JAPAN - SHTF - Washington and Oregon coast Tsunami Watch Alert

[MA Duce]

the simple point is they are increasing at an alarming rate and more severe, and for those who read the scriptures (not something that is popular or cool to most) it is all talked about in many different places as the beginning of the end times. Matt. 24:4-31 is just one of many if it interests you, if not then no worries. Not trying to start a debate, argument or anything else simply sharing what I have read and made a comment on it.

Anyway you look at it, it is a very bad day for those folks in Japan, I feel bad for them and the kids in particular. Could very easily be us at any time.

You can't assert things as fact which are not fact and expect to go unchallenged. It may work for articles of faith such as the Bible. the Koran or the Mouseketeers handbook but it doesn't work for facts.. The simple point is earthquakes ARE NOT increasing in either frequency or amplitude. Visit the USGS website and see for yourself.

 

[MuddyWatters]

Strong reminder to check your preps.

 

[Sun195]

Got a call from my mom at 1am about this - she lives in Long Beach and was wondering if she should evacuate. I told her not to; go to higher ground at around 7am when the waves are supposed to hit. My thinking was that a) I didn't think this would inundate the peninsula based on what I was reading and b) having her drive around in the middle of the night could result in deer collision, running off the road, drunk drivers, etc. Nothing bad happened, so I guess that we made the right choice...

It did bring up some "prep" issues that I'll be fixing for her in the days to come - she had no water bottles (nothing - hard to believe), not much food that didn't need to be prepared to eat, no battery operated radio to take along, etc. When I think of bug-out-bags, I think of societal collapse - but this was one situation where a BOB would have been handy.

Another thing - she uses a cel phone, so didn't get the reverse-911 call about this incident. Might be worth investing in a land-line.

 

[Doubletap]

The earth shall be in travail, like a woman in childbirth..

I believe you may have hit the nail on the head there.....

 

[MA Duce]

Got a call from my mom at 1am about this - she lives in Long Beach and was wondering if she should evacuate. I told her not to; go to higher ground at around 7am when the waves are supposed to hit. My thinking was that a) I didn't think this would inundate the peninsula based on what I was reading and b) having her drive around in the middle of the night could result in deer collision, running off the road, drunk drivers, etc. Nothing bad happened, so I guess that we made the right choice...

It did bring up some "prep" issues that I'll be fixing for her in the days to come - she had no water bottles (nothing - hard to believe), not much food that didn't need to be prepared to eat, no battery operated radio to take along, etc. When I think of bug-out-bags, I think of societal collapse - but this was one situation where a BOB would have been handy.

Another thing - she uses a cel phone, so didn't get the reverse-911 call about this incident. Might be worth investing in a land-line.

Sounds to me like your advice was sound. And I see a BOB as just that...for whatever reason.

 

[Barefoot343]

Wow... you told me, way to go.

I will say that I stated that not as fact, that's why I said "the simple point" (I should have inserted - I was trying to make) thanks for straightening me out with both barrels. Also love your funny you put in about the mouseketeers, I can laugh too right?

Again, my point is that in the last 12 months the large scale earthquakes seem to me to be larger and more frequent as compared to previous years. It is just my opinion OK? Have you seen any 8.9's (actually upgraded to 9.1 last I heard) recently? me either. I will research more after dinner and see if this is true, then we can debate more if you want.

Like I said before, whether you believe it or not I was simply sharing what I read and what I thought appears to be happening, thought it was interesting that's all.

 

[PhysicsGuy]

Wow... you told me, way to go.

I will say that I stated that not as fact, that’s why I said "the simple point" (I should have inserted - I was trying to make) thanks for straightening me out with both barrels. Also love your funny you put in about the mouseketeers, I can laugh too right?

Again, my point is that in the last 12 months the large scale earthquakes seem to me to be larger and more frequent as compared to previous years. It is just my opinion OK? Have you seen any 8.9's (actually upgraded to 9.1 last I heard) recently? me either. I will research more after dinner and see if this is true, then we can debate more if you want.

Like I said before, whether you believe it or not I was simply sharing what I read and what I thought appears to be happening, thought it was interesting that’s all.

Nothing wrong with putting out a thought.

Actually large earthquakes happen in that area approximately on average every 200 years, and they knew they've known (and prepared) for another for many years.

BUT, here in the Cascadia subduction zone, they occur on average every 300 years, and the last one occurred in the year 1700. The frequency and severity of the large Cascadia quakes really wasn't understood until the 1980's, and we still really aren't prepared.

Some people may call these events "acts of god" but there is a science behind it.

 

[gaijinsamurai]

My wife's family is in Chiba Prefecture, just outside Tokyo. Her parents only sustained some light damage to the inside of their house, and they are okay. Her brother was not as fortunate, and while he and his family are okay, a lot of their belongings were damaged or destroyed.

 

[Brown Trout]

You can't assert things as fact which are not fact and expect to go unchallenged. It may work for articles of faith such as the Bible. the Koran or the Mouseketeers handbook but it doesn't work for facts.. The simple point is earthquakes ARE NOT increasing in either frequency or amplitude. Visit the USGS website and see for yourself.

Sorry Duce but I have to call BS on this one. You should practice what you preach (pun intended). I decided to visit the USGS website and I found out that earthquakes are increasing in number, at least in the last 20 years, which I figure is a long enough sample period to decide whether they are increasing or decreasing. For your viewing pleasure I have decided to post the link.

<broken link removed>

<broken link removed>

 

[PhysicsGuy]

Sorry Duce but I have to call BS on this one. You should practice what you preach (pun intended). I decided to visit the USGS website and I found out that earthquakes are increasing in number, at least in the last 20 years, which I figure is a long enough sample period to decide whether they are increasing or decreasing. For your viewing pleasure I have decided to post the link.

<broken link removed>

<broken link removed>

Your two links just killed your argument. If you look at the stats in the second label, notice that the estimated count of magnitudes 2-4.9 are far higher than any of the statistics from the 1990s. This is because the recorded statistics are just that, earthquakes that have been recorded, not that are occurring in the world. As seismometer networks and technology improved, they've been able to detect more and more smaller and deeper quakes.

If you look at the larger quakes (which are much easier to record), the trend doesn't really change.

Also looking at a 10 year span doesn't do any sort of analysis justice.

 

[MA Duce]

Sorry Duce but I have to call BS on this one. You should practice what you preach (pun intended). I decided to visit the USGS website and I found out that earthquakes are increasing in number, at least in the last 20 years, which I figure is a long enough sample period to decide whether they are increasing or decreasing. For your viewing pleasure I have decided to post the link.

Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
8.0 to 9.9 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 0
7.0 to 7.9 18 16 13 12 11 18 14 16 11 18

Seems to me if there as a trend of more and bigger ones that table would show it......it doesen't show any increasing trend. The number of 7.0 to 7.9 was the same in 1990 as it was in 1999...and there was a dip in frequency between those years. The mag 8 range shows no trend upwards either.....

Then if the tables are confusing there is this text from the Wikipedia entry on earthquakes, sourcing data from the USGS:
The number of seismic stations has increased from about 350 in 1931 to many thousands today. As a result, many more earthquakes are reported than in the past, but this is because of the vast improvement in instrumentation, rather than an increase in the number of earthquakes. The USGS estimates that, since 1900, there have been an average of 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) per year, and that this average has been relatively stable.[21] In recent years, the number of major earthquakes per year has decreased, though this probably a statistical fluctuation rather than a systematic trend. More detailed statistics on the size and frequency of earthquakes is available from the USGS.[22]

 

[MarkAd]

the simple point is they are increasing at an alarming rate and more severe, and for those who read the scriptures (not something that is popular or cool to most) it is all talked about in many different places as the beginning of the end times. Matt. 24:4-31 is just one of many if it interests you, if not then no worries. Not trying to start a debate, argument or anything else simply sharing what I have read and made a comment on it.

Anyway you look at it, it is a very bad day for those folks in Japan, I feel bad for them and the kids in particular. Could very easily be us at any time.

Amen to that. Last night this event put me on my knees in prayer. I have watched the videos several times and it is so surreal I have a hard time beliving it.
I am in total awe of the pure raw power of nature.

Regardless of the various opinions, we should all give thanks that we have the knowledge and skills to be prepared, to some degree, for these disasters.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

You can't assert things as fact which are not fact and expect to go unchallenged. It may work for articles of faith such as the Bible. the Koran or the Mouseketeers handbook but it doesn't work for facts.. The simple point is earthquakes ARE NOT increasing in either frequency or amplitude. Visit the USGS website and see for yourself.

This is delusional.. this one quake was only one of 5 of this power level since 1900.. and we are not referring merely to quakes, but to tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons, and many other massive disasters.. including starvation and disease.. and large scale war..which are all increasing greatly in severity since 1900

 

[Brown Trout]

Your two links just killed your argument. If you look at the stats in the second label, notice that the estimated count of magnitudes 2-4.9 are far higher than any of the statistics from the 1990s. This is because the recorded statistics are just that, earthquakes that have been recorded, not that are occurring in the world. As seismometer networks and technology improved, they've been able to detect more and more smaller and deeper quakes.

If you look at the larger quakes (which are much easier to record), the trend doesn't really change.

Also looking at a 10 year span doesn't do any sort of analysis justice.

I should back away slowly based solely on your name, but I can't help myself.

Barefoot said there has been an increase in earthquakes and the magnitude of them. I said nothing of the magnitude of them, only of the increase in relation to their number. I have no idea of the network of seismometers, other than they have increased. I suppose one could assume that this accounts for the increase in earthquakes, I could see that but I won't assume it. My thinking is if there was an increase in 2's through 5's you would also see a jump in 0's through 2's.

I fail to see how two charts that show a definite increase in number of recorded earthquakes over 20 years kills the argument that there is an increase in the number of earthquakes. I get what you are saying about recorded earthquakes vs. earthquakes occurring, I just don't think it proves the point.

 

[PhysicsGuy]

I should back away slowly based solely on your name, but I can't help myself.

Barefoot said there has been an increase in earthquakes and the magnitude of them. I said nothing of the magnitude of them, only of the increase in relation to their number. I have no idea of the network of seismometers, other than they have increased. I suppose one could assume that this accounts for the increase in earthquakes, I could see that but I won't assume it. My thinking is if there was an increase in 2's through 5's you would also see a jump in 0's through 2's.

I fail to see how two charts that show a definite increase in number of recorded earthquakes over 20 years kills the argument that there is an increase in the number of earthquakes. I get what you are saying about recorded earthquakes vs. earthquakes occurring, I just don't think it proves the point.

My point was that if you look at the columns for the larger magnitude quakes (5.0 and larger), there is not really a statistically significant increase.

But there is a reason there is no data available from before the 90s, the sensor network just wasn't there, and its still not truly global at this time either. (at least not in a very accurate sense)

I wouldn't worry too much about any sort of 20 year trends in tectonic processes, in geologic time scales, that's faster than the blink of an eye.

Don't mind my arguing though, I just like to argue at times


What we really should be getting from this is that we here in the northwest are due for a very large quake, likely in our lifetime. Its best to be prepared, and understand what to do when it happens.

 

[Brown Trout]

MA DUCE's quote:

Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
8.0 to 9.9 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 0
7.0 to 7.9 18 16 13 12 11 18 14 16 11 18

Seems to me if there as a trend of more and bigger ones that table would show it......it doesen't show any increasing trend. The number of 7.0 to 7.9 was the same in 1990 as it was in 1999...and there was a dip in frequency between those years. The mag 8 range shows no trend upwards either.....

Then if the tables are confusing there is this text from the Wikipedia entry on earthquakes, sourcing data from the USGS:
The number of seismic stations has increased from about 350 in 1931 to many thousands today. As a result, many more earthquakes are reported than in the past, but this is because of the vast improvement in instrumentation, rather than an increase in the number of earthquakes. The USGS estimates that, since 1900, there have been an average of 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0-7.9) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) per year, and that this average has been relatively stable.[21] In recent years, the number of major earthquakes per year has decreased, though this probably a statistical fluctuation rather than a systematic trend. More detailed statistics on the size and frequency of earthquakes is available from the USGS.[22][/QUOTE]




Earthquakes range in magnitude from .1 to 9.9 from what I can tell. You listed magnitudes 7.0 to 9.9. Charts are only confusing when you use 30% of them for your statistical data.

As far as your last paragraph, the first sentence is a direct quote from USGS website, the second sentence highlighted in red and the most difinitive and important statement, I could not find in the USGS statement. It seems like a strong opinion, just not one that the USGS is willing to state.

The rest of the paragraph is irrelevent to my original point because it only discusses earthquakes of a large magnitude. I posted links showing data that the number of recorded earthquakes of all magnitudes has risen due to what I believe is an increase in earthquakes.

 

[Brown Trout]

My point was that if you look at the columns for the larger magnitude quakes (5.0 and larger), there is not really a statistically significant increase.

But there is a reason there is no data available from before the 90s, the sensor network just wasn't there, and its still not truly global at this time either. (at least not in a very accurate sense)

I wouldn't worry too much about any sort of 20 year trends in tectonic processes, in geologic time scales, that's faster than the blink of an eye.

Don't mind my arguing though, I just like to argue at times


What we really should be getting from this is that we here in the northwest are due for a very large quake, likely in our lifetime. Its best to be prepared, and understand what to do when it happens.

agreed.

 

[PhysicsGuy]

Earthquakes range in magnitude from .1 to 9.9 from what I can tell. You listed magnitudes 7.0 to 9.9. Charts are only confusing when you use 30% of them for your statistical data.

As far as your last paragraph, the first sentence is a direct quote from USGS website, the second sentence highlighted in red and the most difinitive and important statement, I could not find in the USGS statement. It seems like a strong opinion, just not one that the USGS is willing to state.

The rest of the paragraph is irrelevent to my original point because it only discusses earthquakes of a large magnitude. I posted links showing data that the number of recorded earthquakes of all magnitudes has risen due to what I believe is an increase in earthquakes.

You really wanted me to make a graph didn't you?

Well here is a representation of the highest magnitudes (6.0+), I was going to add 5.0-5.9, but the count was too high compared to the other 3 categories, but Ill get to that later;





As you can see there isn't really a significant increase of any of the categories above 6.0, and even a decrease in a case.

But looking at 5.0-5.9 there actually is a decent increase of approx 124 quakes more per year. But then again this is on the threshold of a trend most likely created by an increase in detection capabilities. But I am by no means a seismologist.

 

[MrNiceGuy]

Since smaller earthquakes are usually imperceivable to humans, either due to distance from epicenter or limited crust shift, the number of seismometers has a direct correlation effect with the amount of recorded earthquakes. This fact is not based on assumption.

Strong earthquakes (7.0+) have been increasing over the past 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. This is true.
In terms of global events, this is like saying it's been colder in the past week then the average temperature for the past 9 months. Both are interesting tidbits of information, but it would be reckless to draw any major conclusions from such insufficient data.

In geological terms, what we're seeing lately isnt sh*t. If we look at evidence left from earthquakes that have happened over the past few thousand years, what happened in Japan wouldnt even be considered a slight tremor. I'm sure that if anyone witnessed these earthquakes, they too would have believed that the "end time" was near.

Imagine the headlines the next time that yellowstone blows, or as we approach the next ice age, or the next time earth is subjected to a large meteor strike. I'm not talking about some puny >1mile crater in arizona type of meteor either, I'm talking more along the lines of the Chicxulub crater.

 

[MA Duce]

I guess my main problem is with the way every time there is a disaster the walls exude those claiming proof of the end of the world. Since the early days of Christianity the woe mongers have claimed the end was near. Religion depends on fear and the enforced acceptance of carefully manufactured texts to keep the sheep in the flock. I just finished reading a history of the 14th century in which the zealots of fairy tales claimed the plague was a sure sign of the end of the world.........been 600 years since then and no end of the world. I used the heaviest magnitude earthquakes in the sample I posted earlier since that is the range that causes most damage, below 3 they are usually not even felt, and less than 6 rarely cause the type of widespread damage the Bible thumpers use for justification of their delusional ranting.
You are of course free to believe what you want, but don't try to push your fantasy based "facts" onto others. It insults your audience.