Is a shift to a wartime economy coming?

[American123]

Who is John?

He’s the guy with the long mustache, duh.


Also, the chair is against the wall.

 

[Cavedweller]

The Russians are in pretty bad shape,

"The Russians are in pretty bad shape" is the conventional wisdom. Never the less, in order to sustain the current level of materiel consumption on the NATO side, Admiral What's-His-Name says we must divert industrial capacity from civilian goods production to military goods production. It's been reported that the Ukrainians are consuming artillery ammunition 3 times faster than we can produce it. We've had to buy hundreds of thousands of rounds from the S. Koreans because our own stocks are so low. The other day it was reported that we are now shipping our prepositioned ammo stockpiles in Israel to Ukraine, to the consternation of the Israelis. The Russians, on the other hand, seem to have no problem consuming ammunition at a rate 10X that of the Ukrainians. Even the Ukrainians admit this. So I doubt if counting on Russian weakness is a good strategy at this point.

 

[JuglansRegia]

"The Russians are in pretty bad shape" is the conventional wisdom. Never the less, in order to sustain the current level of materiel consumption on the NATO side, Admiral What's-His-Name says we must divert industrial capacity from civilian goods production to military goods production. It's been reported that the Ukrainians are consuming artillery ammunition 3 times faster than we can produce it. We've had to buy hundreds of thousands of rounds from the S. Koreans because our own stocks are so low. The other day it was reported that we are now shipping our prepositioned ammo stockpiles in Israel to Ukraine, to the consternation of the Israelis. The Russians, on the other hand, seem to have no problem consuming ammunition at a rate 10X that of the Ukrainians. Even the Ukrainians admit this. So I doubt if counting on Russian weakness is a good strategy at this point.

The Ukrainians are shooting more in one day than the entire EU countries can produce in a month. Russia is currently burning 2-5 times that. Once Russia starts sending their 76mm divisional guns to the front, then you know they are getting to the bottom of their stockpiles.

 

[GWS]

We should recall that Russia/ Soviet union was on a wartime economy for almost 50 years. They are or soon will be shooting munitions from the 70s, 60s and eventually WWII. At the end of WWII, we burned, buried or dumped into the ocean tons of munitions and weapons. The Russians stored theirs.

 

[Cavedweller]

The Ukrainians are shooting more in one day than the entire EU countries can produce in a month. Russia is currently burning 2-5 times that. Once Russia starts sending their 76mm divisional guns to the front, then you know they are getting to the bottom of their stockpiles.

So who do you expect will run out first? Do me a favor, will you? When you see those 76mm guns show up let me know.

They are or soon will be shooting munitions from the 70s, 60s and eventually WWII... The Russians stored theirs.

Actually, the bulk of that was sold for export. Half of it is probably sitting in the basements of NWFA members.

 

[gmerkt]

There is almost nil political will for a general mobilization conflict level war in the US. Both on the part of the people and the pols. Look at the Vietnam War, the political will for that fiasco was such that our federal government wouldn't even undertake a serious activation of the reserve components. Let's not forget one of the outcomes of that now long ago conflict was abolition of the draft.

Western countries having given up conscription, there is almost no going back. The US does have a remnant Selective Service System, most young people don't even know it exists. Even if an actual draft were to be reinstated in the US, 90% of those age eligible wouldn't meet standards for enlistment. They are physically unfit, users of drugs, diagnosed with ADHD and many other mental and emotional illnesses, real and imagined. Those actually fit AND willing to serve would be a small minority.

Autocracies (fancy word for dictatorships) are able to compel their citizens to bear arms involuntarily. That story has passed for Western governments. We've seen how thousands of draft eligible Russian men fled their country. You'd see worse here if it came down to that. They wouldn't flee so much as they'd rebel. The Vietnam War protests would seem tame compared to what rioters can get away with now. In my opinion.

The potential for a multiple conflict war exists. While the US is rolling out the barrel in Ukraine by proxy, the Chinese are licking their chops in the Far East. Then there are the North Koreans who could get frisky if a golden opportunity presented itself. How about Iran? I was just thinking about this same situation last night; the times we live in are complicated and dangerous. In retrospect, the fear and danger of the Cold War era seems comforting. It least things were predictable and relatively stable then. Both major contestants had The Bomb, feared and respected it, and adults were in charge.

The Afghan War, another long and unnecessary fiasco, is cast in a particularly bad light now. We sure could use the Trillions of dollars we wasted there for our current predicaments. When we finally pulled out of there with our tail between out legs, I thought, "Okay, good, now we can stop enriching defense contractors and arms manufacturers. They will be unhappy to see their gravy train come to an end." That didn't last long.

Will the Russians run out of ammunition? Well, they probably have warehouses containing dumb bombs and simple artillery rockets made in 1945. They are well known for never throwing anything away. The more technical stuff, like that requiring electronic guidance, etc., was never produced in the same quantities and those may be running low. The effectiveness of artillery has a diminishing value over time when applied to the same terrain. After while, the combatants are just blowing up rocks. Because the civilians have all been killed or evacuated and the soldiers are underground. This is what is happening in eastern Ukraine at present. It's a result of getting mired in relatively static warfare, like WW1 on the Western Front. This kind of prolonged warfare really emphasizes the pointless nature of armed conflict at its worst. It's now thought that the Russians have been saving up for a renewed offensive and the static phase may get interrupted in the near future. Which in no way would mean that the death and destruction would come to an end, it would just change form somewhat.

My dad served in WW2 as an officer in the Army Air Forces, then filled out a retirement in the USAFR. Later, I myself served an enlistment in the regular army, then another six years in the Army National Guard. However, there was a time that I worried for my son. I was a selfish parent. But I don't worry anymore. He's 43 years old, he'll never have to go. One daughter is a registered nurse, she'd be more apt to call-up that our son. Because the SSS has compelled the various states to furnish lists of all licensed medical professionals who would be potentially liable to call-up during a big, shooting war. But as I've said above, I don't see it as a serious danger.

 

[doobee8]

^^^ I had heard that the US military is having a hard time recruiting lately. This seems to coincide with the youth of America being as soft as marshmallows on a Phoenix driveway.
Que the welfare state.

Had more to do with Vax Mandate, which is now lifted, and new woke military policies/ training.

 

[Knobgoblin]

Good point. Some perfectly capable citizens I know have been denied entry into specific branches of the military due to medical history.

 

[deadeye]

Actually, the bulk of that was sold for export. Half of it is probably sitting in the basements of NWFA members.

I can neither confirm nor deny that but............... the chair is against the wall and the cans are piled high.

 

[Mono1]

 

[DunRanull]

Who is John?

John is the guy who set the chair against the wall, and turned molasses into cognac....

 

[DunRanull]

Unless they have a plan to coordinate poisoning our food supply with invading Taiwan, Chinese ownership isn't much of an issue. The operations can be put under US government conservatorship, nationalized, or sold off to US citizens/corporations. They won't be shut down.

On the other hand, US corporations have made enormous investments in Mainland China, and those will be confiscated at the outset of any war.

The question is, will Apple demand that we surrender so they can keep the introduction of the newest iphone on track? How about the NBA? And the other companies that are dependent on continued trade with China?

A face-off shooting war is somewhat avoidable by establishing that we have the ability to shut down sea traffic in and out of the South China Sea. If the raw materials for China's industrial economy, especially oil, are shut down by an effective blockade, they have little to gain and a lot to lose. The same goes for things coming out of China. The credible ability to blockade is more of a threat than the ability to fight face-to-face, and China is decades from being able to break a blockade beyond the islands of their neighbors.

I think that above-referenced article is intended to alert the public to the need to bolster the armed forces so it has the ability to conduct such an operation.

Cutting off oil and scrap steel to Japan in 1941 had consequences. Prepare for the consequences.
PEARL HARBOR NEVER AGAIN! FJB the red Chinese stooge!

 

[Cavedweller]

"Germany is considering re-routing existing subsidies for eliminating coal-fired power plants to help defense manufacturers build new production facilities, according to people familiar with the matter."

Link below works even tho it looks wierd.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[JuglansRegia]

Apparently Ukraine has hostile neighbors on most of their borders. Even though Taiwan is facing a larger enemy, they have a lot of water between them and China, that complicates any invasion several fold. Now with real time spy satellites and such there is little chance of a surprise invasion unless China makes a tunnel under the sea to Taiwan. Sure they could deliver some men via submarine but probably not enough to make a real difference. So it will be interesting to see what China comes up with. If they do invade, expect a real blood bath.

 

[GWS]

We need to stop worrying about Ukraine and get our own house in order

GAO: Navy Not Ready to Repair Battle Damaged Ships

Navy ships face growing maintenance delays, costs, watchdog reports

Add to this it will take years for us at triple shifts in the factories to rebuild the munitions stocks that we've already given the Ukraine.
And add to that the POTUS, (Potatohead Of The United States) has been depleting our strategic oil reserves for political gain here at home and who knows what he got for the oil he gave the Chinese.
We are in bad shape

 

[JuglansRegia]

We need to stop worrying about Ukraine and get our own house in order

GAO: Navy Not Ready to Repair Battle Damaged Ships

Navy ships face growing maintenance delays, costs, watchdog reports

Add to this it will take years for us at triple shifts in the factories to rebuild the munitions stocks that we've already given the Ukraine.
And add to that the POTUS, (Potatohead Of The United States) has been depleting our strategic oil reserves for political gain here at home and who knows what he got for the oil he gave the Chinese.
We are in bad shape

Most of the gear we have been gifting to Ukraine was designed to deal with a Soviet/Russian threat, if it gets used up neutralizing that threat it will be a rare instance of expensive military items getting used for their intended purpose before they become obsolete. Yes the stingers are obsolete, electronics that are 10 years old are considered ancient, stingers are what 30-40 years old, we can't even make them anymore because some of the original electronic components are no longer produced. 155mm Artillery shells, we won't get close enough to China to use them. What about the cluster munitions for the HIMARS and MLRS, instead of spending lots of $$$ to demill them, they could be sent to Ukraine for proper disposal.

 

[SSG-69]

MacGregor is out of his depth.

A shift to a wartime economy would revitalize American manufacturing in America - not a bad thing.

You might have trouble getting that big TV at Costco.

Seriously, my focus is earthquakes and WW3; we are going to have it out with China this decade.

 

[Martini_Up]

“proper disposal “ Hehe!

 

[whiskeybill]

We need to stop worrying about Ukraine and get our own house in order

GAO: Navy Not Ready to Repair Battle Damaged Ships

Navy ships face growing maintenance delays, costs, watchdog reports

Add to this it will take years for us at triple shifts in the factories to rebuild the munitions stocks that we've already given the Ukraine.
And add to that the POTUS, (Potatohead Of The United States) has been depleting our strategic oil reserves for political gain here at home and who knows what he got for the oil he gave the Chinese.
We are in bad shape

Our fleet is in disarray. The much vaunted LCS class of vessels (Littoral Combat Ship) is already being mothballed to scavenge parts for the remaining vessels. Logistics is a nightmare.

Our shipyards are way outdated to accommodate many of the new ships, and dry docks date back to WWII. Never get one of the new class of "Super Carriers" in an old dry dock.

Parts across the fleets are scarce, and the logistics to get parts to the fleet are a fragile supply line at best.

Sailors are getting out left and right, retention sucks and enlistments are not keeping up. It's becoming the old "If they don't meet standards, lower the standards". It's getting that way across the services.

Yep, I did a 21 year career in the Navy, retiring in 1994. I've seen many of the same things happen with different administrations. I remember cruises up to a year in length, I did a nine month cruise once. You get to spend months at sea without a port of call. Everything you get is vert-rep or un-rep. Many times the carrier group that is supposed to relieve on station doesn't make it out due to one thing or another.

Maybe I'm mistaken, but through all those tough times, I never once heard of a Sailor committing suicide. Once in awhile you might get a jumper, they would pick him up and send him back to the beach. Easy ticket home when you don't care. These Sailors that are committing suicide while the ship is in the yards, now THAT is troubling.

Incidentally, most of this has been in the news for the last several years, much of it starting before the Trump administration.

I'm not going to pontificate on the why's of all this, just going to say that Mission readiness is appalling.

 

[GWS]

Most of the gear we have been gifting to Ukraine was designed to deal with a Soviet/Russian threat, if it gets used up neutralizing that threat it will be a rare instance of expensive military items getting used for their intended purpose before they become obsolete. Yes the stingers are obsolete, electronics that are 10 years old are considered ancient, stingers are what 30-40 years old, we can't even make them anymore because some of the original electronic components are no longer produced. 155mm Artillery shells, we won't get close enough to China to use them. What about the cluster munitions for the HIMARS and MLRS, instead of spending lots of $$$ to demill them, they could be sent to Ukraine for proper disposal.

Unless the Chinese set foot on Taiwan. Then we will be more than close enough.