It's not at all complex. Building up an economy is much like building up a bunch of cardboard boxes or even concrete cinder blocks. You can only go so high before it topples over. To sit here and say we have more financial stability today than we did on July 19th 2007 is a joke. We are much worse off today than we were then, with a whole hell of alot more debt. We are 72 billion+ above our debt limit of 16.394 trillion. Thats all in the hole. Maybe you're thinking if you dig your economy into a hole deep enough you can cantilever the top from falling over, thats not how an economy works. Once we surpass our maximum potential in our economy, its gonna collapse just like it did before but i believe much worse.The financial/stock market is a complex, non-linear system. No one can say what will happen with it with 100% certainty (and anyone who claims it is a liar or misguided). Using that logic I could say what the weather will be like on June 12, 2014 because I know what the weather was on June 12, 2010.
The markets are rigged and being propped up by central banks, governments, high-frequency trading, and other criminal enterprises. They are propped up for the purpose of making the average no-nothing confident in the economy and giving investment bankers annual bonuses. They could crash tomorrow or they could go up another 20%. Does it really matter though? There is still high unemployment and 50 million people on food stamps.
Have you done this "statistical analysis"?The first time the dow ever went above 14,000 points was July 19th 2007, it peaked at 14,164.53 on October 9th, 2007. Less than a year and a half later the dow dropped down below 7000. If we use a statistical hypothesis test we're 100% certain to have a crash within the next 6 months. However since we have only been above 14,000 points for a span of 3 months ever, its likely gonna start happening much sooner & I believe it will be much worse than our last 'recession'. Just my opinion
What if it has a standard deviation of 1?a statistical hypothesis with a statistical sample size of one is a pretty darn inaccurate statistical hypothesis.
The only time I step foot in a bank is when I go up to one of those pretty little bank teller girls & ask to trade them a piece of plastic with my name on it for some of those debt dollars she has. She gives me a chuckle. I then head to a few different stores, find some things of real value to trade those debt dollars for & after iv'e made it out of the parking lot with my loot. I chuckle.Ok Chariot - what is your occupation - an economist or banker or stock trader?
If you know this so well, if you arent one of those carreers - why not?
Very few people can predict the stock market with accuracy - might as well make some money of from it.
Yeah I would like one of those t-shirts as well, I use to have one these t-shirts years ago, but cannot remember what happened to itI want to get one of those "GO AHEAD AND JUMP!!" t-shirts in anticipation of the stock brokers who will soon be sailing downward toward the street. Hopefully, those firms have windows that open or office furniture/chairs can be used to break the glass.
If you don't have REAL things, if you believe in paper-based PONZI garbage, you deserve what is coming - the 700 trillion dollar derivatives debt Tsunami. Wiping out everything faster than you can say Goldman Sachs.