if you have heavily invested in stocks, something to think about

[chariot13]

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[matt_w]

If we use a statistical hypothesis test we're 100% certain to have a crash within the next 6 months.

what

 

[chariot13]

what

Raise your hand up and smack it on the table. If it makes a noise the first time then you're 100% certain it will make a noise when you do it again, no?

 

[matt_w]

The financial/stock market is a complex, non-linear system. No one can say what will happen with it with 100% certainty (and anyone who claims it is a liar or misguided). Using that logic I could say what the weather will be like on June 12, 2014 because I know what the weather was on June 12, 2010.

The markets are rigged and being propped up by central banks, governments, high-frequency trading, and other criminal enterprises. They are propped up for the purpose of making the average know-nothing confident in the economy and giving investment bankers annual bonuses. They could crash tomorrow or they could go up another 20%. Does it really matter though? There is still high unemployment and 50 million people on food stamps.

 

[chariot13]

The financial/stock market is a complex, non-linear system. No one can say what will happen with it with 100% certainty (and anyone who claims it is a liar or misguided). Using that logic I could say what the weather will be like on June 12, 2014 because I know what the weather was on June 12, 2010.

The markets are rigged and being propped up by central banks, governments, high-frequency trading, and other criminal enterprises. They are propped up for the purpose of making the average no-nothing confident in the economy and giving investment bankers annual bonuses. They could crash tomorrow or they could go up another 20%. Does it really matter though? There is still high unemployment and 50 million people on food stamps.

It's not at all complex. Building up an economy is much like building up a bunch of cardboard boxes or even concrete cinder blocks. You can only go so high before it topples over. To sit here and say we have more financial stability today than we did on July 19th 2007 is a joke. We are much worse off today than we were then, with a whole hell of alot more debt. We are 72 billion+ above our debt limit of 16.394 trillion. Thats all in the hole. Maybe you're thinking if you dig your economy into a hole deep enough you can cantilever the top from falling over, thats not how an economy works. Once we surpass our maximum potential in our economy, its gonna collapse just like it did before but i believe much worse.

Your figure of 50 million people on food stamps is what the government troll fed media wants you to believe. Of those 50 million people, millions of them have children, roomates & significant others (girlfriends, boyfriends, spouses) in that same household utilizing those foodstamps. Its way worse than the media wants people to believe. There's 79,361,069 families in the US. 48 million have someone in their household that has applied and was approved to use food stamps. Most people on food stamps are not single. Do the math.

 

[DireWolf]

The first time the dow ever went above 14,000 points was July 19th 2007, it peaked at 14,164.53 on October 9th, 2007. Less than a year and a half later the dow dropped down below 7000. If we use a statistical hypothesis test we're 100% certain to have a crash within the next 6 months. However since we have only been above 14,000 points for a span of 3 months ever, its likely gonna start happening much sooner & I believe it will be much worse than our last 'recession'. Just my opinion

Have you done this "statistical analysis"?

 

[Bob D]

a statistical hypothesis with a statistical sample size of one is a pretty darn inaccurate statistical hypothesis.

 

[SOrez]

The fed can prop up anything they want to.

 

[chariot13]

a statistical hypothesis with a statistical sample size of one is a pretty darn inaccurate statistical hypothesis.

Its statistically as accurate as anything that is currently 100% accurate. Its as close to being objective that a human is capable.

 

[DireWolf]

a statistical hypothesis with a statistical sample size of one is a pretty darn inaccurate statistical hypothesis.

What if it has a standard deviation of 1?

That means there's a 0.33 probability that the answer is zero, and the single observation never occurred.

I happen to know for a fact that 82% of statistics are made up on the spot, and that only 43% of them are true. With one data point, the correlation coefficient of this analysis is 0.914.

 

[ATCclears]

I agree with chariot13's assertion that the markets will drop again, and perhaps to as low as 7,000. Let me present different logic though (and not based on statistics):
- the markets have been artificially inflated by quantitative easing (QE)
- the big financial houses, hedge funds, blah blah blah will make money on the way down too by short sales and other products

I have no idea when this will happen, but I think we will begin the downward slide by mid March and bottoming by October, 2013.

Peter

 

[EZLivin]

OK, I'll play...

Short-term, it can go either way. But... Euro first, Yen second, then $US. That has been my operating thesis. When it is the $US's turn, and the $US gets whacked in international markets, AND when the sleeping public finally wakes up to that fact, cash will flee bonds and CDs. Cash will flow into metals, land, other tangibles, AND stocks.

 

[chariot13]

Jaws Theme Song - YouTube

jaws clip: "You're going to need a bigger boat" - YouTube

 

[Silver Fox]

Cash will flow into metals, land, other tangibles, AND stocks.

And guns, ammo, brass, lead, copper, powder, primers........

SF-

 

[JGRuby]

Ok Chariot - what is your occupation - an economist or banker or stock trader?
If you know this so well, if you arent one of those carreers - why not?
Very few people can predict the stock market with accuracy - might as well make some money of from it.

James Ruby

 

[chariot13]

Ok Chariot - what is your occupation - an economist or banker or stock trader?
If you know this so well, if you arent one of those carreers - why not?
Very few people can predict the stock market with accuracy - might as well make some money of from it.

James Ruby

The only time I step foot in a bank is when I go up to one of those pretty little bank teller girls & ask to trade them a piece of plastic with my name on it for some of those debt dollars she has. She gives me a chuckle. I then head to a few different stores, find some things of real value to trade those debt dollars for & after iv'e made it out of the parking lot with my loot. I chuckle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS9TKlqivlo

 

[EZLivin]

And guns, ammo, brass, lead, copper, powder, primers........

SF-

Those are "tangibles" too.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Let's see ... why or how could the stock market possibly be at 14k+ with the economy so obviously bad? Could it be the private cartel of bankers printing up literally trillions of dollars out of thin air, backed but nothing, to support their criminal friends and banks on Wall St? Nah!


“Every reliable technical tool is warning of major peaking action. This includes sentiment, momentum, classical chart patterns, and Elliott wave analysis.

Most of the rally in the stock market since 2009 can be chalked up to the Federal Reserve’s attempt to create a ‘wealth effect’ through higher stock market prices. This only exacerbates the downside risk. Why? The stock market no is longer a lead indicator for the economy. It is instead reflecting Fed manipulation. Pushing the stock market higher while the real economy languishes has resulted in another bubble.

The next leg down will not be a partial correction of the advance since the 2009 lows. It will be another major financial crisis. The worst is yet to come.” - Walter Zimmerman, Economist

 

[Burt Gummer]

I want to get one of those "GO AHEAD AND JUMP!!" t-shirts in anticipation of the stock brokers who will soon be sailing downward toward the street. Hopefully, those firms have windows that open or office furniture/chairs can be used to break the glass.

If you don't have REAL things, if you believe in paper-based PONZI garbage, you deserve what is coming - the 700 trillion dollar derivatives debt Tsunami. Wiping out everything faster than you can say Goldman Sachs.

 

[knuckle Head]

I want to get one of those "GO AHEAD AND JUMP!!" t-shirts in anticipation of the stock brokers who will soon be sailing downward toward the street. Hopefully, those firms have windows that open or office furniture/chairs can be used to break the glass.

If you don't have REAL things, if you believe in paper-based PONZI garbage, you deserve what is coming - the 700 trillion dollar derivatives debt Tsunami. Wiping out everything faster than you can say Goldman Sachs.

Yeah I would like one of those t-shirts as well, I use to have one these t-shirts years ago, but cannot remember what happened to it



I am going to have to get another to wear when I am talking to liberals