Lowest winter wheat crop plant since 1913.

[persuader]

I know 1 think prices at the store are climbing fast.Me and the wife went shopping today and the price of folgers coffee 5lb went up 2.10 as we watched the guy put new tags on the coffee unreal.Notice most of the fruits and veggies are from mexico and other countries .Read this article Im thinking food shortage by spring or summer.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9541856

Read More

 

[Member 5605]

It's been a long time in the making.

 

[gnarkill]

Never a better time to go paleo...cut out those grains altogether.

 

[ak56]

My wife is gluten-intolerant, so wheat crops are meaningless to us.

 

[doobee8]

Maybe they're going to plant more corn for bio-fuel which is not wise either. Much of our agricultural might, in the past, seemed to be based on our wheat production. What does this portend?

 

[JRucker2004]

The article is misleading, at the very least. The amount of wheat that can be produced on an acre of land has more than doubled since 1913.

There was a prediction a couple years ago that there was going to be a huge shortage (and I mean a HUGE shortage, like the world was going to run out 4 months before the next available supply would be harvested), which caused the price to skyrocket to over $15/bu. After a few months, they figured out that it was BS, and the price went back down to around $4/bu


Keep in mind, just because there isn't wheat on that land doesn't mean there isn't anything else on that land. Wheat isn't one of those "OMG we're gonna die without it" products. Corn, on the other hand...
There are lots of perfectly good substitutes for it, barley, rye, etc

Yes, there is a drought. It happens. Ever 4-6 years, in fact.

Here is what our dry land wheat made, on average for the past few years (in bu/acre):
Notice in the 50's, the averages were considerably lower than lately. 1954 was 32, which would be like a 50 adjusted for inflation. You can see the production fluctuate every 4-6 years, and this has a whole lot to do with how much rain we got.

So, you want my opinion? Freak out, we're all gonna die. Wait, no, that's not right... Prices on things like bread, bagles, flour, etc will go up a few cents, but it's not something to freak out about. Keep buying so we can get another new tractor.


1947 20.46
1948 22
1949 20
1950 11.55
1951 32.6
1952 25
1953 25.9
1954 34.147
1955 24.68
1956 25.6
1957 31.13
1958 35.3
1959 33.3
1960 31.92
1961 16.13
1962 32
1963 31.37
1964 27.56
1965 25.379
1966 35
1967 21.38
1968 22.3
1969 20.26
1970 36
1971 38
1972 30.59
1973 17.37
1974 34.6368
1975 32.9
1974 27.076
1977 14.445
1978 29.33
1979 30.79
1980 26.88
1981 67.79
1982 34.22
1983 51.35
1984 53.45
1985 25.66
1986 28.93
1987 58.84
1988 46.48
1989 29.39
1990 25.44
1991 23.76
1992 28.3182
1993 45.666
1994 33.7096
1995 37.75
1996 57.18
1997 68.1348
1998 52.25
1999 28.3293
2000 38.509
2001 24.93
2002 23.55
2003 27.48
2004 41.25
2005 41.6274
2006 43.0049899
2007 47.395
2008 30.4402
2009 (around 32, iirc)

 

[Gunner3456]

Relax. Our family has a 4,000 acre wheat and cattle ranch in E. Oregon near Condon. Wheat prices are too low to justify planting. That's because there is a world wide glut of wheat, even a leftover glut from last year's crop.

Also, there are ideal weather conditions in S. America and that's bringing on a bumper crop there.

There is, worldwide, simply too much wheat available.

When we see any commodity price rise, it's due to the declining value of the dollar. It sure isn't due to a booming worldwide economy which would cause a high demand or shortages.

Worldwide the economy sucks - much worse than the gov't regulated "official" reports. Unemployment may be double the "official" numbers as we know because they show only people who are drawing unemployment.

Farmers simply don't anticipate that there will be buyers at a price which justifies the cost of planting, growing, and harvesting.

The price NEEDS to firm up, and this may well do it. It's just the law of supply and demand at work. I agree that now is a good time to buy, not plant and sell.

$.02

 

[gnarkill]

I swear this country has been completely over run by fear mongers (big corporations). We are like dumb sheep running from one epidemic to another.

If its not oil and global warming, it was the stock market, then it was swine flue, now they are trying to make people panic about food supplies.

The only people who stand to gain from all of this are the big corporations, its like someone is going around and saying ok it's your turn to get even more filthy rich, then once that epidemic calms down we'll move onto the next.

That might be some tin hat talk but thats what I see anyways.

 

[Gunner3456]

The article is misleading, at the very least. The amount of wheat that can be produced on an acre of land has more than doubled since 1913.

There was a prediction a couple years ago that there was going to be a huge shortage (and I mean a HUGE shortage, like the world was going to run out 4 months before the next available supply would be harvested), which caused the price to skyrocket to over $15/bu. After a few months, they figured out that it was BS, and the price went back down to around $4/bu


Keep in mind, just because there isn't wheat on that land doesn't mean there isn't anything else on that land. Wheat isn't one of those "OMG we're gonna die without it" products. Corn, on the other hand...
There are lots of perfectly good substitutes for it, barley, rye, etc

Yes, there is a drought. It happens. Ever 4-6 years, in fact.

Here is what our dry land wheat made, on average for the past few years (in bu/acre):
Notice in the 50's, the averages were considerably lower than lately. 1954 was 32, which would be like a 50 adjusted for inflation. You can see the production fluctuate every 4-6 years, and this has a whole lot to do with how much rain we got.

So, you want my opinion? Freak out, we're all gonna die. Wait, no, that's not right... Prices on things like bread, bagles, flour, etc will go up a few cents, but it's not something to freak out about. Keep buying so we can get another new tractor.


1947 20.46
1948 22
1949 20
1950 11.55
1951 32.6
1952 25
1953 25.9
1954 34.147
1955 24.68
1956 25.6
1957 31.13
1958 35.3
1959 33.3
1960 31.92
1961 16.13
1962 32
1963 31.37
1964 27.56
1965 25.379
1966 35
1967 21.38
1968 22.3
1969 20.26
1970 36
1971 38
1972 30.59
1973 17.37
1974 34.6368
1975 32.9
1974 27.076
1977 14.445
1978 29.33
1979 30.79
1980 26.88
1981 67.79
1982 34.22
1983 51.35
1984 53.45
1985 25.66
1986 28.93
1987 58.84
1988 46.48
1989 29.39
1990 25.44
1991 23.76
1992 28.3182
1993 45.666
1994 33.7096
1995 37.75
1996 57.18
1997 68.1348
1998 52.25
1999 28.3293
2000 38.509
2001 24.93
2002 23.55
2003 27.48
2004 41.25
2005 41.6274
2006 43.0049899
2007 47.395
2008 30.4402
2009 (around 32, iirc)

+1

 

[Gunner3456]

I swear this country has been completely over run by fear mongers (big corporations). We are like dumb sheep running from one epidemic to another.

If its not oil and global warming, it was the stock market, then it was swine flue, now they are trying to make people panic about food supplies.

The only people who stand to gain from all of this are the big corporations, its like someone is going around and saying ok it's your turn to get even more filthy rich, then once that epidemic calms down we'll move onto the next.

That might be some tin hat talk but thats what I see anyways.

I swear every time anything happens it's the fault of "big corporations." Nice try. I love big corporations because they fuel the economy and provide jobs. They made the computer I'm sitting at and my cars. I look all around me right from where I'm sitting and I can't see anything that wasn't made by a "big corporation." How my life would be different without them. I guess I could go back to the stone age.

I'll bet Detroit, now an ugly ghost town, wishes it had its "big corporations" back.

ALL farmers are affected by food commodity prices, and those are affected by the value of the dollar (government) and supply and demand (people.)

 

[persuader]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/22/quarter-us-grain-biofuels-food

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2010/01/setting-nogger-strait-about-us-crop.html

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44689581

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/10/usda-estimates-are-wrong.html

One only needs to watch the weather around the US ,and I drive I-5 as a truckdriver from Portland to the grapevine from sac to the grapevine is a fallowed wasteland and is getting worse.All because of a delta smelt.The main storage LAKE OFF I-5 IS EMPTY.Drought or by design,theres plenty of water in the delta system but the pumps are off and locked up.If you believe in the usda quess we can believe the bankers too.As my grandfather said never believe what the usda says ,believe in what you plant grandson ,because you cant sell what you did not plant.And all ways take for your needs first and sell the rest.

 

[bersaguy]

I swear every time anything happens it's the fault of "big corporations." Nice try. I love big corporations because they fuel the economy and provide jobs. They made the computer I'm sitting at and my cars. I look all around me right from where I'm sitting and I can't see anything that wasn't made by a "big corporation." How my life would be different without them. I guess I could go back to the stone age.

I'll bet Detroit, now an ugly ghost town, wishes it had its "big corporations" back.

ALL farmers are affected by food commodity prices, and those are affected by the value of the dollar (government) and supply and demand (people.)

+1! Well said Gunner.