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Ever since I started paying attention about a month ago, I've tried warning folks and most people are remarkably not receptive or outright dismissive. This ain't the flu... if you still think it is, you're just not paying attention.

There is no dispute this is the worst viral pandemic in 100 years. It's growing and here to stay. ALL of the evidence points to it. There is no cure, no vaccine, etc. Quarantine barely seems to work. The best defense is NOT getting sick.

Please, I urge you, make preparations and take this seriously! Prepare to quarantine as much as possible. Food, medicine, supplies, cleaning products, pet food, and deep pantry and medical supplies. If you can find them, N95 masks, swim goggles or other air tight goggles, and latex gloves.

* Airborne, easily transmissible, highly contagious, long asymptomatic periods of infection, very durable...

* I've seen modeling and reports that this might infect more than 1/2 of the global population. The UK government has warned its citizens of a worst case of 500,000 deaths this year from an 80% infection rate.

* Unknown global infections and deaths. Many reports from inside China are stating real numbers are many times reported figures. Total "official" fabricated numbers or blackout data in China, N. Korea, Iran, Vietnam, and elsewhere. Inadequate testing kits, government coverup or secrecy, and/or too large scale of a problem to even contemplate testing and reporting or trying to treat. Serious infections requiring urgent care are high. Death rates "postulated" to be ~9% based on numbers (the correct calculation is deaths divided by closed cases. It's not deaths divided by total infections). Of course, no good data really exists right now on total numbers in any category.

* Spread to at least 30 and perhaps 40 nations. Skyrocketing, essentially doubling frequently, infections in 1st world locations that are trying to test and control.

* US is barely able to do testing, and has confirmed or suspected cases in several states. At least one is a "communal" infection meaning the patient got it from the community. California now has ~30 positive cases, and parts of CA now on an emergency status. Bothell WA had a school closing today due to an infection concern. Ten(s) of thousands of self-quarantine suspected infected around the nation.

* Reinfection is possible, and highly fatal. This also implies no vaccine is possible, and people can be long-term carriers.

* At least 10-50% of the world is on some form of quarantine, lock down, travel restrictions or bans, and trade bans. Businesses, meetings, schools, cultural locations, sporting events, leisure locations, travel (air, uber, taxi, ship, etc.) restricted, shipping restricted, trade supply chains interrupted.

* Massive supply chain problems current and predicted into the near term. Equity markets off ~10% in a week and Dow took largest 1 day point drop in history, and largest 3 daily drops in the last year, all this week. No realistic end in sight given no vaccine or cure is on the horizon. And we're just beginning since we've had no deaths yet and barely many confirmed cases.

* Inventory shortages and price gouging has begun on bio-hazmat equipment, either sold out or triple price. Dried food like Mountain House are sold out. Expect more and broader shortages of goods and price gouging in the coming weeks and months.

And we're ~2 months into this...

I'm not interested in arguing, and won't be responding to attacks or "it's just the flu" nonsense.

 

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I am talking about the cruise ship. We have a confined ecosystem with a defined number of cases. There should be ~120 cases of severe pneumonia (or more given the average age of folks that take a cruise).
I don't think that info is available yet. There were 3700 passenger and crew (more or less) as I recall. They did not all remain there. Some were removed to hospitals in Japan as they became ill during the quarantine. Hundreds were repatriated to their native countries. There is no tally of the number who might have been hospitalized. All remaining passengers have been released as of today. So I don't suppose we will ever know, unless someone does a follow-up.
 
While at prep purchasing don't forget guns and ammo/accessories!

Reminder we are coming up on election season and you know kungflu will be a staple point.

Just got my shield upgraded to tritium sights. PSA has some tempting deals too.
 
The government has also prescribed antiviral drugs and traditional Chinese medicine as treatment methods."

Well now I feel better... :rolleyes: NYT always tells it like it is...


My 2 cents - I place no validity in that single and dubious article. I read it 3 times. So many holes... But hey, what ever make one feel good I guess.
China has been on media lock down for an entire week... Last seen - randoms snagged off the streets for no mask, folks welded into their apartments, mass fogging of entire communities with unknown "disinfectants", entire villages warding off strangers, a nationalization of a US factory for masks, yada yada yada... Too much more to list.

But now this! So warm and fuzzy and so timely! I feel much better now. :confused:

edit: No - I'm actually quite perplexed now... Do you really put that much faith in what a random Chinese official quoted in a NYT article has to say right now? Is that your proof or validation? Really? Trust the Chinese? You said you do a lot of work there. Quite connected and familiar with their business and societal practices... Me, too.
Do we *really* need to discuss what we both know to be true? There is no 'faith' in business there. Quite the opposite. Trust the PRC? Really?
 
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I will tell you what I think happened in Wuhan China, based on my experience in China and my (limited) knowledge of Chinese culture.

This is just my 0.2c and it's worth what you paid for and partially informed by the article that @DB is Here linked.

In my experience many Chinese people do not look at Western medicine or doctors the same way we do. There is a large % of the population that have an ingrained distrust in modern medicine as well as the doctors/nurses themselves. This causes them to seek alternative medical treatments that we would often mock in Western society.

I believe what happened is that as the corona virus mutated from some animal vector and was able to infect humans, it spread fairly rapidly given it's make up and mostly mild symptoms. People with pre-existing issues (pneumonia etc) turned to alternative medicine and/or were too stubborn to go to the hospital as they got sicker.

When folks finally started showing up they were in really bad shape, the medical staff probably initially thought this was their underlying condition worsening and combined with their age didn't raise a lot of initial alarm.

As the volume began to increase they realized there was likely another underlying issue and that was when testing began.

When they identified the problem as the corona virus and communicated it, it began to cause wide spread panic in Wuhan. It's almost certain at this point that the medical staff became overwhelmed by the number of people inundating the hospitals.

The truth is a huge % of those folks showed up with what were probably "mild" symptoms and when they were began confronting the doctors who were trying to trage their resources they got angry (you can see many videos online of folks shouting at doctors or nurses saying they aren't doing anything etc). As a result hospital services were likely denied or unavailable in many cases to those that actually needed it.

At this point the Chinese government tried to contain the virus by essentially isolating Wuhan. The Chinese government thought, this thing can't get to Shenzhen or Shanghai or Beijing etc.

Wuhan while large, is not nearly as important of a manufacturing hub as other areas. At that point the Western world saw what an authoritarian regime can do when they put their mind to it.

Western media basically flipped out at their response, thinking this thing has to be the next bubonic plague for them to have reacted so. That's not the case at all, the CCP would have been fine sacrificing the entire population of Wuhan (~11MM) if it meant containing the virus and not shutting down manufacturing in the more modern sectors and hurting their economy. They could easily hide the death toll if necessary and who's going to challenge them otherwise, even if the real number got out?

11MM in China is a drop in the bucket to the population, but it got out anyway because of the nature of the virus.

That's what I think happened in Wuhan, but this is just my opinion.
 
Cases were considered mild if they did not involve pneumonia, defined as infection of the lungs, or involved only mild pneumonia, the authors wrote in the study, which is among the largest to date of the new coronavirus.

There were two other categories of cases, severe and critical. Severe cases featured shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation or other lung problems. Critical cases featured respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ dysfunction. Just under 14 percent of patients were severe, and just under 5 percent critical.

My point.
 
Well now I feel better... :rolleyes: NYT always tells it like it is...


My 2 cents - I place no validity in that single and dubious article. I read it 3 times. So many holes... But hey, what ever make one feel good I guess.
China has been on media lock down for an entire week... Last seen - randoms snagged off the streets for no mask, folks welded into their apartments, mass fogging of entire communities with unknown "disinfectants", entire villages warding off strangers, a nationalization of a US factory for masks, yada yada yada... Too much more to list.

But now this! So warm and fuzzy and so timely! I feel much better now. :confused:

edit: No - I'm actually quite perplexed now... Do you really put that much faith in what a random Chinese official quoted in a NYT article has to say right now? Is that your proof or validation? Really? Trust the Chinese? You said you do a lot of work there. Quite connected and familiar with their business and societal practices... Me, too.
Do we *really* need to discuss what we both know to be true? There is no 'faith' in business there. Quite the opposite. Trust the PRC? Really?

I already wrote what I think happened in Wuhan.

But I'll bet you a PMAG that the worldwide death toll for Corona virus doesn't exceed the high side of a single year for the regular flu just in the US
 
So.....both "severely" and "critical" means severe pneumonia? See? It's pretty much all foggy info.
The definitions are in the article posted in #923. So, it's not all that foggy:

"There were two other categories of cases, severe and critical. Severe cases featured shortness of breath, low blood oxygen saturation or other lung problems. Critical cases featured respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ dysfunction. Just under 14 percent of patients were severe, and just under 5 percent critical."

Let's talk in a month. We'll see how events unfold.
 
Also if you read the article pneumonia and severe pneumonia are actually broken out.
"Cases were considered mild if they did not involve pneumonia, defined as infection of the lungs, or involved only mild pneumonia"

So, what do you call pneumonia that is not mild?
 
Boy this thread gets busy around 5PM!

I've been following this thread since day one, and I've seen a trend of people jumping in without reading the thread and posting the same things that we've spent pages and pages previously going over.
Please read the thread folks! I know it's a lot to get through but at least skim through before posting...

This image is from the worldometers.info site that has been posted here many times. Shows 18% serious or critical of CURRENT infections.

I don't care if people here are concerned or not, that's all a choice we each make based off of many factors unique to each person's life.

I hope there are a huge number of mild cases that aren't counted that will bring the rates down in reality.
But due to my responsibilities I carry I have to pay attention and I personally believe this virus is something to prepare for, at least because of public panic that is sure to set in if this takes off.

Screenshot_20200227-182731_Chrome.jpg
 
At the end of the day, some of us will agree and some won't.
But please read through all of the excellent points of view on both sides of the argument that's already been posted... it's the same thing over and over it seems.
 
Just a heads up on P100. You cannot sleep in one. Takes to much breathing effort. N95 is possible. I use one to combat pollen allegies. Daytime not an issue when up and about.

Why it matters is if you are in home with an infected, sleeping in a mask might make sense.

Likewise sleeping in a proper gas mask is super tough. I never could. Like being under a compressive chest weight. Lot to be said for battery operated positive pressure face mask/shield HEPA filter P100 types.
I have fallen asleep several times wearing a full face respirator (p100). It is a little disconcerting when you wake up with the mask strapped to your face. I have put in many hundreds of hours in a full face respirator, forced air purifying, forced air hoods and SCUBA - both positive pressure and demand mode. I am not bothered in the least.
 
As I've said before, I don't care what anyone else (other than family and friends) does to prepare. Preparing for this disease could be a waste, or not - but isn't that the essence of preparing? Life may go on entirely without disruption, but I sleep better knowing that if it does get ugly, I'm ready to hunker down.

As an aside, is it possible for the Mods to remove the sword of Damocles hanging over this thread - people have been pretty well behaved for several days now.
 
I completely agree that the MSM blows everything out of proportion to sell the news.

But we have to look beyond that and not base opinions off of that, for or against. Those that panic strictly from the news are no different than those who refuse to look for themselves strictly because they hate the news hype.
 
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