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How many hours/days before the chaos starts?

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by edison bulb, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. edison bulb

    edison bulb Portland, OR Well-Known Member

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    Let's pretend The Big One happens 20 minutes from the time you read this post. The 5 powerful minutes of shaking end. You're bruised but otherwise okay. You've prepared for this event for years...you check your hip and breathe a sigh of relief because your cannon is right where it should be, and loaded with 230gr slugs too. Your water storage is massive, and thankfully those straps you invested in did what they were supposed to. And boy oh boy those canned soups sound good right about now!

    If you subscribe to the belief the major population centers (Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro) will fall into violent chaos, how long do you think it will take? How long will it last?

    Stores and such will be robbed within hours of the initial quake, and violence will occur as well. But I think it will taper off relatively quickly as all supplies from brick and mortar locations are rapidly drained.

    I think by day 2 or day 3 there will be the first signs of roving bandits stealing from other peoples' homes. Gunshots will be heard frequently, both from the bandits and people defending their families and supplies. I believe this situation will get worse and continue for many months before it stabilizes due to a military presence.

    Since I've been preparing, I have no need to leave. House is built to withstand the shaking. Supplies stored inside and outside property in different locations, the goal being to shelter in place to reduce being a target.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2015
  2. PiratePast40

    PiratePast40 Willamette Valley Well-Known Member

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    We've had earthquakes in this country in the past, and some sense or normality was restored fairly quickly. Yes, there will be some loss of power, collapsed bridges, broken gas mains, and road closures, but not statewide, or even a large area.

    And you're right, people should have short term necessities, but I don't foresee total chaos and anarchy breaking out. Our country does have some emergency plans that will take care of people short term.
     
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  3. PaulB47

    PaulB47 Hillsboro Well-Known Member

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    I don't think a quake will affect the valley cities very much, so your paranoid fantasy probably won't play out there (food will still come in, and water too with some breaks of course). However there is an interesting novel that came out about what might happen on the coast, and it is quite well researched and written. See this:
    http://www.amazon.com/Cascadias-Curse-J-A-Charnov-ebook/dp/B00K9SUN3C
     
  4. markl32

    markl32 North Plains Member

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    I think it depends a lot on what bridges go down. If most of the big ones go down it could be bad.
     
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  5. transittech

    transittech PDX Well-Known Member

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    Yup. Bridges still standing (or deemed safe to use by local authorities) will make or break this region. Hopefully all we have to worry about with respect to that is an earthquake.

    The military will be super quick to intervene in an emergency. Which could be worse than roaming bands of bad guys if they go house to house. Think Katrina and confiscation.
     
  6. IheartSig

    IheartSig Beaverton Diamond Supporter Diamond Supporter Platinum Supporter

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    Three days. I give any social structure 3 days to erode or start to erode after an event.
     
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  7. Mark W.

    Mark W. Silverton, OR Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    With Salem being 45 miles from Portland and Eugene another 65 or so a BIG quake will only get to chose one to really mess with and with 2 out of 3 able to respond I doubt we will have to big of mess. With the number of Armed Citizens willing to defend their homes and the mobilization of the Nat Guard. I figure I will still have to go into work within 3 days.
     
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  8. nehalemguy

    nehalemguy Vernonia Well-Known Member

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    Ha! What rock have you been hiding under? ;)

    Google up and read the executive summary for the Oregon Resilience Plan and scroll forward to the chart on page six under the heading "Key Findings". It shows a chart that gives estimates for restoring essential services to both the coast and valley. The estimates are given in months to YEARS in some cases. It will sober you up very quickly.

    For example, partial restoration of top priority highways in the valley is estimated at 6-12 months. When they say "valley" they mean the whole of the Willamette valley, not simply the PDX or Salem metro areas.

    Restoration of health care facilities on the coast are estimated at three years.

    You should read it just before bed. :D

    E
     
  9. Certaindeaf

    Certaindeaf SE Portland Well-Known Member

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    Lol. Of course all government schlubs will say that a hangnail will result in a thirty year societal-wide rebuilding requirement.
    They want your money.. now.
    If the grid went down though, (oopsie, someone drove their car into the wrong substation yada yada) and faceplantbook went down, that'd be a different story entirely. lol
     
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  10. etrain16

    etrain16 Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    You should probably read up a bit on the potential of a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake. Not only would it do significant damage to infrastructure, it would do so well inland, including the valley. If the big one they say will come some day hits, it will affect not just NW Oregon, it will affect everything from northern California up to British Columbia. Katrina was a relatively localized issue, the potential impact of an 8.5+ magnitude quake from the CSZ, could be devastating on a level that we've not experienced. In that sense, I think the OP's question could very well play out considering the resources available for such a massive area, will be very limited.
     
  11. erudne

    erudne The Pie Matrix PPL Say Sleeping W/Your Rifle Is A bad Thing? Bronze Supporter

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    There is a 2 lane bridge near me, it just went through a 30 year refurbishment and that took 7 months. The bridge was the Only way in and out of that area. Now consider the 100,000's of large trees that line the roads and highways of the Portland area, a mag. 8 quake will bring down a majority of them when the ground liquefies and they will land in the roads.
    Just another reason to keep several months of food on hand
     
  12. edison bulb

    edison bulb Portland, OR Well-Known Member

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    A full rupture of the CSZ will be much, much more sigificant than any earthquake we've ever had in modern history. It will affect 700 miles of coastline and approximately 250 miles inland.

    Portland alone is expected to be without running water or sewage for 6-10 months.
     
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  13. smurf hunter

    smurf hunter Auburn, WA Active Member

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    There are many factors that will determine how quickly and how badly rule of law disappears.
    You can't simply say within certain zip codes you have N minutes before chaos erupts.

    The severity and localization of an earthquake are probably the biggest factors.

    Generally, looting will take place in damaged areas first. If the local safeway still has power and is fully staffed, I wouldn't expect a horde of low information voters to rampage through just because there was a regional earthquake that gave them a good shake.

    But even if there is an 8.0+ and there is no emergency first responders, no power or utilities - there are elements of society that will begin to act as soon as they realize the state of things. These are classic criminals, with a history. We will not see soccer mom's punching each other over the last pack of ramen noodles on day 0.
     
  14. Martini_Up

    Martini_Up NW USA Well-Known Member

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    looting of liquor, guns, ammo, food, electronics will be within 24 hours... probably closer to 3.

    how soon total chaos begins depends on how much food the average apartment tenant has on their shelves.

    there will be a curfew as soon as there's anyone to enforce it. that will likely be a week,maybe more depending how regional the devastation.
     
  15. Garg

    Garg east of portland metro Hold my beer..... watch this Bronze Supporter

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    Even with a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake, it would still be fairly localized. In the inner city's, I would give it about 72 hours, or less. Things would get, fatal, pretty quick. In the out lying area's (where I live THANK GOD) it would take longer, and the locals, would tend to band up, and protect each other, as long as they share.
     
  16. lucifermonkey

    lucifermonkey Portland, OR Well-Known Member

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    You've got until nightfall before all hell breaks loose. :s0012:
     
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  17. DuneHopper

    DuneHopper Douglas County. Well-Known Member

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    Its going to depend as others have said on where you are. In smaller towns like where I there is good and bad there is authorities but even here not enough to control the bad side of the population. Since UCC around here has gotten worse not sure what it did to the dynamics but slowly more violence is creeping in. What that tells me is even in little towns evil is right around the corner literally. Good thing is that I live away from the major resources far enough that I am in the opposite direction many will head for. You can go 10 minutes in any direction and are in the wilderness for up to 100+ miles or more. Only reason we are even a town at all is the county seat is here. Other small towns around this county are 1/8 our size and resources are very limited in those area many stock up here because we are miles miles away from Grantspass or Eugene. In bigger cities I am sure Chaos would be quick in areas where gun control is and there are less armed people.
     
  18. KTM530XCW

    KTM530XCW Vancouver, WA Well-Known Member

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    FEMA will show up to confiscate your hand canon within 36 hrs. After that you can wait it out with your Surplus food or relocate to one of their concentration camps.
     
  19. KTM530XCW

    KTM530XCW Vancouver, WA Well-Known Member

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    Real threat to our country became apparent in Paris this week. Obama has convinced 90% of the world's that they will die from global warming and it is all the evil capitalist USA fault that CO2 exists.

    UN will soon demand that USA provide Trillions in relief to every other country for destroying their atmosphere. When we don't pay up, we will have 125+ country's ganging up to take us down. And by that point hilary well have disbanded out military (in the name of global peace) and we're going to be overrun.

    Cheers...
     
  20. smurf hunter

    smurf hunter Auburn, WA Active Member

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    That's very optimistic that FEMA could mobilize within 36 hours.
     
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