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in case it has not been mentioned, pick up some N95 or higher rated masks. Our clinic cant order any because of a big backorder. But there are plenty of them at the hardware stores. Regular paper masks are fine if someone is already infected to limit the spread by their cough but they do nothing to prevent getting the infection.

If the big medical distributors are out and it shows up in the US with any significant spread, the hardware stores will sell out with the panic.

I had to buy my own masks for the clinic to have on hand. I have a full face gas mask as backup.
 
No masks in stock ?.... y'mean I just can't use duct tape and coffee filters? ;)

probably better than what the chinese are doing. See all these (except maybe the 2 in the back)? All useless against protecting from the virus. I wonder why it is spreading?

download (1).png
 
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"In Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, a man in his 60s who recently returned from a trip to Hawaii has tested positive for the coronavirus, the city government said. He has not visited China recently."

 
"In Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, a man in his 60s who recently returned from a trip to Hawaii has tested positive for the coronavirus, the city government said. He has not visited China recently."
I'll be in my bunker. They are already rationing sales of masks at Home Depot here after the news today. Best to pick up a few while you have the chance.
 
Took care of an auto repair I'd been putting off. A new alternator for my 4x4. Then did $900 worth of Costco to add to my preps today. Frozen foods, fresh foods, dry and canned goods. And cleaning supplies, bleach, clorox wipes, and laundry soap. Dog food. Filled the freezer with steaks, fish, and ground buffalo and ground turkey. And I even forgot a few things... so may go back or hit a grocery store.

My goal is to be able to hunker down for months if necessary, and not leave. If the utilities remain on, I can now do that.
 
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Took care of an auto repair I'd been putting off. A new alternator for my 4x4. Then did $900 worth of Costco to add to my preps today. Frozen foods, fresh foods, dry and canned goods. And cleaning supplies, bleach, clorox wipes, and laundry soap. Dog food. Filled the freezer with steaks, fish, and ground buffalo and ground turkey. And I even forgot a few things... so may go back or hit a grocery store.

My goal is to be able to hunker down for months if necessary, and not leave. If the utilities remain on, I can now do that.

The utilities staying on is something I've been wondering about. I see the government trying to keep them on long as they can. Figure as soon as the power and water go there's going to be panic and riots.
 
I wonder if there is run on full face gas masks with 40mm NATO replacement cartridges? That is assuming that supply of filter masks run out. :(
 
The utilities staying on is something I've been wondering about. I see the government trying to keep them on long as they can. Figure as soon as the power and water go there's going to be panic and riots.
I haven't seen any reports of utilities being a problem in any of the affected Chinese cities. If there are problems they seem to be more related to the difficulty of delivering food to quarantined areas and shortages of medical supplies (so far).
 
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Confirmed cases and death tolls have essentially more than doubled and nearly tripled in a week. Mostly in China.

The good news, is that if actual infections are even 10x reported with a constant death toll, that means lethality is 10x less. For instance we believe it's 2% fatal with current numbers but if infections are 10x more, than lethality is .2%.

Recovery rate is harder to gauge.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
02/06/20: 28,353 Confirmed, 0565 Dead, 1,382 Recovered
02/07/20: 31,515 Confirmed, 0638 Dead, 1,644 Recovered
02/08/20: 34,945 Confirmed, 0725 Dead, 2,352 Recovered
02/09/20: 37,590 Confirmed, 0814 Dead, 2,896 Recovered
02/10/20: 40,573 Confirmed, 0910 Dead, 3,497 Recovered
02/11/20: 43,138 Confirmed, 1,018 Dead, 4,228 Recovered
02/12/20: 45,201 Confirmed, 1,116 Dead, 4,975 Recovered
02/12/20: 45,206 Confirmed, 1,117 Dead, 5,123 Recovered
02/13/20: 60,348 Confirmed, 1,369 Dead, 6,212 Recovered
02/14/20: 64,447 Confirmed, 1,384 Dead, 7,050 Recovered
 
Confirmed cases and death tolls have essentially more than doubled and nearly tripled in a week. Mostly in China.

The good news, is that if actual infections are even 10x reported with a constant death toll, that means lethality is 10x less. For instance we believe it's 2% fatal with current numbers but if infections are 10x more, than lethality is .2%.

Recovery rate is harder to gauge.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
02/06/20: 28,353 Confirmed, 0565 Dead, 1,382 Recovered
02/07/20: 31,515 Confirmed, 0638 Dead, 1,644 Recovered
02/08/20: 34,945 Confirmed, 0725 Dead, 2,352 Recovered
02/09/20: 37,590 Confirmed, 0814 Dead, 2,896 Recovered
02/10/20: 40,573 Confirmed, 0910 Dead, 3,497 Recovered
02/11/20: 43,138 Confirmed, 1,018 Dead, 4,228 Recovered
02/12/20: 45,201 Confirmed, 1,116 Dead, 4,975 Recovered
02/12/20: 45,206 Confirmed, 1,117 Dead, 5,123 Recovered
02/13/20: 60,348 Confirmed, 1,369 Dead, 6,212 Recovered
02/14/20: 64,447 Confirmed, 1,384 Dead, 7,050 Recovered

im sure if there lying about the numbers of infected there not being up front with the numbers of deaths.
 
An article in the Saturday, February 15 WSJ. Snippet:

My grandfather, a retired Air Force lieutenant-colonel who had penned an unpublished hagiography of Stalin, objected. Yes, he loved his only grandson, and yes, he feared radiation. But his entire life experience had taught him that nothing was more frightening than the wrath of the state. Even as Kyiv's top nomenklatura spirited their families away, the state apparatus was threatening to punish rumormongers and deserters. By trying to escape I would become both, my grandfather warned.

I didn't heed him and took the overnight train to Donetsk, along with my girlfriend and her mother. The train was half-empty, but two days later, as full-fledged panic finally broke out, the city's central train station became a whirlpool of humanity. Some parents, convinced that staying in Kyiv meant imminent death, handed their toddlers to strangers through train windows.

Fear of Chernobyl had overcome fear of the state, and nothing was the same ever again. A dictatorship built on coercion and lies faces existential risks when it's confronted with something scarier than its machinery of repression. In the summer of 1986, Ukrainians started openly talking about ecology and nuclear safety, and those conversations rapidly morphed into an independence movement that rejected both Communism and Moscow's rule.


 
R0 (aka R-naught). The number of confirmed cases is still climbing. I expect it will go a LOT higher. ...but in some ways the R0 doesn't appear to be dramatically higher than a typical flu virus. The R0 might be in the range of 2.4 - 2.8, meaning for every person infected 2.4 to 2.8 additional people will come in contact with the virus.

A study carried out at the Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated the R0 to be 4.7-6.6.

Based on the extreme measures China has taken and how quickly it spread on that cruise ship docked in Japan, this estimate seems more realistic.
 
It amazes me in this day and age that we can't get a reliable sense of what the real story is (even in China).

Has anybody heard the stories of crematoriums running in overtime mode? Sounds like misinformation to me but I would like to know the real story.

I had heard the numbers were stabilizing, is that not true?
 
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