Firearm sales declining?

[solv3nt]

yes but government does not include energy and food into inflation equation- too volatile.

CPI is an index to measure a benchmark.

Expenditure items are classified in the CPI into more than 200 categories, arranged into 8 major groups. This item structure is unique to the CPI and the categories themselves do not correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), other price indexes, or other statistics.

Eight major groups and examples of categories in each follow:

• Food and beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
• Housing (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, utilities, bedroom furniture)
• Apparel (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, baby clothes, shoes, jewelry)
• Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
• Medical care (prescription drugs, medical equipment and supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
• Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, park and museum admissions)
• Education and communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories)
• Other goods and services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses)

Additionally, for analytical purposes, the CPI is also divided into food, energy, and all items less food and energy. The CPI for all items less food and energy gets considerable attention as a measure of underlying core inflation, which is not subject to the volatile movements of food and energy prices. A third structure separates the CPI into commodities and services, with commodities further divided into durables and nondurables. All three structures are comprehensive, with the subcomponents in each structure aggregating to the all items index.

 

[MikeGMU108]

CPI is an index to measure a benchmark.

Expenditure items are classified in the CPI into more than 200 categories, arranged into 8 major groups. This item structure is unique to the CPI and the categories themselves do not correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), other price indexes, or other statistics.

Eight major groups and examples of categories in each follow:

• Food and beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
• Housing (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, utilities, bedroom furniture)
• Apparel (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, baby clothes, shoes, jewelry)
• Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
• Medical care (prescription drugs, medical equipment and supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
• Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, park and museum admissions)
• Education and communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories)
• Other goods and services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses)

Additionally, for analytical purposes, the CPI is also divided into food, energy, and all items less food and energy. The CPI for all items less food and energy gets considerable attention as a measure of underlying core inflation, which is not subject to the volatile movements of food and energy prices. A third structure separates the CPI into commodities and services, with commodities further divided into durables and nondurables. All three structures are comprehensive, with the subcomponents in each structure aggregating to the all items index.

Ok- but if you look at prices- and inflation rate of 8% something is not right. Nothing is cheaper and food and energy where I live is up more than 8%. been through this before- multiple times. We are de-valueing the dollar at record pace. That is what happens when you print trillions of dollars.

 

[BattleReadyBunny]

Totally agree, I help operate a FFL in Washington. We had some serious anti gun bills come through at the beginning of the year and become law recently. As always, sales were amazing during this time of craziness. However, sales are down prior to this panic buying, I am going to use October and September of 2022. As sales do increase during November and December due to the holidays. Sales are lower than the fall of 2022.

This is in part for us in Washington, the inability to purchase certain firearms or components.

Another reason is, people have already maxed out their credit cards due to panic buying during the span of the panic buying.

However, we have many regulars and loyal customers. These customers help keep the lights on by coming in every week and buying a box or 2 of ammo. Even though they do not shoot this ammo, just store it. They do this to help support us, in any way they can. As ammo is not regulated and it's a consumable.
During these times, it's important to support your local mom and pa FFL's, as these are part of many cuts that eventually kill the mom and pa FFL business. Even Prior to working in the firearms industry as an engineer or working at an FFL. I had a rule. If I walked into the mom and pa gun store, to look. I never leave empty handed. Whether it was buying a mag, or a box of ammo.

 

[RVTECH]

Personally I believe this is essentially the 'master plan' with the politicians - IE to force an eventual reduction of gun sales overall through a variety of means; mostly by the use of draconic laws and regulations.

I don't believe they ever considered all out bans necessarily but to reduce overall sales by reducing (or eliminating) certain models, styles, accessories etc. which will result in fewer gun dealers and retail store sales with the hope of reducing overall interest and demand.

Eliminate convenient ways to buy guns. Force LGS closures to make people have to travel farther to buy them. Seems like it's already having an effect.

 

[MikeGMU108]

U.S. gun sales have almost doubled since the Covid-19 pandemic started, rising from an average of 1 million guns sold monthly in 2019 to nearly 2 million a month in 2020, according to data from the FBI and Small Arms Analytics, a firearms research and consulting company based in South Carolina.
Just had a feast- sorta the way markets sort things out.

 

[Longwalkhome]

CPI is an index to measure a benchmark.

Expenditure items are classified in the CPI into more than 200 categories, arranged into 8 major groups. This item structure is unique to the CPI and the categories themselves do not correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), other price indexes, or other statistics.

Eight major groups and examples of categories in each follow:

• Food and beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
• Housing (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, utilities, bedroom furniture)
• Apparel (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, baby clothes, shoes, jewelry)
• Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
• Medical care (prescription drugs, medical equipment and supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
• Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, park and museum admissions)
• Education and communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories)
• Other goods and services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses)

Additionally, for analytical purposes, the CPI is also divided into food, energy, and all items less food and energy. The CPI for all items less food and energy gets considerable attention as a measure of underlying core inflation, which is not subject to the volatile movements of food and energy prices. A third structure separates the CPI into commodities and services, with commodities further divided into durables and nondurables. All three structures are comprehensive, with the subcomponents in each structure aggregating to the all items index.

I am lame at the way they figure out inflation, do they figure it year over year or have a base year they go from? Point being if it's year over year then inflation went up 8% last year and another 8% on top of that this year. Kinda a compound inflation rate.

If they have a base year they measure from then they just measure the rise and fall of prices.

Anyone have an idea ?

 

[solv3nt]

I am lame at the way they figure out inflation, do they figure it year over year or have a base year they go from? Point being if it's year over year then inflation went up 8% last year and another 8% on top of that this year. Kinda a compound inflation rate.

If they have a base year they measure from then they just measure the rise and fall of prices.

Anyone have an idea ?

I'm not sure what they use as the basis. I believe they maintain current inflation and also inflation for previous years. It does not compound on itself. For example, you don't consider a 5% increase on the S&P 500 a compound rate; it's a benchmark.

I am not doubting people feeling the pinch. The median household income is around $70k per year. The top 10% of income earners is around $170k, which will put your one standard deviation somewhere around $40k to $100k for the majority of households.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Re gun sales, an interesting graphic. 2021 was banner year, imports aren't even shown for 2021.

 

[MikeGMU108]

I am lame at the way they figure out inflation, do they figure it year over year or have a base year they go from? Point being if it's year over year then inflation went up 8% last year and another 8% on top of that this year. Kinda a compound inflation rate.

If they have a base year they measure from then they just measure the rise and fall of prices.

Anyone have an idea ?

I think it does compound. Let us make the math easy. A product sells for a $1. It goes up 10% to $1.10. The next year it goes up 10% so you multiply $1.10 by .10 And come up with .11 This is the amount of inflation for second year resulting in a total of $1.10+ $.11=$1.21 The 1 cent is result of last years inflation.. I think that is compounding.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I think it does compound. Let us make the math easy. A product sells for a $1. It goes up 10% to $1.10. The next year it goes up 10% so you multiply $1.10 by .10 And come up with .11 This is the amount of inflation for second year resulting in a total of $1.10+ $.11=$1.21 The 1 cent is result of last years inflation.. I think that is compounding.

I get confused some because I have lived too long.

Thanks.

 

[raftman]

Lately I've seen a mix of how busy gun stores are. Some still seem quite busy. I was at Oregon Rifleworks a couple times over the last month and they were hopping on both occasions, there wasn't a line out of the door and halfway down the block like there was around 11/22, but far from being a ghost town. Other shops… one is kinda left wondering how they even stay in business (unfortunately some haven't).

 

[Longwalkhome]

I'm not sure what they use as the basis. I believe they maintain current inflation and also inflation for previous years. It does not compound on itself. For example, you don't consider a 5% increase on the S&P 500 a compound rate; it's a benchmark.

I am not doubting people feeling the pinch. The median household income is around $70k per year. The top 10% of income earners is around $170k, which will put your one standard deviation somewhere around $40k to $100k for the majority of households.

Where I get confused some is looking back at what things did cost.

My house was built in 1978 and sold for the then princely sum of $28k

Neighbors hose just sold for $390k and is a little better house than mine so let's say $365k for mine.

$337k in 45 years so if my math is close that's about $13k a year it's gone up?

So it makes it hard for me to understand inflation rates because I can't figure what base year they use.

I am ignorant I guess.

 

[CamoDeafie]

The one thing that has definitely gotten "relatively" cheaper is labor, especially with stagnant wages overall. Everything getting expensive except labor because companies would rather lay off and export jobs or replace with AI/automation than to raise wages at the same % as CPI

 

[solv3nt]

The one thing that has definitely gotten "relatively" cheaper is labor, especially with stagnant wages overall. Everything getting expensive except labor because companies would rather lay off and export jobs or replace with AI/automation than to raise wages at the same % as CPI

One thing I was hoping Trump would do was to bring manufacturing back to the US. It's much cheaper to outsource and buy garbage that doesn't last from other countries.

I disagree that labor is getting cheaper, isn't the minimum wage in Oregon pushing $15/hr?

 

[CamoDeafie]

One thing I was hoping Trump would do was to bring manufacturing back to the US. It's much cheaper to outsource and buy garbage that doesn't last from other countries.

I disagree that labor is getting cheaper, isn't the minimum wage in Oregon pushing $15/hr?

But has wages increased overall, including skilled trades (CNC operators, technicians, factory work, fabrication, things like that) in keeping with inflation? I'd say no not at all....

 

[CamoDeafie]

I mean; the minimum is being raised, to the point that it doesn't make sense for people to invest in schooling for skilled trades if they aren't gonna be paid/compensated at a significantly better rate than a gas station attendant or a burger flipper, at least in Oregon.

 

[MTpockets]

References.

Consumer Price Indexes Overview : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Indexes Overview

www.bls.gov

Producer Price Index (PPI) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer Price Index (PPI)

www.bls.gov

Real Earnings Summary - 2024 M03 Results

www.bls.gov

 

[Hueco]

References.

View attachment 1427231

Consumer Price Indexes Overview : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Indexes Overview

www.bls.gov

Producer Price Index (PPI) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Producer Price Index (PPI)

www.bls.gov

Real Earnings Summary - 2024 M03 Results

www.bls.gov

Don't forget about the Lip Stick Index and the Stripper Index.

 

[CamoDeafie]

@solv3nt , personal anecdote; when I entered NTID for CNC /traditional machining course, i was told I could get a job as one for GM, at $20-25/ hour starting wage.. back in 2002. Over 20 years ago. Now, I'm looking at the same job, for GM.. it's $23 / hour.

 

[MTpockets]

Ref: Post #118

Covered in the PPI Softwood Production.

Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber (WPU0811) from Jan 1947 to Feb 2024 about wood, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org