Occupation growth and decline

[CountryGent]

can't comment here for once, I quit flying about 1994, so I've missed the fun & games since.

You ain't missing much. I hate to fly. Not the actual flight, of course, but all the horsecrap surrounding said. Fortunately, in my line work, I can do most things via the Intratubes and it no longer requires me being physically there.

 

[gmerkt]

Re. the basic thrust of this thread. I'm way out of the labor market and I'm glad of it. So much has changed in my lifetime. When I was a young buck in my 20's, you could pick up a newspaper and there were loads of jobs for the having. If you showed up for an interview with a pulse and a clean shirt, you could get hired. You actually got to see the person in the interview who did the hiring. My son is 40, has a solid work history, good education including an MBA, is in management. He tells me stories of recent interview experiences. The process these days is typically long, winding, multi-level, with lots of weird features such as peer discussions, etc. I guess for one thing, employers have to be double certain of whom they hire because once hired, there are a million ways employees can sue if they subsequently get let go. Meaning, sometimes employers have to keep duds on the payroll simply because the bad pick has angles they can work in a lawsuit. Particularly if they are female or minority. However unjustified, that's always something that can be leaned on.

Re. the kind and amount of work available. Constantly dwindling, for the most part. Lots of jobs have been moved offshore or replaced by robots. It's all about the bottom line, so firms want to eliminate as much labor as they can. Way back in "Popular Science" days (which has been discussed here), long before consumers had access to computers, they were heralded as the salvation of mankind. Computers were going to make everything easier for us. And to some large extent, this has been true for many. But the downside is, they've eliminated a lot of jobs. Robots and automation are an extension of this capability. So the end result is, ease for some but un- or underemployment for many. Which makes life harder, not easier.

One thing sticks out in my mind from a recent experience. Watching tree fruit being harvested. They don't need many tree pickers anymore. The orchard farmers have machines that violently shake the trees and get 90% of what they want. A big automatic screen deploys under the tree foliage to catch the pickings. There's also a robotic apple picking machine that vacuums the fruit off the tree. It "sees" the fruit and guides the suction nozzle right to it. Who knew human fruit pickers would become obsolete?

The move into artificial intelligence is scary. This will cause way more human obsolescence.

Restaurant trade. I guess there will always be some demand for this. BUT: Many are disappearing. The land they sit on is getting too valuable to take up with a restaurant. The property owners can make tons more money selling the land than renting it to a restaurant operator.

 

[41mag]

what can you get for $15 or $20

I lost track "Wanda", an old high school class mate.....don't know whether her union has kept up with inflation though.....actually I ~was~ thinking of various old class mates and recalled an odd meeting once late in the evening at a restaurant....where she acted rather pleased to see me & was emphasizing in a very odd way how much she needed $20 right away.....hinting rather broadly at how much she would appreciate "$20".....I hadn't quite fallen off the potato truck yet & missed what she actually meant.....

 

[gmerkt]

I hate to fly. Not the actual flight, of course, but all the horsecrap surrounding said.

It's not impossible to spend more ground time dedicated to a flight (on both ends) than the time the actual flight takes. Distance being considered, that is. SEA to PDX, for example. Or to drive that distance in the total time involved in a flight.

 

[CountryGent]

It's not impossible to spend more ground time dedicated to a flight (on both ends) than the time the actual flight takes. Distance being considered, that is. SEA to PDX, for example. Or to drive that distance in the total time involved in a flight.

Indeed. God help me, I've even considered Amtrak. My late paternal grandmother (god rest her soul) would rarely fly, but took the train many a time. Many of those she had a faithful grandchild (this guy) waiting to pick her up. I remember the last time I did so for her was in a dumpster part of town in rural Washington. The train was hours late, I got hit up for money from a hobo, ran into a couple Ukrainian girls who were in our congregation, and since I was a deacon, one kept asking me theological questions while the other darkly eyed me, and tried killing the time by reading the Bible because this was pre-smart phone. The disheveled granny was gladdened by her grandchild, I treated her to a nice steak dinner, and drove her home. My father called me later at night and I relayed the information and he said simply "you're a prince." I laughed, and I don't know about that, but I love my family very much. Oh, and leery of the rail system after that.

 

[gmerkt]

I've even considered Amtrak.

Of course the complication and strangling of air transportation is a fairly new phenomenon in my life. Used to be, you could wait until 15 minutes before flight time, park your car on airport property, and spring to the gate at the last minute. Those days are over and never to return.

Rail travel. I've taken Amtrak to Portland from here. Not long after I retired from real work, I had gigs where I would travel to pick up used cars for a broker. They'd pay my travel to wherever the car was and my time to drive it back. It was fun and different for a while. One thing I learned about and didn't like, even with someone else paying for it. Amtrak "dynamic pricing." The fare price would vary depending on demand. In other words, price gouging. Of course airlines do it but we're used to that. Passenger rail service would be dead except the government stepped in for eastern seaboard interests back in 1971. The fact that there are other Amtrak routes outside of the east coast was to make it look legit. Free economics would've killed most passenger rail service in the US but for government intervention. Prog. politicians in CA want to bring it back with their bullet train but that's a gruesome, massively over-priced bad idea.

 

[CoastRange57]

Ever flight I've taken post-9/11 has featured the TSA pulling me aside for extra scrutiny. By every, I mean literally every; no idea why.

Have you bought a gun in the last 5 years?

 

[CountryGent]

Have you bought a gun in the last 5 years?

Buy one almost every month or two. And have a machine-gun waiting for approval.

 

[CoastRange57]

Buy one almost every month or two. And have a machine-gun waiting for approval.

Well there you go. I usually buy one or two a year. Pre 9 /11 and post 9 / 11 I flew for business a lot. 6 to 9 trips a month maybe more. When the background checks started I was not flying as much maybe once or twice a month. But I got hit every time by the TSA when that started. Over the last ten years I only fly once maybe twice a year. But I can get the TSA search and nitrate wipe down EVERY time. Maybe because I usually check a bag and declare a pistol in there, I do not know.

 

[CountryGent]

As of yet, I never flown with a gun. I will when going to AZ in February. I'm seriously considering going by car. Armed, naturally, with a .357 Magnum and a flyswatter. You know, bat country.

 

[zenbreath]

Of course the complication and strangling of air transportation is a fairly new phenomenon in my life. Used to be, you could wait until 15 minutes before flight time, park your car on airport property, and spring to the gate at the last minute. Those days are over and never to return.

Rail travel. I've taken Amtrak to Portland from here. Not long after I retired from real work, I had gigs where I would travel to pick up used cars for a broker. They'd pay my travel to wherever the car was and my time to drive it back. It was fun and different for a while. One thing I learned about and didn't like, even with someone else paying for it. Amtrak "dynamic pricing." The fare price would vary depending on demand. In other words, price gouging. Of course airlines do it but we're used to that. Passenger rail service would be dead except the government stepped in for eastern seaboard interests back in 1971. The fact that there are other Amtrak routes outside of the east coast was to make it look legit. Free economics would've killed most passenger rail service in the US but for government intervention. Prog. politicians in CA want to bring it back with their bullet train but that's a gruesome, massively over-priced bad idea.

Go back and watch the last scene from American Graffiti. Richie Cunningham gets out of the station wagon and walks through the gate (opening in the fence) and climbs the stairway into the plane.

Different world.