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This guy is floating the D word






Not related but not wanting to have another post ---
there is stuff on the interwebs about trading platforms ( web based and otherwise ) crashing / being down
keeping those who closely monitor markets out of being able to transact in real-time. Very frustrating.

I am a buy and hold guy, so it has not impacted my day to day.
 
I still have problems trying to understand the relationship of 'yield' and price of bonds, including maturity, etc. - there seems to be too many variables.

In Dec 2019, I switched my IRA to 60/40 Bonds/Stocks, my Roth to 80/20 Bonds/Stocks, and my 401k somewhere in between the two.

When my portfolio took a dive in Feb/Mar, I talked to my financial advisor and he said both bonds and stocks took a hit because a lot of investors went to cash, so they were selling both, driving the prices and valuations down in both. That kind of made sense.

As I watched my accounts try to return to their previous values, I would get confused day to day when the estimated account values kind followed the stock market some days, and others they did not.

Also not helping was that IRA accounts were set to automatically rebalance; i.e., to keep the amount of dollar valuations at the 60/40 and 80/20 percentages - so sometimes when the stock market went up, the accounts sold the stock and put it into bonds, and vice versa?
 

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This guy is floating the D word






Not related but not wanting to have another post ---
there is stuff on the interwebs about trading platforms ( web based and otherwise ) crashing / being down
keeping those who closely monitor markets out of being able to transact in real-time. Very frustrating.

I am a buy and hold guy, so it has not impacted my day to day.
Just remember when the government debased the currency to a fiat system .Thank tricky dick and the oberfurher Kissenger.
 

"As hopes of a V-shape recovery begin to fade, many are now wondering, will these layoffs be permanent?" asks Forbes Contributor, Renee Morad. "A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) estimates that 42% of corona virus-related layoffs will become permanent job losses."
 
Generally (over the years) fall is the ending of a bull market. Winter the market goes down and it is often a good time to buy stocks.

Combine those trends with the realization that the economic recovery not only is slowing and doing poorly, but that 10%+ of the population remains unemployed, that that rate will probably go back up, that some significant percentage of those unemployed are not temporarily unemployed (they won't have a job to go back to - those jobs are gone), that many businesses have closed permanently, that bankruptcies of both businesses and consumers will go up significantly, that people won't be able to make rent/mortgage payments, that consumer spending is down and going down further, that income is down (maybe going down further - certainly after the unemployment benefits run out completely at the end of the year), that we are in a greatest recession in decades - when all this is realized by the populace and investors and the markets - wham, we got more than a "correction", we've got a "crash".

Sorry for the run on sentence. But think about it.
 
@ Heretic All the reasons you stated, although I think it will be more of a buying opportunity correction rather than going into a recession. I actually believe, once a COVID vaccine is out, the economy and jobs picture will slowly improve and 2021 will be a positive year for equities. On any coming dip this fall, I think there will be a lot of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) cash going back in from many that missed this last sharp V shaped drop and current run up. I've got a few dollars waiting.
 
@ Heretic All the reasons you stated, although I think it will be more of a buying opportunity correction rather than going into a recession. I actually believe, once a COVID vaccine is out, the economy and jobs picture will slowly improve and 2021 will be a positive year for equities. On any coming dip this fall, I think there will be a lot of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) cash going back in from many that missed this last sharp V shaped drop and current run up. I've got a few dollars waiting.
Yeah, the Pandemic caught me by surprise so I wasn't truly prepared for that - I had gone mostly to bonds last December but everybody went to cash in Feb/Mar including the bond market, so I lost value, just not as much as if I was more into stocks, then because of the Fed, stocks came back, but not bonds (as much).

We shall see about a recession. We are in one now. If it corrects quickly or not is the question. But that is not the primary reason I went to cash - I wanted to hold cash to be ready to just in and buy the dip.
 
If you are not retiring soon, Stop trying to time the market.

You can't. You are not as fast as a super computer, you do not have access to information a select few do, and by trying to time the market, you will drastically reduce your net value when it does come time to retire.

Simple cost allocation and dollar cost averaging are the name of the game. Fear mongers are out there to make money off your fear and inexperience.

When stocks are cheap , your $ buys more shares. When Stocks are expensive, you buy less shares. As long as you are well diversified you are as insulated as you can be. Don't mess with options, don't mess with derivatives and don't touch your retirement until you retire. If you are going to buy PM's only buy physical. Paper is worthless.

Bonds are a bigger gamble than most equities outside of federal treasuries.

We live in bazzaro world and traditional investing has been dead for over 20 years. They game has changed.

Max your 401K, taking advantage of employer contributions
Max an IRA

Do this for 30 years and you will retire with many millions of dollars.
 
Yeah, the Pandemic caught me by surprise so I wasn't truly prepared for that - I had gone mostly to bonds last December but everybody went to cash in Feb/Mar including the bond market, so I lost value, just not as much as if I was more into stocks, then because of the Fed, stocks came back, but not bonds (as much).

We shall see about a recession. We are in one now. If it corrects quickly or not is the question. But that is not the primary reason I went to cash - I wanted to hold cash to be ready to just in and buy the dip.
Trump is going to get reelected. The Market will shoot up once he does and once he is free to make heads roll, this covid bubblegum will end and the economy will come roaring back. Money is being printed fast which = inflation = stock market rising.

You are going to miss alot of gains in the meantime. In fact every second you are in cash, it devalues.

Had you left your money in the market you would be at an all time high right now.
 

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