Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[Cavedweller]

The biggest problem with this virus isn't how bad it is by itself, but it appears to cause pneumonia in around 18% of cases. If it takes hold here in a big way even our excellent USA medical facilities will be overwhelmed by that.

Exactly. The great majority of these cases may recover, but they are still looking at 2 to 4 weeks in the hospital. I've said it before, but I'll say it again: It could be very expensive.

 

[E4mafia]

Exactly. The great majority of these cases may recover, but they are still looking at 2 to 4 weeks in the hospital. I've said it before, but I'll say it again: It could be very expensive.

Thats another worrying thing I hadn't thought about. Getting stuck in the hospital and waiting on results or dealing with it and hoping it doesn't go extreme.

As a prior 10 year smoker i've wondered about how vulnerable I would be to this going extreme. I have quit about 3 months ago but I know thats not enough healing time.

Or getting stuck in one of those quarantine areas like the boat trip where the guy who broke out said he waited 14 days. I couldn't imagine being stuck somewhere for 14 days off guard.

 

[leadcounsel]

I presume you mean post 538. Please tell me what part of this paper says the virus used in their mouse model is COVID-19.

I'm a lay person, not a scientist or a biologist. My lay understanding is that the SARS-Coronavirus was named SARS-COV when it was developed, and later named SARS-COV-2 to indicated a Wuhan outbreak. Then, later for simplicity named COVID19. To me, the connection is clear and logical that this virus was made in a lab. YMMV.

AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Update: 'A bit chaotic.' Christening of new coronavirus and its disease name create confusion
By Martin EnserinkFeb. 12, 2020

"COVID-19 is a name for the disease, not for the virus that causes it, which until now had a temporary moniker, 2019-nCoV, signifying it was a novel coronavirus that emerged last year. But the pathogen also got a new designation, which arrived before Tedros had even finished his press conference, by way of a preprint posted on bioRxiv by the body charged with classifying and naming viruses. The Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, the paper noted, had decided that the virus is a variant of the coronavirus that caused an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–03. So, it named the new pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.

But that's not a name WHO is happy with, and the agency isn't planning on adopting it. "From a risk communications perspective, using the name SARS can have unintended consequences in terms of creating unnecessary fear for some populations, especially in Asia which was worst affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003," a WHO spokesperson wrote in an email to Science. "For that reason and others, in public communications WHO will refer to 'the virus responsible for COVID-19' or 'the COVID-19 virus,' but neither of these designations is intended as replacements for the official name of the virus" that the study group has picked.

Misunderstandings about the virus and disease names began almost immediately. Journalists listening to Tedros's press conference tweeted that the virus finally had a name, COVID-19, only to correct themselves moments later. Although nomenclature is a minor issue amid a widening public health crisis, even some virologists were taken aback by the seemingly conflicting announcements. "Ok, one day two names for the same virus," Marion Koopmans of Erasmus Medical Center wrote on Twitter. "Sounds like some people need to meet and sort things out."

"I agree it is a bit confusing," says virologist Alexander Gorbalenya of Leiden University, a member of CSG and the first author on the bioRxiv manuscript about the virus. "The explanation is complex, and some people may not have enough patience."

The discrepancy comes from WHO and CSG following completely different routes to their labels. WHO—whose experts didn't consult with Chinese officials, a WHO spokesperson says—named the disease sticking to a few generally accepted principles. Disease names can't refer to people, groups of people, or geographical locations, which can be stigmatizing; they also shouldn't include names of animals, which can be misleading because some animal viruses jump species and become a human pathogen, as SARS-CoV-2 has done. WHO's chosen name, COVID-19, is just short for coronavirus disease 2019. (The first known pneumonia cases from the virus occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.) The name offends no one and can be recycled if other coronaviruses jump from animals to humans in the years ahead.

For the virus, CSG took a scientific approach, says its chair, virologist John Ziebuhr of Justus Liebig University Giessen. Based on its recently sequenced genome, the new virus belongs to the same species as the virus that caused the SARS epidemic of 2002–03, which is called SARS-related coronavirus. ("Species" are difficult to define in viruses, whose genomes change all the time, but Gorbalenya's group has come up with a system to do so for coronaviruses, described in two papers in 2012, that is generally accepted, says Raoul de Groot of Utrecht University, who's also a member of CSG.)

The virus may be novel to the rest of the world, but it isn't really to taxonomists, Ziebuhr says, so it's not getting its own name. Instead, the committee appended a "2" for viruses isolated from patients in Wuhan and elsewhere.

It wouldn't be the first time a virus and a disease have different names: the variola virus causes smallpox, for instance, and AIDS is caused by HIV.

Ziebuhr says WHO has informed him that the name doesn't sit well with China, which has resisted any comparisons between the current crisis and traumatic SARS epidemic, which also emerged first in that country—if only because the new virus appears to have a lower mortality rate and far more often causes mild disease. "It's important to make clear that this name is not a reference to the disease this virus causes. There is no link between the name and the disease SARS. That's the difficulty that WHO is facing," Ziebuhr says. He points out that hundreds of other viruses found in bats and other animals—many by Chinese researchers—all carry the same species name as well.

Mike Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, says he won't use the name SARS-CoV-2 either. "We don't believe it is an accurate name, actually confusing a quite different disease (SARS) with this one (COVID-19)," Osterholm says. But Ziebuhr says many other researchers will probably start using the new name. "The positive response I am getting from many colleagues, including Chinese scientists … makes me confident that, in a short period of time, the virus name SARS-CoV-2 will be widely accepted by the research community and beyond," he says."

 

[Cavedweller]

To me, the connection is clear and logical that this virus was made in a lab. YMMV.

Well, apparently the connection isn't quite as clear to the Coronavirus Study Group (the folks who did the naming):

"The present outbreak of lower respiratory tract infections, including respiratory distress syndrome, is the third spillover, in only two decades, of an animal coronavirus to humans resulting in a major epidemic."

But, what would they know? They probably don't watch InfoWars.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses – a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group

The present outbreak of lower respiratory tract infections, including respiratory distress syndrome, is the third spillover, in only two decades, of an animal coronavirus to humans resulting in a major epidemic. Here, the Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy...

www.biorxiv.org

 

[leadcounsel]

Well, apparently the connection isn't quite as clear to the Coronavirus Study Group (the folks who did the naming):

"The present outbreak of lower respiratory tract infections, including respiratory distress syndrome, is the third spillover, in only two decades, of an animal coronavirus to humans resulting in a major epidemic."

But, what would they know? They probably don't watch InfoWars.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses – a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group

The present outbreak of lower respiratory tract infections, including respiratory distress syndrome, is the third spillover, in only two decades, of an animal coronavirus to humans resulting in a major epidemic. Here, the Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy...

www.biorxiv.org

That article is not peer reviewed and seems self serving.

I'm open to all theories. They may be correct. I've read several reports by governments or scientists claiming it is a natural illness. I'm finding skepticism in these self-serving statements geared toward stemming a panic or blame laid on government(s). Of course anyone involved will deny it.

I've read a number of equally credible scientific reports stating it was created in a lab or labs. Some written by Chinese scientists who would be likely facing severe penalties including death for making such admissions. In trying to find those articles it appears they've been flushed down the memory hole... so I cannot produce them right now. I think they're somewhere in this thread.

I tend to err on the side of believing people who have skin in the game, versus a cover-up claim "nothing to see here...".

 

[Kruel J]

If this thread had stuck to facts and real information instead of InfoWars-type conspiracy theories I would never had made any comments.

But I'm the a-hole. Got it.

 

[leadcounsel]

If this thread had stuck to facts and real information instead of InfoWars-type conspiracy theories I would never had made any comments.

But I'm the a-hole. Got it.

And why isn't it an equal conspiracy theory to believe the nonsense that this just naturally spawned from a bat soup in a market, conveniently just hundreds of feet from a BIOWEAPONS LAB and a Biology University, both in Wuhan?

The facts, according to Senator Cotton, refute that it came from a food market.

If I'm playing the odds, far greater chance of this near PERFECT virus being man-made or man-cultured than just coincidentally originating from a natural bat disease. Do the infected bats just naturally hang out by the Bioweapons labs in Wuhan?

News report on this:

I guess one of the most respected US Senators, Tom Cotton, is a fringe lunatic?
Two videos of Senator Cotton stating his case, that there is evidence of a lab created virus.

 

[Cavedweller]

That article is not peer reviewed and seems self serving.

That article is the original source for the article you posted in 583.

I've read a number of equally credible scientific reports stating it was created in a lab or labs. Some written by Chinese scientists who would be likely facing severe penalties including death for making such admissions. In trying to find those articles it appears they've been flushed down the memory hole... so I cannot produce them right now. I think they're somewhere in this thread.

There was a paper published by Chinese scientists which said the virus may have escaped from from a lab, not that it was created in a lab. And yes, there is a Daily Mail article about that in this thread. I posted it myself. If you can find others I'd like to see them.

I tend to err on the side of believing people who have skin in the game, versus a cover-up claim "nothing to see here...".

I don't see a single Chinese name in the authorship, so why would they "cover up?"

 

[leadcounsel]

I don't see a single Chinese name in the authorship, so why would they "cover up?"

1. Governments attempting to prevent panic. If you look on google there is a strangely large effort to discredit the idea that it might be man-made. I think at best, we just don't know. But why the massive effort to "debunk" it? That seems like protesting too much.

2. Dr. Boyle's conclusion is that it was created in South Carolina in a lab and sold to the Chinese. I don't know if that's supported by evidence or not, but if that is true, it might make sense to "refute" this with disinformation such as we've seen. Strong denials when we don't even really know what this is (or, do we?) seem very suspicious.

Question:

Fort Dietrick is one of our top bioweapons labs. Would you think it suspect if suddenly some horrible virus originated in a market 200 feet from the lab and kill thousands and spread like wildfire? And the explanation - before we even know much about the virus - is that it's a natural virus from an infected dog or whatever? I find that a far-fetched answer.

 

[Kruel J]

@leadcounsel if it was a near PERFECT virus (your words) it would be easily spreadable through casual contact and would have an extremely high mortality rate. Neither is true.

I'll buy the pizza. You bring the tinfoil.

 

[CountryGent]

If this thread had stuck to facts and real information instead of InfoWars-type conspiracy theories I would never had made any comments.

This is where I am too. Initially, I really appreciated the aggregation of news stories as I'm trying to stay on top of the story. We have two small children, so there is concern there for their safety. The two adults are healthy and fit, but one has a medical condition, and the other is in the process of confirming one. And we prepare hard for every eventuality, including a contagion.

But when it went into the conspiracy dumpster, including at least two (if not more) links to, arguably, the biggest purveyor of pseudoscientific horse-crap in the western world, count me out. There is enough noise in the media already without adding the nutbars into the cacophony.

 

[jayR]

$35 for the rest of the story..

The spike glycoprotein of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV contains a furin-like cleavage site absent in CoV of the same clade

In 2019, a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infecting Humans has emerged in Wuhan, China. Its genome has been sequenced and the genomic information promptl…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[leadcounsel]

@leadcounsel if it was a near PERFECT virus (your words) it would be easily spreadable through casual contact and would have an extremely high mortality rate. Neither is true.

I'll buy the pizza. You bring the tinfoil.

You're right. Governments always shut down air travel for entire countries, lock down nations and cities, quarantine entire cruise ships, build massive hospitals, get dozens of massive incinerators, and hide information from the public when a mildly contagious and barely fatal disease is floating around. Cost to these governments is probably going to be measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars every week in economic losses. United States Senator briefing heads of the Armed Services and suggesting this is a biologically manufactured virus. (PS in the law, this is what we call strong circumstantial evidence that things are not the MSM and governments suggest.)

But, move along. Time to close the thread. It's all conspiracy land nonsense. Kruel J has it figured out. Nothing to see here. No tin foil needed.

 

[Cavedweller]

And why isn't it an equal conspiracy theory to believe the nonsense that this just naturally spawned from a bat soup in a market, conveniently just hundreds of feet from a BIOWEAPONS LAB and a Biology University, both in Wuhan?

The lab which is a few hundred feet from the seafood market is the Wuhan Center for Disease Control. It is not even a BSL-4 facility. What evidence do you have that is is a biowarfare lab?

The facts, according to Senator Cotton, refute that it came from a food market.

Cotton has said he thinks the Chinese are not being fully forthcoming. He has not said he thinks the virus is a bioweapon. You keep saying 2+2=5.

Do the infected bats just naturally hang out by the Bioweapons labs in Wuhan?

No, but they do have bat colonies there and they do isolate viruses from them for research purposes and infective material could have escaped.

Did coronavirus originate in Chinese government laboratory?

A new bombshell paper from the Beijing-sponsored South China University of Technology says that the Wuhan Center for Disease Control could have spawned the contagion in Hubei.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[jayR]

system check.. normalcy bias

 

[Kruel J]

You're right. Governments always shut down air travel for entire countries, lock down nations and cities, quarantine entire cruise ships, build massive hospitals, get dozens of massive incinerators, and hide information from the public when a mildly contagious and barely fatal disease is floating around. Cost to these governments is probably going to be measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars every week in economic losses. United States Senator briefing heads of the Armed Services and suggesting this is a biologically manufactured virus. (PS in the law, this is what we call strong circumstantial evidence that things are not the MSM and governments suggest.)

But, move along. Time to close the thread. It's all conspiracy land nonsense. Kruel J has it figured out. Nothing to see here. No tin foil needed.

You musta forgot about SARS and MERSA. Different song, same dance. Geez man.

 

[Cavedweller]

2. Dr. Boyle's conclusion is that it was created in South Carolina in a lab and sold to the Chinese. I don't know if that's supported by evidence or not, but if that is true, it might make sense to "refute" this with disinformation such as we've seen. Strong denials when we don't even really know what this is (or, do we?) seem very suspicious.

Since you continue to quote Boyle I am done with this conversation. Have your little fantasies.

 

[CountryGent]

I had a couple interactions with the medical community along these lines. Yesterday at doctor's office:

Doc: "Have you ever engaged in international travel?"
Me: "Yah, but years ago. Been to Canada, Latin America .."
Doc (cutting me off): "But not China, right?"
Me: "No, never been." (shrug) "Don't see the need."
Doc: "Have you been in close contact or had intimate relations with someone who recently visited China?"
Me (managed to stifle my standard giggle): "No .. not that know of."

Today when calling to schedule an MRI:

Operator: "You need to arrive 45 minutes early."
Me: "Out of curiosity, why? Paperwork?"
Operator: "Paperwork, administration of a sedative if deemed necessary, and you'll be screened for the Coronavirus."
Me: "OK, but I never been to China or something like that."
Operator: "We're screening everyone for the virus."

Guess they ain't screwing around. Though I have no idea what she meant by that. Guess I'll find out soon enough.

 

[albin25]

Q - What's seems to be way more contagious than the Corona Virus?

A - The Conjecture Virus!

 

[CountryGent]

Business Insider magazine has a comparison of the new virus and the SARS outbreak: The new coronavirus has killed nearly 3 times as many people in 8 weeks as SARS did in 8 months. Here's how the 2 outbreaks compare.