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Why would you feel stupid? It will mean the social distancing worked, that's all.

"The argument I made in my previous post, that's even more true today, is that all the numbers showing how hospitalizations (the key leading indicator of where we are in the cycle of COVID-19's viral arc) were declining before Governor Brown's March 23 order."
From Prof. Hinkley's blog Apr. 8 2020.

Screen+Shot+2020-04-08+at+10.19.54+AM.png
Graph courtesy of Oregon Health Authority.

If the number of cases was dropping over a week before the Governor's order then the effects of social distancing wouldn't really show up for another two weeks after. So that's at least three weeks of case decline without the benefit social distancing. I know where I work and live people didn't take seriously social distancing till after the order was given and many still don't.
 
"The argument I made in my previous post, that's even more true today, is that all the numbers showing how hospitalizations (the key leading indicator of where we are in the cycle of COVID-19's viral arc) were declining before Governor Brown's March 23 order."
From Prof. Hinkley's blog Apr. 8 2020.

View attachment 681620
Graph courtesy of Oregon Health Authority.

If the number of cases was dropping over a week before the Governor's order then the effects of social distancing wouldn't really show up for another two weeks after. So that's at least three weeks of case decline without the benefit social distancing. I know where I work and live people didn't take seriously social distancing till after the order was given and many still don't.
The decline could be from a number of causes. More people were starting to take it seriously before Kate made her play. That is just one reason. Kate will surely take credit for the decline and the media will buy into it.
 
"The argument I made in my previous post, that's even more true today, is that all the numbers showing how hospitalizations (the key leading indicator of where we are in the cycle of COVID-19's viral arc) were declining before Governor Brown's March 23 order."
From Prof. Hinkley's blog Apr. 8 2020.

View attachment 681620
Graph courtesy of Oregon Health Authority.

If the number of cases was dropping over a week before the Governor's order then the effects of social distancing wouldn't really show up for another two weeks after. So that's at least three weeks of case decline without the benefit social distancing. I know where I work and live people didn't take seriously social distancing till after the order was given and many still don't.
This graph does not represent cases. It shows "covid-like visits" to the ER. A covid-like visit is not a hospitalization, nor is it a confirmed case. Confirmed cases were still rising at a rate of 19% per day with a doubling time of 3.5 days on 4/1. If you are going to argue that cases were declining, at least show appropriate data.

"Professor Hinkley" is an anonymous blogger who doesn't even have the cajones to publish under his real name. Not my idea of a credible source.
 
Most of my office mates were working from home before the stay at home order, and the client/employer had ordered plant shut downs before that. People were paying attention and voluntarily staying at home. The orders came when some idiots ignored what was going on so the gov decided they needed to force some to stay away.
 
This graph does not represent cases. It shows "covid-like visits" to the ER. A covid-like visit is not a hospitalization, nor is it a confirmed case.

True, covid -like cases are not a hospitalization. But where do the people come from that end up being hospitalized if not through the ER first. So how can there be a rise in "confirmed cases" when there's a decline in ER visits?

As far as Hinkley is concerned, I was introduced to him in the link given. I have no clue who or what he is but to me he makes more sense than the "sky is falling" "we're all gonna die" posts on this thread.

I don't deny that the virus is real and that the mortality to certain groups of people is something to be concerned about but the reaction to it and fear mongering from too many individuals, media and politicians is just over the top. This virus is and has been politicized and this is doing far more damage to peoples lives than the virus. The economic impact of this politicization will have much longer and lasting effects.
 
he makes more sense than the "sky is falling" "we're all gonna die" posts on this thread.
Which posts are you referring to? I've read every single post on here, and I haven't seen a single one that fits your description.

However, I have seen a multitude of posts from people making fun of others who are being cautious or were preparing, claim this whole thing is a hoax and a lie, and claim that this is no more infectious or deadly than the flu. Over and over and over ad nauseum.

Without supporting facts, if course, just hyperbole.
 
True, covid -like cases are not a hospitalization. But where do the people come from that end up being hospitalized if not through the ER first. So how can there be a rise in "confirmed cases" when there's a decline in ER visits?
I'm only going by the numbers published on the OHA web page. It seems to me if you are going to accept their numbers for covid-like visits, then there is no reason not to accept their numbers for confirmed positives.

The graph you showed is difficult to interpret because the scale makes the number of covid-like visits impossible to determine, and is probably deliberately intended to make the number look small. That being said, ER visits are only a portion of people testing positive. Some could have been through contact tracing. Some people were diagnosed at doctors' offices or clinics, and urgent cares. Others were tested at their place of residence, such as the Veteran's Home. Some were health care workers.

I don't deny that the virus is real and that the mortality to certain groups of people is something to be concerned about but the reaction to it and fear mongering from too many individuals, media and politicians is just over the top. This virus is and has been politicized and this is doing far more damage to peoples lives than the virus. The economic impact of this politicization will have much longer and lasting effects.
This thread is in the Preparedness and Survival forum. It started as a place for people to share news and information about the outbreak in China. Some members expressed concern because they were either at high risk or had family members who were, and began to share ideas on prevention, sanitation, etc.. Things became somewhat contentious when other members began to ridicule and denigrate those concerns, and throw around terms like "panic" and such. The hyperbole seems to be coming mostly from people who want to minimize the situation. I don't recall anyone posting that we're all going to die or that the world is coming to an end, except those who want to ridicule the "preppers."

Nobody in this forum makes government policy, nor does anyone posting here have the power to change what is happening. All these arguments seem rather pointless. I'd like to see this thread get back to news sharing, and what we can do to help each other deal with the situation as we find it.
 
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That drop in deaths starting at week 10 of this year and continuing to drop over weeks 11 and 12 was before the social distancing directive started on week 13.

What we see here are pneumonia and flu deaths being classes as COVID-19. These are people in poor health who would have died anyway during that time frame.

Any cites to back this up? I think New York might disagree with you.
 
Interesting. From the google maps photo it looks like they were already burying stuff there from last summer or earlier. There is a similar pit (located just behind the square building in the photo). I wonder what they were burying there before?

Dropped pin
Near Hart Island, The Bronx, NY

Edit: according to wiki it was used for burying unclaimed bodies before:
DFB743BD-6861-48B3-9D79-B3A25F1DE82C.jpeg
 
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