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I don't know anything. And I'm not making any predictions.
But it looks to me that some confuse the stock market with the economy.
I'm pretty sure it's not.

It looks to be a very inconsistent gauge. One that really only reflects peoples feelings about making money investing.
And at any given moment a tweet here. Maybe talk of Brexit or some trade deal over there. Has it pointing almost instantly in another direction.

As to Full employment being this great indicator of the economy's health?
Well I think if your at full employment and can't stimulate the economy to grow?

Then it's tapped out.

And the reality is its probably more an indicator of a problem than a positive signal.




Yep. No predictions here.
But I will offer up this bit of history.


The markets were at all time highs. And unemployment was around 1% the summer of 1929.
 
You are right, the market isn't the economy and the economy isn't the market.

That said, a LOT of people, especially those of us near retirement, have a significant amount of money in the market, and we are right to be concerned about what the market will do if the economy goes into a recession. Every time we have had a recession since I had started putting money into the market, *on paper* I have lost 40-50% of the value my investments. It came back - eventually - but this time around I would prefer to not wait 5-10 years for that value to return, much less for the value to make up for those lost years of returns.

OTOH, this time around, I am not worried about *my* job. I would prefer to leave my employment on my own terms and timeline - and I probably will. At the same time, one can never be sure about such things - not even in the public sector (even the military has had unanticipated reductions). Also, I have a family member who just lost their job after working for the same org for almost 20 years - for that person I am concerned.

Statistics are fine in looking at a situation in general, but there are always people who are an exception to stats, and there are also always winners and losers. The fact that there is a tight employment market is good, but that doesn't guarantee anyone employment, it just increases their chances. With many orgs looking at the possibility of a recession, hiring freezes or at least reluctance to add new hires is becoming a real possibility.

I've seen such situations turn upside down seemingly overnight. One should be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.
 
The stock market is an absolutely great indicator of the economic health. The stock market is a large part of the economy. Yes one day up one day down but it largely drives the economy. It is the largest indicator. Most people have their retirement and most of the money they have in it with the lone exception of the house they live in. If you dont have money its awfully hard to invest into. If companies don't get investments by selling stock its almost impossible for them to grow. If they don't grow they don't hire people to invest into the 401k ect that grows the stock market.
 
The stock market is an absolutely great indicator of the economic health. The stock market is a large part of the economy. Yes one day up one day down but it largely drives the economy. It is the largest indicator. Most people have their retirement and most of the money they have in it with the lone exception of the house they live in. If you dont have money its awfully hard to invest into. If companies don't get investments by selling stock its almost impossible for them to grow. If they don't grow they don't hire people to invest into the 401k ect that grows the stock market.



I here you. Its a part of the economy.
But not ''The'' economy. And it's a pip-sqeek compared to the Bond Market.

As to being a ''absolute great indicator of the economic health''?


Explain how it got things so wrong and failed to indicate the Great Depression? And later the Great recession.
 
Ummm the "crash" was in 1929. It was not an indicator as much as it was the cause of the great depression that lasted well into the 30's. The crash in 2008 was caused by the housing bubble and snowballed into the great recession. So I would say a pretty good indicator.
 
Yesterday we had occasion to enjoy the fruits of frugality. The TV had developed a dark band that obscured the top 1/3 of the picture, which made watching it annoying - Time for a new one.
Long story short, my frugal wife had a bunch of relevant discount coupons AND we got a big discount on gas. All this made the TV we really liked a screamin' deal which we could take advantage of and pay cash. (I still gaze at it in awe. TVs didn't used to be that big. Also, I was amazed at how cheap ordinary sized flat screens have become.)
Remember folks - when you buy something like a big flat screen TV don't put the packaging out for all to see on garbage day. There are those who take note of such and drop by later when you aren't home.
 
Deutsche Bank, Economic Collapse - Deutsche Bank has been losing money at a pace that is absolutely staggering, nearly 4 billion euros for the second and third quarter of 2019 together. Deutsche Bank has been laying off thousands of workers all over the world. Just like we witnessed with Lehman Brothers, there is always an effort to maintain the charade until the very last minute. There have been so many bad decisions, so many aggressive bets have gone bad, and there has been one scandal after another. Deutsche Bank is the largest domino in Europe's very shaky financial system. When it fully collapses, it will set off a chain reaction that nobody is going to be able to stop, global financial chaos will certainly follow.

 
South Dakota Trusts.




Wismer is the only person I met in South Dakota who seemed to understand this. "Ever since I've been in the legislature, the trust taskforce has come to us with an updating bill, every year or every other year, and we just let it pass because none of us know what it is. They're monster bills. As Democrats, we're such a small caucus, we're the ones who ought to be the natural opponents of this, but we don't have the technical expertise and don't really even understand what we're doing," she confessed, while we ate pancakes and drank coffee in a truck stop outside Sioux Falls. "We don't have a clue what the consequences are to just regular people from what we're doing."
 
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"Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
I have so many bad economic numbers to share with you that I don't even know where to start. I had anticipated that the U.S. economic slowdown would accelerate during the fourth quarter of 2019, and that is precisely what has happened. The Federal Reserve is trying to do all that it can to keep us from officially slipping into a recession, and the federal government is literally spending money as if tomorrow will never come, but all of that intervention has not been enough to reverse our economic momentum. We are really starting to see conditions begin to deteriorate very rapidly now, and 2020 is already shaping up to be the most pivotal year for the U.S. economy since 2008. "

"What is coming is going to make 2008 look like a Sunday picnic, and our society is completely and utterly unprepared for what is about to happen. "

----


Here's The Simple Reason Why A Global Economic Recovery Is Not Coming

Peter Schiff: "Day Of Reckoning Is Going To Happen A Lot Sooner Than Powell Thinks"

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I'd take Zero Hedge with a rather large grain of salt, considering their track record. They are known doom-meisters and conspiracy theorists. (As RationalWiki put it "accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions".)

That said, they could have nailed it with this one. (shrug)
 
Martin Armstrong explains the repo crisis centered on Deutsche Bank
art-link-symbol-tiny-grey-arrow-only-rev01.gif The crisis in liquidity is that American bankers will NOT lend to Europe. Because of the European Banking Crisis, banks just do not trust banks. Nobody knows who will be standing after a failure at Deutsche Bank. The Fed has had to step in to be the neutral lender NOT because of a crisis in the USA, but because of the collapse in confidence in Europe's banking system as a whole. Stay alert – this is just getting started.
 

"Depression, Straight Line Logic - Debt is any enemy of government's perfect ally. The consequences of debt, required repayment of principal, and compounding interest are inexorable, forestalled by central bank and government machinations but never prevented. When the reckoning arrives, governments will find they no longer have the means to wage war or control their populations. The Greater Depression will hit an inflection point and its pace will dramatically quicken. Default, bankruptcy, and deflation will be the order of the day and much of what the world now considers wealth will simply evaporate. Titanic forces are at work, earthshaking changes are coming. Real power, the power to create, invent, build, and produce—the power of the mind—awaits its full liberation."




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added graph from different source
world-debt-2019.png
 
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Admittedly somewhat darkly, I have been thinking this would be a good time to buy up some farmland, considering all the foreclosures. There is nothing like owning chunks of land; at least from my perspective.
 
US consumer debt is almost as much as government held debt, but there are important differences.

Government can make more money and take on more debt. Individuals who cannot make more money and many cannot take on more debt.

Individuals can default, generally national governments do not.
 

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