Nuclear War? Just another business opportunity in South Korea

[ArgentineSteel]

Here's an article on an entrepreneur who has a product for the times. Fall Out Shelters. Inexpensive, well stocked and comfortably sized.

I found the article interesting just for the Gear shown in their "typical" shelter. Want to know how to get ready? look how this shelter is stocked and you'll have a good starting list for any planned survivor scenario.

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[Pops1911]

I remember when my family built a fall out shelter back in the very early 1960's during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Yeah I'm that old. The folks stocked it with home canned foods, water 'n' lots of TP and a large old 5 transistor radio. The Russians eventually backed down and the shelter became a place where my friends and I would play soldiers. Hated green beans after that for a long time. Funny but I still remember its smell.

 

[DenimChicken]

Interesting how some people go through great lengths to prepare for this, and others don't bother. I have seen numerous times on this forum where people have posted that they didn't want to live through a nuclear war. Not saying anyone is wrong or right, but I wonder how much proximity and perceived reality of the threat drives prepping. Most of the people here are prepping for the big earthquake; I'd be interest to see if South Korea prepares more for nuclear war of earthquake/volcano/natural disaster.

 

[Oathkeeper1775]

Most of the people here are prepping for the big earthquake.....

It comes down to Risk Management; without going through the grueling 4-6 hour process; I'll try to explain how some retired military people or emergency managers may see it.

Probability
Severity
Mitigation

Take Bloodborne Pathogens (HIV) and Other Potentially Infectious Materials (OPIM; like saliva) for my exemplification:

HIV is rare compared to OPIM; so let's give the two hypothetical probabilities:
HIV= +2
OPIM= +8

Now hypothetical Severity
HIV= +10
OPIM= +4

Total HIV = 12, OPIM = 12

Mitigation
Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) -10/-10

Proper Handling of "things" -10/-10

Employee testing. -10/-10

Total after mitigation

HIV = -18 (very safe)
OPIM = -18 (very safe)

Effective employee treatment.
HIV= -2 = -20 risk level
OPIM= -8 or -9 = -26 or -27 risk level.

(Hats off to our medical professionals and First Responders).

Result; since HIV is more difficult to mitigate (compared to OPIM) once a person is infected, but contact with HIV is rare for most people.

OPIM is everywhere, but it can be treated in most cases.

Final Result:
PPE for both is the same...
Handling of both materials is mostly the same...
Employee tests for both are mostly the same...

HIV treatment and success rates differs from OPIM treatment....

Run the same process with earthquake (using OPIM values), and Nuclear (using HIV values).

The Likelyhood of a quake is higher or can be combined with (causes) the nuclear event.

Most geographical locations are recoverable after a quake; not so after a nuclear event.

I doubt this is comprehensive enough to explain my point, but it certainly illustrates how complex risk management is.

Why do this madness? Because Deductive Reasoning (Boolean) is much much more productive than Inductive Reasoning (Emotion).

 

[DenimChicken]

Thanks for the detailed post. I understand risk management pretty well.

I guess what I'm trying to say, how much higher on the probability scale is nuclear war to them, and is it a threat realer than ours, or is it just their proximity to the threat makes it more intense? Do people here not want to live through a nuclear war because it's not as real to them and they are focused on other more likely threats, or are their other factors in play like culture?

 

[19 Adam]

Nice video.

That green septic tank may work out here in the rural area for a short term survival location but I would hate to have to get into it in Seoul at the start of a nuclear attack.

"Seoul, officially known as the Seoul Special City, is the largest metropolis and capital of South Korea. This megacity is the largest city proper in the developed world and the Seoul Capital Area is the second largest metropolitan in the world with more than 25.6 million people, which is half of all the residents in the country. The estimated population within the city limits for 2016 is 10.29 million.

The population of Seoul in 2016 is estimated at 10.29 million, although this is just the population of the Special City, which has a density of about 17,000 people per square kilometer (45,000/square mile). The sprawling metropolitan area is much larger at 25.6 million.

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome."

 

[Colts4me]

Fear sells really well, now that we have any number of sources to inform us fear should bring in big bucks.

 

[cigars]

If you're underground in that thing I can see how it might offer some protection from blast over pressure, depending how close the detonation was. However, the larger threat in Seoul is massive artillery bombardment. If one of those shells lands on top of your hidey hole, you're going to have a bad day.

 

[Oathkeeper1775]

They live in constant threat; there are tank traps on all the routes; with boulders stacked on top of both sides; ready to blow. There is a huge wall around Seoul; a 4foot thick door that can be closed.

Nuclear war on the Southern peninsula does nothing for the North. The North is more likely to use a non persistent nerve agent like VX or VG; it evaporates and the land can be occupied by the attacking force (Europe too).

The winter is the most vulnerable time of year in Korea; the frozen rice paddies can facilitate the March if armored vehicles (no go in the summer).

So less worried about nuclear
More worried about artillery, bio warfare and frozen rice Paddy's.

That's how it was in 79-80 when I was there.

 

[Argonaut]

There are many different opinions about the outcome of a "nuclear war" I have studied and thought about the subjust for 4 decades, since being assigned to the Stragic Air Command and after. I don't believe anyone would simply carpet bomb a country with nukes. They would be directed at major military installations and political centers first and if that was unsuccessful they would move to large densely populated areas. Off course, there would be radioactive clouds drifted by the winds but those would be directional and would eventually fall to earth. So, if you are near a large military installation or strategic city......you are probably toast. There would be large areas of rural property with little effect. If someone wants to militarily concur another country you would want it as intact as possible. The earth cleans itself constantly and like in the Japanese examples, people would be able to reinhabit effected areas much more quickly than predicted by alarmists. I am not minimizing the damage or threat but I don't see it as eliminating the human race. The little rocket man is crazy but I don't know if he is stupid. He uses saber rattling and builds up unrealistic threats from the west to satiate his starving people to keep them from overthrowing him. China has used him (and his family) as junk yard dogs for a long time, like the Russians used the Bulgarians. Times are changing in China too, with the huge rapid growth of the Chinese middle class, it becomes much more dangerous to keep a viscous dog, like in a junkyard. The consequences of a bite can be worse than loosing a few parts to a thief. These are interesting times even being less involved than I was as a young GI.

 

[Argonaut]

In the early post WW2 era, there were many ideas seriously considered for practical non military uses of nuclear explosions, I have seen plans that were very serious about setting one off near Lompoc California to produce a deep water port, and have read of other plans to blow ayay mountains to change the flow of rivers (ie....from the northwest to California) it was only later that we as school children were indoctrinated into the alarmist thinking common today.