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The financial collapse, does this mean the S will finally HTF?

Good god, we will finally get to know if you can survive with only a 22!


I don't think shtf in terms of end of the worlds type of thing. World is a big place and after al life will be business as usual for 3rd world countries. But from financial standpoint in USA with expanding federal deficits and fed debt growing at astronomical pace coupled with artificially stimulated economy when the correction after longest running economic expansion happens the bottom will fall out of the sh1t barrel that politicians created.
 
Watch out, vagueness is nigh! lol. Vagueness Is Coming - TV Tropes

One thing I've learned is that MOST media articles are lies and propaganda for those who have an agenda to make people behave in a certain way. We are constantly being manipulated with fear and greed, artificial shortages and sales, worry and doubt. It's all a BIG CON.

Best thing to do is just go about your business, behave prudently, take calculated risks and don't over extend in any direction.

As for the advice about debt, if the end is nigh, WTF cares? As long as you're not going to be evicted, and can get your necessary supplies, it would be better to have $50,000 in goods (vehicles, guns, ammo, foods, generator, medical supplies, etc.) and commensurate unsecured debt (for which would be impossible to collect, and in the "end" your credit score is meaningless) versus zero debt and zero goods. Right?!

And, also, if you buy $50,000 in goods with today's dollar and stock them, and then the end comes and the dollar becomes worth say 1/10th, it would be easy to repay that as it would only be $5,000 in "value." Or if the dollar becomes "worthless" you can easily repay it with discarded $100 bills. "Here ya go, here's that $50,000 I borrowed..." Meanwhile you're sitting on useful goods.

And for unsecured loans, the lender is toast, really. Nobody from a credit card company or the student loan folks are going to come knocking for their cash, which will be presumably worthless anyway...
 
What the fed is doing with the repo funds is less worrisome than what they are doing with interest rates - and those are symptoms (effects), not causes.

If you want to look at the state of the economy, look at employment, consumer confidence (consumer purchases/et. al. drives two thirds of the economy), manufacturing and some bellweathers like trucking (which is either laying people off or otherwise preparing for a downturn in the next 6 to 18 months - Celadon bankruptcy biggest of nearly 800 truck company failures this year ). And then there are all the businesses hurt by the trade war, directly or indirectly - which, even if it stops tomorrow, has already bankrupted a lot of farmers and smaller businesses, from which they will not recover anytime soon no matter what the trade market does.

As for employment - yes, it looks good now, but know these things:

1) There are a LOT of people on the sidelines, just waiting to get back into the job market. This is one reason why the economy is not heating up. The unemployment rate is still higher than the official rate because there are people on the sidelines who are coming back into the market.

2) Wages are not going up as much as expect, and going up slowly. This is in part because employers are resisting increases, in part because we are now a world market and we are increasingly competing with employees overseas.

3) The unemployment rate will be one of the last things where there will be an increase (possibly sudden and with increasing momentum) because of a recession. When you see the unemployment rate increase, it will be too late - we will be in a recession.

Manufacturing is down for the fourth straight month - which means there is less demand.

Consumer demand increased less than expected last month; 0.2% instead of 0.5%. This may be due to timing of the holiday weekend, it may not. If the rest of the year is also lower than expected, then worry.

At the very least, all of this is adding up. I am not worried - because of my job, I will probably be working past the time I planned to retire in 8 months - I will probably work another 18 months, or not - I will just have to see what happens and how I feel about it at the time.

Right now I would retire yesterday if my family's finances and job situations were as good as mine - but I need to be that buffer just in case - so I keep working.

But the client's HQ has announced they will be laying office 10K people, and they already laid off 900 plant workers earlier this year. A competitor just announced they will lay off 2K workers. I could go on and on - there is a lot of this kind of news that one should pay attention to.

If I get laid off tomorrow, I would get 26 weeks of UI benes, which would take me almost to full retirement age for SSI, which is when I planned on retiring.

Due to my age, I probably would not get another job in my profession - I work one of the few places where age doesn't matter, but everywhere else, a 66 year old software developer is looked at as just plain too old, likely to retire soon, whereas someone in their 30s is more likely to be up to date on the tech (or quicker to learn and more adaptable), not likely to retire soon - important factors when it takes a s/w dev 6 months to get up to speed on the tech stack and codebase when coming into a new job.
 
So where does a fellow that owns a 400K home and two paid for vehicles, 6 figures in savings and zero CC debt fit in here. Should he be worried? WTF over if we're not in good shape now we never will be. Kick back, put on some good tunes, have a drink, smoke a bowl and let 'er buck.
 
As for fed debt and deficit. Fed debt becomes a problem when it affects interest rates and funds availability due to the gov having to borrow money that there is less for the private sector to borrow, and when they do borrow, they pay higher interest rates.

Right now, just the opposite is the problem; due to interest rates being so low and the fed flooding the market with funds (in part by buying debt), the private sector is taking on huge amounts of debt. The problem is when they have to pay on that debt and/or balance their books.

Look to the drivers of the economy. Consumer spending/confidence, manufacturing (which drives jobs), retail spending (including imports, which is suffering due to tariffs) and employment. Then there are the underlying indicators - such as trucking, freight and agriculture.
 
Due to my age, I probably would not get another job in my profession - I work one of the few places where age doesn't matter, but everywhere else, a 66 year old software developer is looked at as just plain too old, likely to retire soon, whereas someone in their 30s is more likely to be up to date on the tech (or quicker to learn and more adaptable), not likely to retire soon - important factors when it takes a s/w dev 6 months to get up to speed on the tech stack and codebase when coming into a new job.

We are very close to being in the same boat; started programming with punch cards and Fortran back in 1977.

My "last" big delivery is an Android app for a long time customer. I've been blessed, but I see a road ahead job-wise that favors the young ones. My plans is wrap it up in 2020 and learn a new trade, like baiting hooks, walking dogs and joining the Elks if they'll have me :)
 
So where does a fellow that owns a 400K home and two paid for vehicles, 6 figures in savings and zero CC debt fit in here. Should he be worried? WTF over if we're not in good shape now we never will be. Kick back, put on some good tunes, have a drink, smoke a bowl and let 'er buck.

Does that fellow own that home? Or does the bank own half?

I own half of a property that is in the $500K range, three paid for vehicles, zero CC debt (month to month) and about $4-500K in retirement funds. I have a 6 figure income that is likely to continue for another year or two, then about $30K in SSI benes alone when I retire.

But I also have family that is unemployed and I am their backup, in more ways than one - to the tune of several hundred thousand $ over the last couple of decades. I am not going to let my only child go homeless - if I have to I pay their mortgage, their medical bills, the car repair bills - to keep their heads above water - I will.

Do not underestimate the ability of life to throw a curve ball at you.
 
I have $0 in auto loans, and $0 in credit card debt. Should I be worried?

Any by the way, you all can keep your ancient, old fashioned, grampa 45 acp. I'll go with the modern new, state-of-the-art 9mm Luger. That, and the even newer and more modern .22lr. :)
Actually, Wikipedia says that the 9mm luger was invented in 1902, and the 45acp was invented in 1904...
 
You have less to worry over than a person who payed $500,000 for a home putting $300,000 down ( or having that much equity), Owes only$5.000- $10,000 on a $40,000 truck. That person will have the banks working them over hard, they'll look at you and go ...meh..and walk away. The best thing you can be is debt free, 2nd best is up to be sunk in to yer eyeballs. They can't touch the first person and don't want to touch the 2nd person (assuming there is no cash or equity sitting someplace else).


True words.
 
ive never had a credit card

That's quite an accomplishment, wish I could say the same about myself.

Right now though, for me, having a credit card that's kicks back 2% on every single purchase keeps me up with inflation if nothing else. I pay it off at the end of each billing period. I have no idea why the credit card company offers this but hey, not my problem.
 
That's quite an accomplishment, wish I could say the same about myself.

Right now though, for me, having a credit card that's kicks back 2% on every single purchase keeps me up with inflation if nothing else. I pay it off at the end of each billing period. I have no idea why the credit card company offers this but hey, not my problem.


They charge merchants 3 1/2% for the rights to card servicing so even if they pay you 2% they still make money for doing pretty much nothing since the infrastructure is set up already.
 
Cramer 2007:

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Cramer net worth today ~$100 million...

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To those not familiar secondary markets are used sell produced mortgages and commercial loans to other banks and government to generate liquid funds which are in turn used to produce more loans. Liquidity also comes from customer deposits and stock market operations (usually only small fraction of profits)

Gloom and doom articles every day at Zerohedge. I'm wondering if customer deposits in banks are drying up because everyone put their $ in the stock market and other assets? I'll bet when the stock market starts falling, the banks will be flooded with cash as people sell their other assets and want that FDIC protection.

Melt down will occur eventually - it always does. Assuming it's not a total collapse, it will be a buying opportunity, for those with money available, right?
 

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