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however I interpreted the OPs post as to evacuation concerns due to other than non - natural circumstances.
Apologies, my OP should have been more specific.

You are correct, I was thinking of non-natural circumstances being the trigger for the evacuation, or a confluence of both natural and non-natural events. For example, breakdown of social order (for whatever reason) would likely compromise utilities, sanitation, power, and food supplies. If you live in a densely populated urban environment, staying in your home with no food, running water, power, or sanitation might be a greater concern than hitting the road and seeking refuge elsewhere. Alternatively, even if you're out in the boonies during the breakdown of social order, a wildfire would probably prompt you to risk running for the hills. Or if in this hypothetical breakdown of social order scenario gangs and factions begin going door-to-door heavily armed and in large numbers (30+) looking for food, water, guns, ammo, and other resources, you might determine it's safer to head out than outshoot an overwhelming force. The specific criteria will vary from one person to the next, which is why the first question is:

What circumstances would drive you to pack up and leave your home in this kind of situation?
 
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GWS

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This isn't meant to sound cheeky, but high water would just send us up the hill to another house. It's a 2 or 3 minute walk. Any other crises would be stay put and/or die in place.
Ditto
For myself, I have no particular place to bug out to and have zero desire to rot in a refugee camp. Between my rotten knees and dear wife's bad hip I doubt we would hike too far with any kind of load on our backs anyway. Might as well die where we're comfortable.:s0092:
 
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Apart from major wildfire or flood, I always perceive leaving your home and venturing on the road “somewhere” to be far more of a health risk than staying in your home. If things are so bad the roads are impassible, the time to run was long before “now.” And at this point you would be seemingly giving up the 1 good thing you have going for you if you left (all the supplies at your house).

I think people get caught up in these what-if survival conversations, which can be fine as thought exercises, but turn unrealistic fast.
 

Librarian

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At age 75 and getting around with a cane, all be it a very sexy cane, Im staying home unless it was a fire. Evacuating by myself on foot would not be workable. Floods aren't an issue. The neighborhood is about 60 houses, all armed, one street way in, far enough from town to not be on anyone's obvious victim list. Too high for flooding to be a problem. If a fire threatened I would go stay with friends. If a mob did make it here I'd defend myself in my home from inside my home. As would, undoubtedly, all my neighbors. But I really doubt some sort of mob would happen. A fire is a more likely possibility since neighborhood is heavily wooded and contiguous with McDonald Forest. Which is why we have cougars and bears. Of course, a mega 9 earthquake could also be a possibility, and would be a major bummer.
This is close to our situation as well; as to city dwellers, well, they're probably screwed.
 
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Q: When is the best time to plant an apple tree? A: 20 yrs ago. Q: When is the second best time to plant an apple tree? A: Today.

If one can see the storm coming, then start planning to avoid it…today. How important is that lifestyle, nice home, consumer debt, car payment…Duramax payment and boat payment got you enslaved to the high density population center? Well, sorry….however:

A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences
—Reference withheld because NWFA rules
 
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Some random thoughts :

Good shoes / boots and socks....
"Non-tactical " clothing / ruck / gear.....
I say this because it may be best to look like everyone else / not stand out....

As for a weapon...
A favorite quote comes to mind here :
"Remember though , your best weapon is between your ears and under your scalp - provided it's loaded."
I am not saying to not have a weapon...
Just that your job here , from the sound of the OP is to survive...not fight or conquer.....
Bring a weapon or three...
Just remember that defense is more than fighting.
Situational awareness...Avoidance and Breaking Contact will be your friends here.

If you have to fight...hit hard...hit fast and hit with no regrets....

A terrain feature between you and any enemies is a good idea....

Light , sound and at times movement can be your worst enemy....
Andy


Best also have some water and (at least) some ration bars on you, or you’ll be done after two days of heavy hoofin’.
 

Mikej

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I didn't read every post so. My physical situation wouldn't allow me to get far enough away from my abode to be any better off than if I were to stay. This is where food, water, guns and ammunition are. Even IF I were of robust body and mind likely I'd be worse off if I left. Thinking about this I picture myself, and Wifey hopefully, hunkered down inside what's left of our home. Backs against a wall, surrounded by what guns seem appropriate, all the ammo and mags within close reach. If the wilding has started we'll be there waiting for the Mf'ers.
 
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I didn't read every post so. My physical situation wouldn't allow me to get far enough away from my abode to be any better off than if I were to stay. This is where food, water, guns and ammunition are. Even IF I were of robust body and mind likely I'd be worse off if I left. Thinking about this I picture myself, and Wifey hopefully, hunkered down inside what's left of our home. Backs against a wall, surrounded by what guns seem appropriate, all the ammo and mags within close reach. If the wilding has started we'll be there waiting for the Mf'ers.

THAT’S the spirit! Make the bastiges pay with their blood!

:s0069:
 
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I could see biking out of an area that has a specific localized problem (tsunami, volcano) to an area that has been set up to provide aid. You can travel 100 miles in a day on a bike, even with moderate gear and going slow. And if the ground is too broken up, a decent bike is easy to walk next to you or carry over a rockslide/fissure/stream.

But there has to be someplace to go. Unless you just need to get to high ground and wait a day for the water to recede.
 
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I posted this a couple years ago and think it might 'resonate' in this thread:

Recently I responded to a PM about this issue and the following is a theory I came up with regard to the bug in/bug out controversy. Mostly it was a case of writing as I was thinking as opposed to an edited composition AFTER thinking about it but read it and tell me if this has any merit or just stone craziness!

I am certainly no expert (and there are probably a LOT less than claim to be) but if I had to illustrate it I would create a scale from one to ten with the most urban life environment at one and and the most rural at ten. I believe in an unspecified SHTF scenario the closer one is to a rural environment the better the chances are for survival and not leaving the domicile would be a big part of it - IF certain natural resources were close and available such as wood and water. This is also factoring in an assumption of greater safety in a rural environment due to fewer people who possibly have more of a 'groupthink' mentality due to the lifestyle and probably greater longevity of people living in the environment as opposed to urban where people tend to come and go much more frequently.

The longer one lives in an area the more one has 'vested' in it and less willingness to leave. Therefore if one is at 'one' or 'two' on the scale then they most likely are surrounded by concrete and buildings with few natural resources, a less rooted community with possibly unstable or dangerous people, leaving would almost be a necessity to ensure any chance of survival. Now the closer one is to the center or the larger numbers on the scale means one is most likely in a safer environment with resources close at hand and a much larger area to move about in to acquire the resources with less competition - AND being able to return to one's domicile to utilize the resources. So while those in the low end of the scale have little choice BUT to leave those at the greater end have less need to leave with more reasons to stay.

As I said before familiarity and awareness of one's environment are a powerful influence and I firmly believe those of us on the greater end of the scale have the greater advantages and influence to stay put. This is all just a theory (more like a hypothesis) but there is evidence to suggest I might 'have' something. - Kind of like Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.
 

Longwalkhome

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Maslow is pretty sharp and had it right that safety and security is the foundation we build our lives on. Survival kicks in when the foundation crumbles. We are seeing our civilization fall before our eyes and of course the talk is where to run and how to get there.

Everybody has their visions when they think things out.
 
Might as well die where we're comfortable
that's more likely the older/more debilitated we get. Maybe Soylent Green patties for some more vigorous proles would be as glorious as will be possible. Sorry to mix metaphores.
 
Funny, I'm not a hard core prepper like so many here, but nine years ago I moved from SoCal to the top of a ridge in eastern Washington (no flood risk), in the middle of a ten acre field with green lawns around my buildings (no real fire risk) with defensible fields of fire should anyone decide that my sparsely populated part of town is worth marauding (it isn't). I'm not going anywhere, but then again I don't think I'll have many unwelcome guests because the cost-benefit ratio of "liberating" goods here is so bad. Too few homes and too many folks who are too willing to defend what's theirs to make it a good bet.

If you're really a prepper, the time to plant an apple tree is now - as in, you can pretend you're okay in an urban setting, or you can vastly improve your circumstances by downsizing (if necessary) and moving to safer and more defensible locations. IMHO, pretending to prep in Seattle, Portland or environs is a myth.
 
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Funny, I'm not a hard core prepper like so many here, but nine years ago I moved from SoCal to the top of a ridge in eastern Washington (no flood risk), in the middle of a ten acre field with green lawns around my buildings (no real fire risk) with defensible fields of fire should anyone decide that my sparsely populated part of town is worth marauding (it isn't). I'm not going anywhere, but then again I don't think I'll have many unwelcome guests because the cost-benefit ratio of "liberating" goods here is so bad. Too few homes and too many folks who are too willing to defend what's theirs to make it a good bet.

If you're really a prepper, the time to plant an apple tree is now - as in, you can pretend you're okay in an urban setting, or you can vastly improve your circumstances by downsizing (if necessary) and moving to safer and more defensible locations. IMHO, pretending to prep in Seattle, Portland or environs is a myth.
Prepping has different levels of seriousness and durations of time.

Natural disaster
Civil Unrest
War
Etc.

1 week
1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
More…

Cities have a much higher ratio of people to food supply, but even people living more rurally still often rely heavily on modern grocery stores. How many people actually grow food or raise livestock sufficiently that they sustain themselves by it year round and year after year - not many. I also consider climate. Some areas of the country are under snow for 4 months of the year. In modern society that’s survivable, without electric or gas heat and cooking that gets a lot more difficult in a hurry.

As a city dweller, if my family could eat and drink for 6 months with no re-supply. That will probably outlast more than 75% of the population. If things aren’t getting back to normal after 6 months there is something so significant happening that the country has collapsed.
 
Prepping has different levels of seriousness and durations of time.

Natural disaster
Civil Unrest
War
Etc.

1 week
1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
More…

Cities have a much higher ratio of people to food supply, but even people living more rurally still often rely heavily on modern grocery stores. How many people actually grow food or raise livestock sufficiently that they sustain themselves by it year round and year after year - not many. I also consider climate. Some areas of the country are under snow for 4 months of the year. In modern society that’s survivable, without electric or gas heat and cooking that gets a lot more difficult in a hurry.

As a city dweller, if my family could eat and drink for 6 months with no re-supply. That will probably outlast more than 75% of the population. If things aren’t getting back to normal after 6 months there is something so significant happening that the country has collapsed.
Fair enough. You have fuel to cook food and warm your home for 6 months? You have water for six months? When folks see that you're feeding your family and warming your home, you can defend your stocks?

No need to respond, but that's all a pretty tall order in an urban setting.
 
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Fair enough. You have fuel to cook food and warm your home for 6 months? You have water for six months? When folks see that you're feeding your family and warming your home, you can defend your stocks?

No need to respond, but that's all a pretty tall order in an urban setting.
Good clarification questions. Low profile would be key no matter where you lived. A hungry neighbor in a rural setting can be a problem just as much as a hungry neighbor in the city, though the total number is different. Climate plays a big role, Seattle is only really cold a few months of the year and it doesn’t get freezing very often. Different parts of the year have different inherent needs. You can get water off your roof a good portion of the year, water storage isn’t very difficult. A lot of shelf stable food doesn’t actually need cooking, heating can make it more palatable, true.

I think we can both agree that the biggest danger would be other people wanting what you have. Seems like the only way to reduce that danger is reduce your interactions or how viewable you are to other people. Ideally you’d have a community of like minded people in a small vicinity who have all prepared similarly but familiarity breeds contempt so there is a danger in that as well.
 
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