National Pistol Brace rule Dropped!

[CamoDeafie]

They also want to think there's only 3-7 millions braces in circulation, when it's actually 10-40 million.

The problem with that large of a number is that it far outnumbers the number of "modern sporting rifles " (both AR and AK types) estimated to have been manufactured and imported into the US from 1990-2020 according to NSSF...

Commonly Owned: NSSF Announces Over 24 Million MSRs in Circulation

NSSF updated the industry estimate of Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) in circulation in the United States to 24,446,000 since 1990.

www.nssf.org

So, saying there's up to 40 million "pistol braces" would seem to indicate a far larger number of AR and AK patterned pistols than rifles?

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

The problem with that large of a number is that it far outnumbers the number of "modern sporting rifles " (both AR and AK types) estimated to have been manufactured and imported into the US from 1990-2020 according to NSSF...

Commonly Owned: NSSF Announces Over 24 Million MSRs in Circulation

NSSF updated the industry estimate of Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) in circulation in the United States to 24,446,000 since 1990.

www.nssf.org

So, saying there's up to 40 million "pistol braces" would seem to indicate a far larger number of AR and AK patterned pistols than rifles?

Sounds like those numbers are factory built "rifles" and do not include receivers or 80% builds

 

[Yarome]

Sounds like those numbers are factory built "rifles" and do not include receivers or 80% builds

...or... non AR/AK platformed firearms.

Come to think of it... how does the number of AR/AK rifles relate to how many pistols there are? It would seem the best way to estimate how many braced pistols would be to estimate the total number of braces sold in the U.S... + the total number of preconfigured braced pistols sold (which doesn't include any "rifles") is maybe where they come up with those higher numbers?

 

[CamoDeafie]

If the number of braces are higher than the number of legally owned AR/AK rifles on the books (manufacturers and importer records), then it stands to reason that "SBRs" are very much protected 2A arms being in common ownership for lawful purposes; citing both Heller and Caetano (even if the latter is only an "opinion" that accompanied the vacate and remand order to which Massachusetts dropped all charges thereby seemingly killing the case); that braced firearms as a category, and by logic (right... again... logic, schmogic! Says the DOJ ) , the majority of NFA would be struck down right then and there if the Caetano "threshold" of 200,000 is what it takes to make something "commonly possessed for lawful purposes" with 2.1 million registered silencers, 630,000+ registered SBRs, 3-7 million "unregistered SBRs", remainder of braces and braced firearms being potentially "unregistered SBS and AOWs" , over 640,000 registered MGs (although only roughly 180,000 are "transferable" post 1986) .... and with Heller stating "arms in common use are under 2A and arms not invented at time of writing of 2A are also protected".... we'll see how the lawsuits go. The only portions of NFA that could likely stay intact would be possibly MGs, AOWs, and the Destructive Devices.

 

[Yarome]

If the number of braces are higher than the number of legally owned AR/AK rifles on the books (manufacturers and importer records), then it stands to reason that "SBRs" are very much protected 2A arms being in common ownership for lawful purposes; citing both Heller and Caetano (even if the latter is only an "opinion" that accompanied the vacate and remand order to which Massachusetts dropped all charges thereby seemingly killing the case); that braced firearms as a category, and by logic (right... again... logic, schmogic! Says the DOJ ) , the majority of NFA would be struck down right then and there if the Caetano "threshold" of 200,000 is what it takes to make something "commonly possessed for lawful purposes" with 2.1 million registered silencers, 630,000+ registered SBRs, 3-7 million "unregistered SBRs", remainder of braces and braced firearms being potentially "unregistered SBS and AOWs" , over 640,000 registered MGs (although only roughly 180,000 are "transferable" post 1986) .... and with Heller stating "arms in common use are under 2A and arms not invented at time of writing of 2A are also protected".... we'll see how the lawsuits go. The only portions of NFA that could likely stay intact would be possibly MGs, AOWs, and the Destructive Devices.

Was there some kind of question about if braced pistols where possibly considered to not be "in common use"?

 

[CamoDeafie]

Was there some kind of question about if braced pistols where possibly considered to not be "in common use"?

ATF says in their preamble that Heller doesn't cover "Dangerous and Unusual weapons" and that the NFA 1934 covers "Dangerous and Unusual weapons"; therefore the DOJ is saying that braced pistols as "SBRs" are "dangerous and unusual weapons "

 

[sobo]

ATF says in their preamble that Heller doesn't cover "Dangerous and Unusual weapons" and that the NFA 1934 covers "Dangerous and Unusual weapons"; therefore the DOJ is saying that braced pistols as "SBRs" are "dangerous and unusual weapons "

The AFT and the DOJ can't even figure out WTH they're saying. They walk around with their...

 

[Yarome]

ATF says in their preamble that Heller doesn't cover "Dangerous and Unusual weapons" and that the NFA 1934 covers "Dangerous and Unusual weapons"; therefore the DOJ is saying that braced pistols as "SBRs" are "dangerous and unusual weapons "

They also say that bump stocks meet the definition of a MG. What's your point?

 

[CamoDeafie]

They also say that bump stocks meet the definition of a MG. What's your point?
View attachment 1357073

Again, lawsuits and we all know just how eager one particular member is to promote compliance and deny that "common use" is a doctrine but yes again, lawsuits. We'll see how things go.

 

[Flymph]

Don't pee into the wind and expect not to get wet!

 

[ilikegunspdx]

More info on the first of the 2 lawsuits filed so far. Some good arguments in there. Due to where this is filed it may well succeed IMO.

 

[CamoDeafie]

More info on the first of the 2 lawsuits filed so far. Some good arguments in there. Due to where this is filed it may well succeed IMO.

All they gotta do is cite Caetano's threshold of 200,000+ = commonly possessed for lawful purposes and not "Dangerous and Unusual" weapons and bam most of NFA could get turned over..

Edit. If the District Courts judges could use Caetano and Heller both together, then the only argument the DOJ has for SBRs to stay in NFA would be that somehow over 7 million at their estimates would be that the NFA somehow does not cover "Dangerous and Unusual" weapons

 

[ilikegunspdx]

All they gotta do is cite Caetano's threshold of 200,000+ = commonly possessed for lawful purposes and not "Dangerous and Unusual" weapons and bam most of NFA could get turned over..

Edit. If the District Courts judges could use Caetano and Heller both together, then the only argument the DOJ has for SBRs to stay in NFA would be that somehow over 7 million at their estimates would be that the NFA somehow does not cover "Dangerous and Unusual" weapons

Yea without getting to far off into the weeds seems to me it's impossible to say they are unusual. As to dangerous the arbitrary 16" thing comes into play (to my way of thinking) that a 14.5" barrel (f.e.) they say is somehow more dangerous than a 16" barrel. If they say it's because it can be concealed then pistols should be way more dangerous than 14.5" barrels.

So all that brings us back to the original 1934 mistake of Congress leaving the sbs and sbr in there when it was originally meant to be a way to protect hunters when there was a proposed ban on all handguns (that was removed but 16" fired from
Shoulder left in). Imo pretty much anything to do with stocks, barrel lengths, sbs, sbr, aow, etc all stems from this initial mistake and atf has been using it as a way to justify their existence and now increase in power over American citizens at the behest of the current president. They also keep trying to pigeon hole modern firearms into that old mistake. It's a fools errand as it has nothing to do with safety, and everything to do with $ (I mean federal funding not stamp $) and power for the atf.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Yea without getting to far off into the weeds seems to me it's impossible to say they are unusual. As to dangerous the arbitrary 16" thing comes into play (to my way of thinking) that a 14.5" barrel (f.e.) they say is somehow more dangerous than a 16" barrel. If they say it's because it can be concealed then pistols should be way more dangerous than 14.5" barrels.

Indeed.

If AR15 handguns (with or without braces) are protected per Heller (semiautomatic handguns are 2A covered);

and rifles of all kinds (16"+) are also protected by 2A .. then that position between a handgun and a 16" rifle should also be 2A protected

please note, that certain politicians are already saying that semiautomatic rifles are not 2A protected

So all that brings us back to the original 1934 mistake of Congress leaving the sbs and sbr in there when it was originally meant to be a way to protect hunters when there was a proposed ban on all handguns (that was removed but 16" fired from
Shoulder left in). Imo pretty much anything to do with stocks, barrel lengths, sbs, sbr, aow, etc all stems from this initial mistake and atf has been using it as a way to justify their existence and now increase in power over American citizens at the behest of the current president. They also keep trying to pigeon hole modern firearms into that old mistake. It's a fools errand as it has nothing to do with safety, and everything to do with $ (I mean federal funding not stamp $) and power for the atf.

Yup.


Edit.

By the DOJ's own numbers, there's no way in heck that 7+ million "unregistered SBRs" are "dangerous and unusual" when Caetano Opinion from Alito with Thomas concurring says 200,000+ is not [/I]dangerous and unusual

Especially when NSSF says from 1990 to 2020 that there were 24 million "Modern Sporting Rifles" (ARs and AKs and similar) manufactured or imported into the US. When there's almost a third that number being "unregistered SBRs"....

 

[Yarome]

By the DOJ's own numbers, there's no way in heck that 7+ million "unregistered SBRs" are "dangerous and unusual" when Caetano Opinion from Alito with Thomas concurring says 200,000+ is not [/I]dangerous and unusual

Especially when NSSF says from 1990 to 2020 that there were 24 million "Modern Sporting Rifles" (ARs and AKs and similar) manufactured or imported into the US. When there's almost a third that number being "unregistered SBRs"....

Well.. using their numbers... 24mil rifles PLUS 7mil pistols. Those 7mil "pistols" are unrelated to the 24mil "rifles". Regardless... either of which are in common use by any definition.

 

[CamoDeafie]

Well.. using their numbers... 24mil rifles PLUS 7mil pistols. Those 7mil "pistols" are unrelated to the 24mil "rifles". Regardless... either of which are in common use by any definition.

Right, so 31 million or so, just about a quarter of those being ""unregistered SBRs"" but still, not "unusual" when there's under 200,000 transferable MGs in circulation

On the other hand.. 72 million handguns officially recognized as such... almost a tenth of that being potentially ""SBRs"", to maybe half if "40 million braces braces have been sold" again... certainly not unusual

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Right, so 31 million or so, just about a quarter of those being ""unregistered SBRs"" but still, not "unusual" when there's under 200,000 transferable MGs in circulation

On the other hand.. 72 million handguns officially recognized as such... almost a tenth of that being potentially ""SBRs"", to maybe half if "40 million braces braces have been sold" again... certainly not unusual

And 200,000 stun guns in caetano = common use. 3 million braced guns out there by ATF's estimates.

 

[CamoDeafie]

And 200,000 stun guns in caetano = common use. 3 million braced guns out there by ATF's estimates.

3-7 with other people estimating 10-40 million braces having been sold/made/out there.

DOJ notably did not cite Caetano or make any note relating to it.. because like I've found, that case was vacated, and remanded then Massachusetts dropped all charges rendering it relatively moot but with Alito's opinion and Thomas concurring.. it is likely that Thomas will revisit that case notes and opinion and use it to strike down a lot of the NFA provisions while maybe keeping the Machine Guns, AOWs, Destructive Devices alone.. depending on the DOJ's arguments and depending on if he uses the 200,000=commonly owned for lawful use that Alito used.

Edit the DOJ could simply say if the numbers are under 5-10% of the total number of firearms (estimated at 393 million) in the US, it makes them unusual

 

[wired]

The problem with that large of a number is that it far outnumbers the number of "modern sporting rifles " (both AR and AK types) estimated to have been manufactured and imported into the US from 1990-2020 according to NSSF...

Commonly Owned: NSSF Announces Over 24 Million MSRs in Circulation

NSSF updated the industry estimate of Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) in circulation in the United States to 24,446,000 since 1990.

www.nssf.org

So, saying there's up to 40 million "pistol braces" would seem to indicate a far larger number of AR and AK patterned pistols than rifles?

ATF says 3-7 million. Mybe up to 10 Thats MUCH more reasonable. Ive seen a few in stores and sometimes at the range. 40 million is pure fantasy. 1 in 10 guns in the US as braced pistols? No way.

 

[The Heretic]

40 million is pure fantasy. 1 in 10 guns in the US as braced pistols? No way.

I don't know. Braced ARs are very popular.