Preparedness Paradox

[The Heretic]

Preparedness paradox - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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[ma96782]

Aloha, Mark

 

[Xaevian]

While I get where the article is going, I don't really agree. A disaster (in the natural sense) cannot be prevented. You can't stop an earthquake, volcano, tsunami, or torrential storm, for example. You can only mitigate the effects by predictions, and those predictions are never 100 percent.

And also, the "preparedness paradox" is an illusion, as anyone can see, hear, or feel that a major event has taken place, regardless of what the end result was. People might say, "we really dodged that bullet".

Take the Covid pandemic as an example, which is the lens I feel this article is really geared/biased for. Those that are claiming this event is a dud don't usually claim it is a falsehood. It is acknowledged as an event, but a 99% survival rate even before a vaccine was developed just makes the "preparedness" look so much better than it actually was. Like building levees in a desert.

Typing on a phone, so don't expect a doctoral thesis, to those that like to pick apart everything to satisfy their own normalcy and cognitive biases.

 

[ma96782]

SOME believe that the GOVT will provide and indeed they have lived their life that way.




Aloha, Mark

 

[The Heretic]

And also, the "preparedness paradox" is an illusion, as anyone can see, hear, or feel that a major event has taken place, regardless of what the end result was. People might say, "we really dodged that bullet".

I saw it in the Y2K preps.

After Y2K a LOT of people said that it was a case of a false alarm, but you know why we "dodged that bullet"? Because we dodged; for many years we prepared for Y2K by spending a lot of time, effort and money on refactoring software/firmware and hardware to remove the issue. If we had done nothing, some very bad things would have happened.

Now granted, maybe not as bad as some people said would happen - certainly not TEOTWAWKI - but all those mitigation efforts did have an impact on the possible issues.

And that is why it isn't an illusion, and why we should pay attention to risks and threats.

"Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum."

https://riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Ostrich-Paradox-issue-brief.pdf

 

[Jay Walk]

Buying lots of stuff now that I am going to use in the future anyways is puzzling to some of you?

How is this hard?

 

[Xaevian]

Y2K is a different category altogether. That was humans riding to their own rescue. Also known as a man made disaster. The progressive radicals fall into this trap time and time again.

There is a world of difference between, "no one could possibly see this coming" and "someone really should have thought this through a little further". One is understandable and the other is darn near unforgivable. Unfortunately, shortsightedness is not our best feature, but we all suffer from it to a degree. We can't predict and plan for everything.

And just to be clear, this is not to disparage preppers. The wiki article, on the other hand, is definitely suspect and is what I am targeting.

 

[The Heretic]

Buying lots of stuff now that I am going to use in the future anyways is puzzling to some of you?

How is this hard?

I have maybe ~$100K invested in guns/ammo/etc., that I hope not to use - maybe 80% of that is not really necessary unless SHTF. Yes, I get some recreational use from it, but not much as I just don't shoot that much anymore (and yes, I should, but I don't).

OTOH, yeah, I would say 90% of my preps (cost wise) I will probably use in the future, or I am using them now, or have in the past. I put them in three categories;

1) Things like food/etc., that I use day to day, but have stocked up such that I have enough if I suddenly can't get them for a while.

2) Finances. I paid off all my debt (except mortgage), and set aside savings. Had I not done that, I could have been like most people; heavily in debt, no savings and making payments on stuff instead of paying the cash price. In which case I would have been in trouble almost every year, because stuff happens and that stuff usually costs money. Cars break & need maintenance, people get sick/injured or need dental work, people get laid off, roof repairs need to be done, appliances stop working and need repair/replacement and so on.

Excellent case of "preparedness paradox"; because I prepared for the events financially, these things were not an emergency, just an anticipated event that happened at some unanticipated time.

3) Land/housing/etc. - a major cost in time and money and yes, a prep. If SHTF I will be better off here than if I lived in the city. So will my kids.

 

[Jay Walk]

I have maybe ~$100K invested in guns/ammo/etc., that I hope not to use - maybe 80% of that is not really necessary unless SHTF. Yes, I get some recreational use from it, but not much as I just don't shoot that much anymore (and yes, I should, but I don't).

OTOH, yeah, I would say 90% of my preps (cost wise) I will probably use in the future, or I am using them now, or have in the past. I put them in three categories;

1) Things like food/etc., that I use day to day, but have stocked up such that I have enough if I suddenly can't get them for a while.

2) Finances. I paid off all my debt (except mortgage), and set aside savings. Had I not done that, I could have been like most people; heavily in debt, no savings and making payments on stuff instead of paying the cash price. In which case I would have been in trouble almost every year, because stuff happens and that stuff usually costs money. Cars break & need maintenance, people get sick/injured or need dental work, people get laid off, roof repairs need to be done, appliances stop working and need repair/replacement and so on.

Excellent case of "preparedness paradox"; because I prepared for the events financially, these things were not an emergency, just an anticipated event that happened at some unanticipated time.

3) Land/housing/etc. - a major cost in time and money and yes, a prep. If SHTF I will be better off here than if I lived in the city. So will my kids.

Yep, People need to get rid of the consumer debt, I played that game but now have just a $726 house payment that we are paying $5726 towards monthly. Should be over in ten more months.

I heard a guy just today talking about how he was financing a new truck into a thirty year mortgage.
Crazy how much he will regret that one in the future.

 

[Xaevian]

Excellent case of "preparedness paradox"; because I prepared for the events financially, these things were not an emergency, just an anticipated event that happened at some unanticipated time.

No, my friend. "Preparedness paradox" is the actual paradox. It was coined to make those that prepare look like an idiot no matter the outcome. You are no idiot.

 

[Longwalkhome]

There is natural disasters and man made ones, you can't stop either but both require a different preparation for when they hit. Right now man made disaster is running the strongest it has for decades, politicians are real creators when it comes to disasters.

 

[The Heretic]

I don't think man made vs natural disasters/situations really matter all that much.

You can still anticipate a natural disaster, like a flood, wind storm or drought, and prepare for them.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I don't think man made vs natural disasters/situations really matter all that much.

You can still anticipate a natural disaster, like a flood, wind storm or drought, and prepare for them.

Just a point of view and you may not share it.

Disasters from nature don't normally take a gun to live through.

Governments declaring war on citizens does require different preps and practices.

Nature strikes and you go on to rebuild.

Pain from politicians can go on for decades and decades.