You're forgetting the 45% of potential voters who COULD NOT vote this time. Those are the unaffiliated voters who make up 45% of the electorate in the general election. That's why Sam Carpenter could not have beaten Brown. Put up a far right conservative against Brown and the vast majority of that 45% goes to Brown. If they liked far right conservatism they'd be registered as Republicans. These are the voters that COULD vote for Buehler, and depending on how he campaigns, he could win.

The candidate whose image is most moderate will win. And here's why, they will get the vast majority of the 45% in the middle, and (hopefully) all of their party base. The Democrats are only 35% of total voters. The Republicans have 30% of total voters. Neither party can win without a majority of the non-affiliated, independent voters. Why are they independent? Because they don't like either party. So they will vote for the candidate that is LEAST like his or her own party. That's not Carpenter or Brown. That is Buehler. Buehler can win, but only if the Republican base votes for him.

We really need to lean on the contrarian Republicans that we know. You know who they are. They are the ones who have already thrown in the towel, and said that if Carpenter didn't win they aren't voting. They are the ones who will elect Brown by stubbornly staying home and not voting. If you know people like that ask them if they really want Brown to win, because that's what their scorched earth attitude will ensure.

I agree that the independents are critical. And I think the numbers are even better than you indicate, because I think many independents are registered dems so as to not throw away their primary vote.

 

[Colts4me]

It's funny to me, people think they get he choice because they vote in the primary. It's not true of course, the party picks who you vote for and you have nothing to do with the process of who they pick. As an independent at least you stand with your own values and not the full agenda of a party. Yes the vote in November is going to be the lesser of two evils but I had no part in putting that evil on your ballot.

 

[etrain16]

I will say this, in about 2 years, this forum will be a ghost town once 43 and 44 pass, and Kate and the dems have unrestricted control of the orgy of power they will have, and One I love it here! I have made more strong friendships here then any where else, and that lasts beyond any thing that happens, but it wall be a sad place to visit and reminisce over times past, where folks could enjoy freedoms now lost, and poor Joe Link will have sweated and blead t
True Red for naught! This saddens me greatly, a fine as any forum of folks from all over who have been trampled and beaten by a system that could have been reined in and controlled by thinking folks who couldn' be bothered to get off their asses and do something to stop the bleeding of our rights!
I'l still be here, I'll be the cold and bitter old man quiet reading the various censored threads and sharpening my claws for the day hard men must stand and fight for those who would not stand and fight for them selves!

I'm not convinced of the death of this site. Seems Calguns continues to do just fine with all the restrictions down there. Maybe some topics will change, certainly things like "show your guns" will quiet down, but I think the interest in guns will cause the forum to continue on for a long time. Perhaps I'm too optimistic, but I can't see this going away, even if that BS law passes. I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out.

 

[GlockFan1990]

Less then 30% of Republican's even bothered to vote in this primary. Pathetic! And I see more posts then not on Facebook of people now saying because their preferred candidate didn't win they are not even going to vote in November. Hell less then 1500 people even bothered to spend the 5 minutes to summit a comment objecting to the draft ballot title to the most restrictive gun ban in history. This all has me not feeling hopeful at all. Might as well start planning my evacuation plans to move to Idaho. I need a stong drink or two...

 

[etrain16]

Less then 30% of Republican's even bothered to vote in this primary. Pathetic! And I see more posts then not on Facebook of people now saying because their preferred candidate didn't win they are not even going to vote in November. Hell less then 1500 people even bothered to spend the 5 minutes to summit a comment objecting to the draft ballot title to the most restrictive gun ban in history. This all has me not feeling hopeful at all. Might as well start planning my evacuation plans to move to Idaho. I need a stong drink or two...

My opinion is that Republicans are bigger crybabies when their "perfect" candidate isn't on the ballot or doesn't win. Rather than try to win the fight, they go off and pout and refuse to vote because they can't get exactly what they want. Honestly, that's part of the reason I'm no longer part of the Republican party. People can't see the bigger battle and that we can win, even if we can't get everything they want. Some folks would rather let Kate f'ing Brown win than case a vote for Knute. What kind of short-sighted BS is that? It really gets to me sometimes. I will vote for Knute because the alternative is 1000% worse. We already know what Kate will give us, Knute may be a question mark, but I seriously doubt he'd be actively working against our rights like Kate will.

Maybe Republicans could learn a lesson from Democrats here - you rally behind your damn candidate, whether they're a perfect reflection of what you want or not. And THAT is how they keep winning elections and we keep losing them.

 

[nammac]

My opinion is that Republicans are bigger crybabies when their "perfect" candidate isn't on the ballot or doesn't win. Rather than try to win the fight, they go off and pout and refuse to vote because they can't get exactly what they want. Honestly, that's part of the reason I'm no longer part of the Republican party. People can't see the bigger battle and that we can win, even if we can't get everything they want. Some folks would rather let Kate f'ing Brown win than case a vote for Knute. What kind of short-sighted BS is that? It really gets to me sometimes. I will vote for Knute because the alternative is 1000% worse. We already know what Kate will give us, Knute may be a question mark, but I seriously doubt he'd be actively working against our rights like Kate will.

Maybe Republicans could learn a lesson from Democrats here - you rally behind your damn candidate, whether they're a perfect reflection of what you want or not. And THAT is how they keep winning elections and we keep losing them.

 

[Colts4me]

My opinion is that Republicans are bigger crybabies when their "perfect" candidate isn't on the ballot or doesn't win. Rather than try to win the fight, they go off and pout and refuse to vote because they can't get exactly what they want. Honestly, that's part of the reason I'm no longer part of the Republican party. People can't see the bigger battle and that we can win, even if we can't get everything they want. Some folks would rather let Kate f'ing Brown win than case a vote for Knute. What kind of short-sighted BS is that? It really gets to me sometimes. I will vote for Knute because the alternative is 1000% worse. We already know what Kate will give us, Knute may be a question mark, but I seriously doubt he'd be actively working against our rights like Kate will.

Maybe Republicans could learn a lesson from Democrats here - you rally behind your damn candidate, whether they're a perfect reflection of what you want or not. And THAT is how they keep winning elections and we keep losing them.

People should have more voice in how the cadidate is picked or you end up with criminals like kits Haber winning only to have them thrown out and replaced by worse. Those smoke filled back rooms that pick who will run have a lot of self intrest involved over the public intrest. If elections were fair and real there would be a none of the above on the ballot which would force the parties to pick better people.

People fool themselves that they vote for the best person, that person wasnt' allowed on the ballot.

 

[CountryGent]

Beautiful colt Anacona .44 mag with 6 inch barrel.

Oh my, those are some fine revolvers.

My opinion is that Republicans are bigger crybabies when their "perfect" candidate isn't on the ballot or doesn't win. Rather than try to win the fight, they go off and pout and refuse to vote because they can't get exactly what they want. Honestly, that's part of the reason I'm no longer part of the Republican party. People can't see the bigger battle and that we can win, even if we can't get everything they want. Some folks would rather let Kate f'ing Brown win than case a vote for Knute. What kind of short-sighted BS is that? It really gets to me sometimes. I will vote for Knute because the alternative is 1000% worse. We already know what Kate will give us, Knute may be a question mark, but I seriously doubt he'd be actively working against our rights like Kate will.

Maybe Republicans could learn a lesson from Democrats here - you rally behind your damn candidate, whether they're a perfect reflection of what you want or not. And THAT is how they keep winning elections and we keep losing them.

 

[Colts4me]

This is extreme but it makes the point how the system works.

We the democrat' put our best picks up for the primary ballot.

Chairman Mao.
Joe Stalin
Bernie Sanders

We the repubs put our best pick on the primary ballot.

Mayor Bloomberg
Jim Jones
Alex Baldwin

Oh what a glee filled moment as you cast your vote for who the parties pick Oh but you can't expect any better and they are the parties choice because the party knows best, right Hillary

 

[Captain O]

Jesus help us all.

 

[etrain16]

People should have more voice in how the cadidate is picked or you end up with criminals like kits Haber winning only to have them thrown out and replaced by worse. Those smoke filled back rooms that pick who will run have a lot of self intrest involved over the public intrest. If elections were fair and real there would be a none of the above on the ballot which would force the parties to pick better people.

People fool themselves that they vote for the best person, that person wasnt' allowed on the ballot.

It's true - politics is a shady, awful business. My point simply is that we have really only one recourse with these people - the ballot box. Now, if we get lucky, of course, the corrupt ones get booted out and go to jail, but we all know that's a rare occurrence.

The main point I was making however is that if there is any hope to unseat the long-held Democrat stronghold in Salem, those who are interested in doing so, whether they be Republicans, Independents, Libertarians or non-affilated, need to find a way to come together under the common goal of removing sitting problem. The primary made it clear - Republicans are quite divided on who they think should be their candidate. Now that decision's been made. It's time for all those that want the Dem stranglehold in Salem to end to back the one and only option to do so this November - Knute. Believe me, I wish it were someone else, but we know the danger bloody Kate presents to us as gun owners. Our best hope, at this time, is to create a stalemate by preventing a super-majority and giving the Governors' seat to Buehler. If people can't both come together behind that idea and show up and vote in November, it will be an easy walk through for Kate, and those that chose to sit home and pout or throw votes away to some candidate with no chance of winning, will have helped walk her through the door. I refuse to play that petty game. I will cast my vote to keep her out. I hope many Oregonians do the same.

 

[etrain16]

This is extreme but it makes the point how the system works.

We the democrat' put our best picks up for the primary ballot.

Chairman Mao.
Joe Stalin
Bernie Sanders

We the repubs put our best pick on the primary ballot.

Mayor Bloomberg
Jim Jones
Alex Baldwin

Oh what a glee filled moment as you cast your vote for who the parties pick Oh but you can't expect any better and they are the parties choice because the party knows best, right Hillary

I think Dennis Richardson was a great choice in 2014, but too many Oregonians, instead of getting behind him, tossed their votes to 3rd party candidates. And Kitzhaber (who led us to Kate Brown), who barely broke 50%, walked away with it. And here we are, 4 years later, getting ready to do it again. Kate Brown has made it clear - she will actively work to take our rights away. Any chance we have to stop that from happening is a better choice. Knute may not be as good a choice as Dennis Richardson, but I have no reason to believe he would work to actively take our rights. That makes the choice quite clear to me.

 

[nwslopoke]

Many gun owners are like the Porche owners that don't know the engines in the back. Then say, I just drive the thing.

I know a guy that just built an 80% 1911. Came out really nice. I reminded him to vote. Asked him if he voted. Uhhh...ok. This is the problem. Gun owners that just drive the thing.

 

[elsie]

How long should someone stay, wasting energy, money, and loosing their freedom before its ok to leave? Voting does not seem to work in this state, and we can't shoot the bastards, so whats the alternative? Oregon Republicans are the ones that pride themselves on not being lazy welfare leeches but are too lazy to vote, and its a snake eating its tail, because the stronger the democrats death grip becones, the less hope it seems republicans have to win. Portland owns Oregon, the dems in the urban areas are simply more apt to vote. And if 50% is "high" turnout, and they win by a handful of points, then 25-30% or less of the population makes the rules for the other 70-75%

Whats the solution? Its a question that has been asked for at least 20 years, and has yet to be answered correctly.

For the election cycle that tossed the incumbent Chuck Riley out (I think 2 cycles ago), he lost by a bit over 1000 votes. If that number of conservatives had moved in or stayed, he may have been able to maintain his position. He might not have been the best of the conservatives but he would have been a heck of a lot better than what we ended up with.

You have to keep the districts that are 2A friendly and you have to turn more to get representation at the state level, regardless of who the governor and sec. of state is. You do this by finding the areas that have a close margin and move people in so that they can put in a 2A supporter. Oregon's big problem now is that they are basically a one party system controlled by the ants around the I5 corridor. But that also limits the number of state reps they can have. It's unlikely that you'll turn those warrens but you can turn everyone else. Take a lesson from the Rajneeshee's. Move in and take over. It's kind of like the electoral college. If you ignore too many areas, you lose. If you keep running away to hide in a corner, it won't matter that you have staunch support in your neighborhood. The rest of the state will vote against you and you will lose.

You don't necessarily have to live inside an ant warren where you're surrounded by the groupthink. But you can tip the scales in a close race.


elsie

 

[Jonnyuma]

I'm not 100% on board with the prinary results either, but even more disappointed in the turnout.
However, I'm not pessimistic about November's outcomes based solely on those facts and figures. Independents and the disengaged are a pretty large number... I know people, conservative pro2A people, who just don't pay attention until late October or early November... it's all just chatter and noise until it gets real in the general.
I was one of em up until about 10 yrs ago. Staunchly pro2A, generally (okay, always) voted a straight party ticket, but I didn't much care about primaries or debates because I already knew what levers I'd be pulling in Nov. I'm still not convinced that my letters, emails, and primary vote(s) carry much sway or effect the the general outcome but I do it anyway. A lot of "us" still don't, but swing pro-gun, pro-freedom, anti-tax when it counts.

 

[Colts4me]

It's true - politics is a shady, awful business. My point simply is that we have really only one recourse with these people - the ballot box. Now, if we get lucky, of course, the corrupt ones get booted out and go to jail, but we all know that's a rare occurrence.

The main point I was making however is that if there is any hope to unseat the long-held Democrat stronghold in Salem, those who are interested in doing so, whether they be Republicans, Independents, Libertarians or non-affilated, need to find a way to come together under the common goal of removing sitting problem. The primary made it clear - Republicans are quite divided on who they think should be their candidate. Now that decision's been made. It's time for all those that want the Dem stranglehold in Salem to end to back the one and only option to do so this November - Knute. Believe me, I wish it were someone else, but we know the danger bloody Kate presents to us as gun owners. Our best hope, at this time, is to create a stalemate by preventing a super-majority and giving the Governors' seat to Buehler. If people can't both come together behind that idea and show up and vote in November, it will be an easy walk through for Kate, and those that chose to sit home and pout or throw votes away to some candidate with no chance of winning, will have helped walk her through the door. I refuse to play that petty game. I will cast my vote to keep her out. I hope many Oregonians do the same.

The people never get an honest choice on the ballot because the system lets' the parties pick the candidate. Democrats tell you who you can vote for and so do repubs. That system is failing us and it really doesn't matter how you vote because everyone is corrupt or they wouldnt be chosen to run.

Let me use my best example, the last potus election. Democrats forced Hillary on the party, they were so corrupt it was amazing. Trump wasn't forced on the repubs, he won the repubs votes over 13 choices. Trump is by far better than Hillary and the people got to choose him only because his billions made him bigger than the system. We could have had another Bush foisted on us with many more years of managed decline and open borders but when people get an honest vote they pick who they want and not who the party tells them they must take.

 

[Jonnyuma]

Trump is by far better than Hillary and the people got to choose him only because his billions made him bigger than the system.

Clinton outraised and outspent Trump by almost 2 to 1.

 

[Colts4me]

Clinton outraised and outspent Trump by almost 2 to 1.

Its not the point, Trump only got on the ballot because he could buy a spot. The party would never have chosen him, it's the people in the party would voted him on the ballot. It was the first time in my lifetime the people chose who they wanted on the ballot.