JavaScript is disabled
Our website requires JavaScript to function properly. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser settings before proceeding.
Status
Next, it's apparently done a fairly effective job at spreading and killing. Wouldn't you agree?

Not even remotely do I agree. It has been very effective at causing panic. It has not proven to be nowhere near as virulent as has been suggested by the...more progressive SHTF'ers. It has definitely not proven to be as deadly, either.

The epicenter is, very coincidentally, Wuhan China...If we accept the numbers, and nobody does, 75000 were infected. ~20,000 cases resolved, and over 2200 dead. So an 11% fatality rate based on figures so far. Spread pretty effectively effected and killed nearly as many as 9/11/01, and their economy is going to be badly injured. Seems like a effective weapon to me... And those figures are probably really under-reported and I've seen models suggesting many times infection and death numbers.

Wuhan, China...a population of over 11 million people. And only how many infected and how many dead? Even if you triple your own numbers? How much of the populace is that for Wuhan, China? After 3 months and a piss-poor, slow reaction by the government, and it's people didn't know to try to protect themselves? Doesn't spread very well in my opinion, especially for a supposed bio weapon, and no where lethal enough, either. As an easier way to grasp this, we have 1 confirmed case in WA...and still only 1 confirmed case in WA even though this patient had contact with over a dozen people. This was the 1st case in the US.

It is aerosol, according to experts. It has spread into and thru quarantined cabins on cruise ships, and across hotel floors thru sewage lines and the only explanation is aerosol. It has incubated for up to 24 days in some cases. And it has survived a reported 9 days exposed to air. It has high critical care rate, ~20% according to published figures. That ties up medical resources. It has a 11% fatality rate, making it very deadly. This combination makes it a very desirable bio-weapon. Maybe not the best ever made, but remarkably effective from my foxhole.

This is all half-truth and no-truth. It is airborne only in the sense of water droplets expelled by infected. It is not airborne in the true sense of being able to survive in a dry form, like Anthrax is. It is not persistent. Measles can last up to 2 hours in a room after an infected person leaves it. This virus, like ALL OTHER COMMON VIRUSES can persist longer on porous surfaces, but it will die after just minutes of airborne exposure. It is sensitive to all disinfectants and UV light. The critical care rates are all just guesses. There are NO published figures outside of the official Chinese ones that you so vehemently distrust (with good reason). The fatality rate is also just a guess, and I would say not even a best-guess but rather a worst-case scenario guess.

Next point, in ALL of China, which is a massive nation, isn't it just remarkable that this really nasty virus with excellent bioweapon qualities could originate anywhere in the world with overcrowding and dirty cities and bats. Yet Wuhan is the epicenter. What a remarkable coincidence.:rolleyes:

Asia, of which the majority belongs to China, has been the source of many pandemics in human history. Mostly it is been explained due to bird migrations. Do you know that when scientists develop the flu vaccine which they have to do every single year since, unlike this virus, it mutates rapidly, they study China to guess what it will be next year? Why might that be? The last "big" outbreaks all started in China, and had the same worldwide scares associated with them. SARS and Avian Flu. There will be more in the future to panic about, so don't get too depressed this one will fizzle.

Yeah, I know no one that is buying into this stuff likes to hear the comparison to the seasonal flu. "This one is way more deadly" they say. That may be, but the flu is waaaaay more contagious, and they develop vaccines for it. Take this season for example. The influenza B is particularly deadly, and this outbreak is one of the deadliest on record. However, the vaccines for both Influenza A and Influenza B were accurate for this season's virus and very effective. And still, over 10,000 Americans have died to it this year so far. Because it happens every year, it doesn't make the sensationalist news like a super-tacticool new, novel virus does. Hard to cause panic when the rest of the world would say, "it's the flu, no big deal."

You don't give China enough credit for bioweapons development. If they were so backward, un-technological, and unsophisticated, how come they own so much US debt? How come they have a nuclear arsenal? How do their submarines not sink? How can their hackers be so effective? Don't underestimate China. It is a huge mistake. Their people are as, if not more, patriotic than we are. They don't completely buy the current regime, but in China, you don't like the current government, just wait for the next dynasty to come along. With the newfound wealth and relative freedoms people are now enjoying there, and the realization that Mao is now longer 100% right, but just 70% right, and the dissatisfaction of long-time party members, massive corruptions and scandals, and the democracy now movement, China is a dangerous place.
 
Okay, one last try.

I think it's important for the CDC and others in the government to figure out the source, as it might impact the search for treatments of the infected and the search for a vaccine.

But for those of us here, the source is irrelevant for a variety of reasons.

First, we simply don't have good information and probably won't for a period of weeks, months or years. The CCP isn't going to suddenly adopt a policy of transparency, so it's going to take a lot of digging and research to get a definitive answer and to find, if we ever do, patient zero.

Second, I'm not equipped to do any basic research into this virus, and doubt that many (any) others here are - for lack of both training, expertise, information and secure bio-hazard containment facilities. So where it came from is useless information for us here.

Third, whatever "features" this virus has will be displayed by the data collected from and about those who get sick and those who die. We don't need to know where it came from to get that data, particularly if there are widespread outbreaks outside of China. (However, many states in the US are asserting that reporting the number of cases is somehow a violation of patient privacy rights. If lots of nations take this approach, particularly western nations, data will be continue to be hard to come by.)

Fourth, I need to know how to protect me and mine from this virus, and what to do if any of me and mine contract it. Knowing where it came from isn't going to make that process any easier or harder.

Finally, for me, the largely unfounded speculation about the source in this thread tends to make me want to go to other sites where there are more fact based, data driven discussions about this virus. It's still potentially very early in the game, and separating the wheat from the chaff is difficult enough, without dumping more chaff in the mix.

So, I need to know how to avoid it, how to treat it at home, if possible, and how to prepare for it. For example, we make virtually no antibiotics in the US - they're mostly made in China and India. But this virus kills in part by reducing the body's resistance to bacterial pneumonia - so antibiotics are pretty crucial. In fact, most medications are made in China, not here. So, if you or members of your family are dependent on one or more medications, it might be wise to see if you can lay in a 90 day supply. Most PPE is made in China, try buying enough N95 masks for you and your family these days - they're not there. And if China decides it needs the antibiotics or PPE it makes more than we do - oops.

So as entertaining in a "golly look at that" way as discussions about where this virus came from may be, the answer to that question - which we won't know for a long time - is utterly irrelevant to any thoughtful action plan, and the noise of that speculative discussion drowns out and drives out useful information. YMMV.

Practice the same habits you would to counter the flu, and you're 90% there. Wash your hands, get plenty of rest, cover coughs and sneezes. Wipe down countertops, door knobs, and other hard surfaces using over the counter disinfectant wipes. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth without washing your hands first.

Antibiotics don't work for viruses. Don't buy into the surgical mask hype, they won't keep you from getting sick just keeps your nasty droplets to yourself. Stay away from buffets and casinos (this last one is a personal joke).

You will have a fever before you have any dangerous complications. If your temperature doesn't drop in response to "aspirin" type medication, see a health care professional. You either will get better or not. Nothing you can do will really change that, just hope the dice doesn't come up snake eyes.

Same stuff the doctors tell patients every time their kids get the sniffles, really.
 
"The State Department had vowed that no one with the infection would be allowed on — but then urged health officials to let the sick, yet symptom-free, passengers board, the paper reported."

This, and the relatively long incubation period during which it can be transmitted are worrisome to me. I travel extensively for work at border crossings, seaports and airports. I see sick people being taken by ambulance from these sites multiple times a day. It's a real concern for staff.
 
Fine. Message received. Apparently shutting down conversation is better than just ignoring it if you don't want to participate. Clearly, people don't want any view that makes them uncomfortable. Could be productive dialogue, but whatever. Tapping out of this thread.

Hoping and praying for the best and that ya'll and your families endure.

I appreciate your input here. You make some fine points, and while I still don't understand the importance you put on nailing down once-and-for-all whether this is man made or not, you do make a convincing case IMO.

And others make a good case against.

If I ever need legal help or representation in the state of Idaho, I will be trying to get in contact with you! You are definitely a bulldog!

Please continue to contribute, I find your perspective valuable, but can we please quit with the bioweapon arguments on BOTH SIDES for at least 24 hours?
 
Last Edited:
Doesn't spread very well in my opinion,
I AM NOT taking the position that COVID-19 is a man-made bioweapon, however if it doesn't "spread well", how do you explain the events on the Diamond Princess? Over 600 of the passengers infected so far, apparently starting with a single passenger who disembarked before developing symptoms, even though the passengers were kept in semi-isolation in their cabins.

Or today's report from S. Korea that a single woman infected 80 others confirmed, and possibly as many as 400 who are symptomatic but not yet tested, by attending 4 church services.

I would call that spreading fairly well. Just curious as to your criteria for spreading well.
 
Not the first example or worst example of a cruise-ship spread sickness....one reason I will never "be caught dead" on one.

They even call these noroviruses "cruise ship sickness":

Why do people get sick on a cruise ship?
The cause of most cruise line norovirus outbreaks is contaminated food or water. The way it spreads is through physical contact. With over 3,000 people in close quarters aboard these ships, obviously the disease spreads quickly.
 
Last Edited:
I think I'll avoid them, too. But you didn't answer my question.

I didn't see a question, only a statement:
I would call that spreading fairly well. Just curious as to your criteria for spreading well.

It spreads not faster or better than other known viruses. The hyperfocus on this one particular virus makes it seem like it is more virulent than it really is. I edited my previous post to include the very common phenomenon of cruise ship sicknesses and why it is so effective.
 
COVID-19 is not a norovirus. Noroviruses belong to the family Caliciviridae. COVID-19 belongs to the family Coronaviridae.

Let's look at an objective measure of spreadability, R0 (basic reproduction number). R0 for influenza is 1.2. Most studies published to date estimate R0 of COVID-19 to be around 2.5. Some have said it's as high as 4 to 6. So, I have to take exception to your statement, "It spreads not faster or better than other known viruses."
 
A quote about "estimated" coronavirus r0:

If you want to describe how an infectious disease spreads, one handy number is what epidemiologists call R0 ("R naught"), the disease's basic reproductive number. Right now, scientists are trying to figure out the R0 for the new coronavirus from Wuhan, China. So far, it seems to be a little bit higher than for the flu, but less than for many other infectious diseases...

These estimates put the new coronavirus in a similar category as SARS and MERS, which are both also coronaviruses. Both of those looked scary at first, and were definitely worth some concern, but neither took over the world like a horror movie scenario.

So, there you have a direct quote..."less than for many other infectious diseases".
 
As a comparison, since the advent of the internet and countless couch experts, panic and hysteria seems to have a r0 of 100k...

By the way, r0 is not static, it changes, and is only a basic descriptor. COV-19 is way to new to get a real number...and you know that.

Maybe this "Swine Flu Apocolypse" quote for 2009 will jog someone's memory (I was in Asia during this laughable outbreak):

Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918-1919 pandemic strain (mean R0 approximately 2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1).

We all have lived through dozens and dozens of pandemics in our lifetimes, each claiming to be the next global killer...people just seem to have very short memories. Look up availability heuristic bias.
 
1582292882064.png
BOLO Deyin Guo

https://www.ws-virology.org/dt_team/deyin-guo/
 
I dont think it's an escaped bioweapon, but if I was going to design a weapon it would stress my enemies resources and hobble them, not kill them right off. If I was designing it as a first strike weapon I would do my best to make it not look like a bioweapon.
 
Last Edited:
Status

Upcoming Events

Tillamook Gun & Knife Show
Tillamook, OR
"The Original" Kalispell Gun Show
Kalispell, MT
Teen Rifle 1 Class
Springfield, OR
Kids Firearm Safety 2 Class
Springfield, OR

New Resource Reviews

New Classified Ads

Back Top