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Outright door-to-door confiscation of guns isnt going to happen. It isnt logistically possible, and it isnt politically feasable. Even the neutral or anti-gun libs would oppose it. The standard "jack-booted ATF thugs and UN troops kicking down your door" scenario is nothing more than fear-mongering.
Maybe you forgot about the katrina confiscations? I would say that a similar incident on the same or larger scale happening is pretty unlikely for the forseeable future. I would not go so far as to call it an impossibility though.
The real danger for gun rights is the "death by a thousand cuts". Our guns wont get banned...but they will slowly be regulated to death. The ammo will get microstamped, taxed, and registered into unaffordability. Guns will be held to impossible consumer-safety standards that are designed to keep tort lawyers employed. Child-safety laws, storage requirements, fees, background checks, limits on magazine capacity, mandatory training classes, zoning regulations, liability insurance....you name it and the nanny state will impose it. Like a frog that dies in a pot of water that is slowly brought to boil, our right to keep and bear arms will soon become nothing more than a 'virtual" right that exists only on paper but that no one can afford.
I do agree that this outcome is far more likely than a full on ban and confiscations. However I have faith that if all, or even a majority of gun owners keep working to educate people and vote intelligently that we will continue to gain more ground than we lose.