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Too true this. I recall playing love note tennis with a State Rep ( still in office ) during the 2015 gun bill campaign that Kate signed. A favorite strategy of theirs is to quote unnamed "Law Enforcement".
I fired off a response to him saying "Who do you think you kidding" The anonymous "LE" sources you mention are obviously your own Chief / administration level wonks, who will say whatever you want them to. They have future advancement and budget carrots to keep in mind. Name REAL LE personally doing the real job, not your trained parrots.
No more responses.
Funny you bring that up,

I think it was Giffords or one of those others not long ago was saying on Twitter they were taking a tour bus thru Florida (of all states) saying they have tons of "pro gun" people supporting control measures but never once showed a photo of anyone anywhere. Just close ups of the tour bus itself with slogans on it.

Here is another claim they had late sept but with 0 photographic evidence:
 
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I get the sneaking suspicion that Drazan only has a lead simply because Betsy is pulling disgruntled D voters from Kotek.
I wonder how many remain loyal when they hand in their ballots up until the 8th before they default to "blue no matter who".

That is where we really need a poll on a larger sample size, how many will ride or die with Betsy vs how many chickens out and go back.
 
the other thing I notice is the poll I posted the other day from the Oregonian and the one shared here today on people likely to support the measure is a sample size of 600.

Oregon has 36 counties sample size is 600 so that is 16.66 per county
Oregon total population (2020) is 4.176mil so about 0.014% of Oregon population would vote yes on 114

Same goes for the prior reports these are really really small sample sizes and its midterms.
Side note: survey sample size calculation is well known, and valid numbers are surprisingly smaller than one might think. See for example, https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size/ For over a million, a 5% confidence interval sample size is 384. (Take a really elementary probability and statistics course; I retook one a few years ago where the prof spent 5 of the 10 weeks proving the arithmetic works. Yes, it was slow, but it takes a lot of convincing to overcome what seems obvious but is actually wrong.)

Lots of other problems are possible; and of course, when an election is involved, the only survey that matters is the final vote.
 
I get the sneaking suspicion that Drazan only has a lead simply because Betsy is pulling disgruntled D voters from Kotek.
I completely agree. It's a unique and favorable condition that could very well have the potential to flip our color... at least in part... but it would make me happy to no end if it flows her way.
 
I'm not a repub, but I will say that CD seems to be the only one with an actual plan for the state.
unless betsy comes up with some very strong ideas i agree with i think im going Drazen. Besty is ok, but i feel in the back of my head the Left knew they had no viable candidate, so they did next best thing... let their pain in the bubblegum centrist Dem run independent, she can split the Repub. vote and its a win win. they either get hard core left Kotex or lifetime Dem who served 20 years in senate and house that got us in this mess.
 
The polls do not look good

Like all of "the media," that is gamed too!

Rec'd an analysis from OFF that said in part:

It's safe to say that the poll is as slanted as the article was and even with grossly biased polls, massive spending, and endless deception by the media, there is not overwhelming support for the measure. And with a margin of error of 4%, it looks even worse for the extremists who are attempting to destroy civil rights.
URL = https://www.oregonfirearms.org/the-media-is-lying-and-losing
 
Like all of "the media," that is gamed too!
So, let's start emailing the reporters.

Another ETA: I am a strong proponent of courteous communications, and I encourage those to everyone. I realize that is not some folks' 'style', but in my experience it seems to work better for my purposes. Water dripping on the stone, not explosives.​

Not that I expect those folks 'in the bubble' to actually change, but perhaps we can pierce the bubble.

I just emailed Ms Slovic, author of the survey article.

Ms Slovic,

A couple nits for you:

You write

Opponents call the measure an overreach that doesn't guarantee adequate funding from permit fees to pay for the required classes and the database, among other objections

That conflates three different issues.

1) Permit fees are for background checks for the individual applicants.
2) The database cost is an unfunded mandate laid on OSP
3) The classes are a second unfunded mandate laid on the police/sheriffs, which ultimately will be covered by a separate charge to the permit applicants.

You might be interested in reviewing the estimated costs, as posted on the Secretary of State's website, https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/fec/IP-17-2022-FEC-analysis-draft-updated-for-8-5.pdf

Since nearly half of new gun buyers these days are women, and quite a large number are BIPOC, is it politically wise to impose all these extra fees and requirements on them? Doesn't seem in tune with the times.
Thanks to Kevin's OFF email for the highlight.

ETA She responded already; nothing substantive, just promised/threatened to write more for next week.
 
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NRA came to life today regarding this initiative:

With Ballot Measure 114 being voted on in the 2022 election, we NEED you to make sure it doesn't pass. Join your NRA-ILA Oregon team for an important NRA Town Hall Meeting on October 13th, at the Tuality Masonic Lodge, in Hillsboro.

We will be providing critical election updates on how we are fighting this egregious gun control initiative, along with more information on NRA's efforts in Oregon, and details on how you can help us protect and promote the Second Amendment.

Let us know you're coming by clicking below.



When
October 13, 2022
6:30pm - 8pm
Where
Tuality Masonic Lodge
176 NE 2nd Ave
Hillsboro, OR 97124​

If you can't make it to this event but want to join the NRA-ILA team on other opportunities to defend the Second Amendment, please contact me at [email protected] or(703)-708-4487.


In Liberty,

Jesse Greening
Oregon Grassroots Field Coordinator
NRA-ILA Grassroots Programs and Campaign Field Operations
703-708-4487 | [email protected]
http://www.nrailafrontlines.com/
 
Not to beat a dead horse, but with confidence so low in our leaders it's astounding that people are still buying their rhetoric and continuing down the same path that got us to where we are today. At what point do people take a breath and realize, "Wait a sec.... this isn't working at ALL."(?)
Do you remember being in middle school and high school, where "Everyone knows …" the right jeans, the right music, who is in, who is out? That did not stop when we got older. People assume all kinds of facts not in evidence, especially things repeated often with emotion and "popular people" doing the talking. Adults are better at peer pressure than children because they are more powerful.
 
No clue on costs or how you even go about getting TV time but,


Got this off a google search and it says between $1500-3500
 
No clue on costs or how you even go about getting TV time but,


Got this off a google search and it says between $1500-3500
I found that one too. Is for ad production. Kevin linked to a couple that have already been produced. A vet doing private security in PDX area. Wonder how much would cost to run them around the state
 
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