Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[Unicykle]

prep time is over.. panic buying has set in. costco.com, mountainhouse.com... checkem out and see for yourself..

i just got back from walmart and the shelves are fully stocked not one thing was "out" and nobody was panic buying.

 

[Unicykle]

Depends on how soon you need access to your money and type of investments. Speaking of 401ks, If you can ride it out, you will be better off when the market recovers than paying penalties or moving it to a stable fund where it will just sit. Trying to time market corrections is not a good strategy and you usually lose out on the upswing.

I have 20-25 years until I need my money. I'll let it ride.

Agree, my friend who is seroiusly invested, several years ago when we had a weird market i was asking if he was selling and he laughed and said you dont sell in a down market you buy and id asume hell be buying up stock in the coming weeks

 

[slimmer13]

That makes total sense. I am old so cashed out and am using it up in lieu of going on SS.

Common knowledge, but in case anyone doesn't know, as we get closer to retirement, we should be moving money from higher risk, more aggressive options, to safer, lower risk ones to insulate ourselves from these types of events.

 

[Unicykle]

After almost 2 hrs in traffic today driving thru this sea of stupidity and incompetence im almost rooting for the virus.

 

[Gunflint1]

After almost 2 hrs in traffic today driving thru this sea of stupidity and incompetence im almost rooting for the virus.

Mandatory driving skill testing..You Will be taking a BuS for now on !!

 

[Unicykle]

Mandatory driving skill testing..You Will be taking a BuS for now on !!

Ill take any test they got, dad had me racing go carts since i was 12, moved me to FF in scca and cascade when i was 18 and i raced in OMRRA for several seasons and still do 6-9 trackdays a year on my bikes so im pretty sure im not the problem.

 

[Alexx1401]

Mandatory driving skill testing..You Will be taking a BuS for now on !!

I have LONG wished they would do this. Get in a wreck because you were trying to write on your phone while heading down the road? It should be treated just like drunk driving. Run from Cops in a car? Should be life time ban on being behind the wheel for life. After ban get caught? Should be just the same as if they caught them with an illegal gun.

 

[jayR]

i just got back from walmart and the shelves are fully stocked not one thing was "out" and nobody was panic buying.

Did some recon too; likewise things generally seem normal. Perhaps those websites reflect behavior overall vs. local conditions. Dunno. my conjecture. Money's on a hockey stick shaped demand curve at some point..

 

[Geardo]

I am splitting my tax return 3 ways.

Ammo

Daily essentials

Stocks



Hedge my bets both directions.

 

[powersbj]

Buy some Netflix stock cause theres gonna be some binges with peeps hiding indoors.

 

[Gunflint1]

Ill take any test they got, dad had me racing go carts since i was 12, moved me to FF in scca and cascade when i was 18 and i raced in OMRRA for several seasons and still do 6-9 trackdays a year on my bikes so im pretty sure im not the problem.

Lol..l'm sure that's fact...But there are those who really should be taking a bus..

 

[Dwesson]

with a 3.5% fatality rate with what test have been done, many places quarantining areas,first confirmed case that was a community spread in the US, an ill prepared government. I'd rather prepare for the doom and gloom. All tho I'm just getting extras of stuff that'll be good for years and stuff that we would use anyways.

The fatality rate is based on confirmed cases so that isn't entirely accurate to compare it to say the normal flu (Influenza A/B)

For example:

How many times have you had the flu in your life?
How many of those times have you hospitalized and tested positive for it?

As a result the fatality rate for common influenza uses an extrapolation as the denominator not confirmed cases. They estimate the number of people that contract the flu annually and they have a firm number for the numerator (confirmed deaths) because it's trivial to test for it, and they certainly will if you are so sick you are near death.

For the novel coronavirus something like 80-85% of the cases are extremely mild, to the point that the individual is not likely to even consider themselves that ill, especially if they are < 70 years old. This is also aiding in it's spread (along with the long incubation time, ease of transmission and ability to survive on fomite surfaces).

If you actually look at the apples to apples comparison in mortality, it's probably not too far off regular influenza. The panic over this virus is largely being perpetuated by the media and China's lack of transparency.

if you want to see real world results, take a look at Singapore.

 

[Medic!]

Common knowledge, but in case anyone doesn't know, as we get closer to retirement, we should be moving money from higher risk, more aggressive options, to safer, lower risk ones to insulate ourselves from these types of events.

I here you. But it's tuff when 10 year and 30 year bonds are at there all time lows.

So goes faith in the U.S. .

 

[Kruel J]

If you actually look at the apples to apples comparison in mortality, it's probably not too far off regular influenza. The panic over this virus is largely being perpetuated by the media and China's lack of transparency.

if you want to see real world results, take a look at Singapore.

Some of the posts in this thread don't help either.

 

[Dwesson]

Does this happen with normal flu viruses?

Yes it's not unheard of. Your body generates antibodies but if you subject yourself to a high viral load just after getting over the disease and/or have comorbidities that can aid re-infection it can happen.

Think of your household when you get the flu. Usually your spouse sleeps on the couch or a separate room, you wash all the sheets etc. Now take a country with extremely dense populations and in the case of say China, different hygiene standards it's probably fairly common for someone to get "released" from the hospital as "cured" return to a very cramped apartment they are sharing with younger, healthier people that are also infected but still shedding massive amounts of the virus and get re-infected.

 

[Dwesson]

Some of the posts in this thread don't help either.

Yeah there's a lot of misinformation, and it's easy to panic when it's something unknown/you can't control.

Could you imagine the level of panic if the media reported on the normal influenza infections/mortality every year?

 

[Cavedweller]

For the novel coronavirus something like 80-85% of the cases are extremely mild,

That leaves 15-20% of cases who must be hospitalized due to severe pneumonia. This is fairly consistent from country to country. Not the case with normal flu.

Why do I feel like a broken record?

 

[Dwesson]

That leaves 15-20% of cases who must be hospitalized due to severe pneumonia. This is fairly consistent from country to country. Not the case with normal flu.

Why do I feel like a broken record?

You're taking the % of the wrong number.

15-20% of CONFIRMED cases not total and they aren't all being hospitalized for severe pneumonia. They are being hospitalized for quarantine reasons. Look at the cruise ship, there's 600+ people on there that are basically just being watered and fed.

If you have evidence 20% of those folks are suffering from severe pneumonia I'd like to see it. You also have to consider that this virus impacts people > 70 years old and with comorbidity much higher. It would be interesting to know the age range of those people on that cruise ship, but just assuming 15-20%, we should see at least 120 people with severe pneumonia.

How many total cases of the flu are there every year?

The CDC estimates there are 30-40MM (rounding) resulting in:

13-19MM visits

280-500K hospitalizations

Again look at Singapore's data for a 1st world country response, link here:

Singapore Data

 

[Unicykle]

Lol..l'm sure that's fact...But there are those who really should be taking a bus..

I scream that out the window several times a drive usualy accompanied with the finger.. lol

 

[OldTengu]

I am splitting my tax return 3 ways.

Ammo

Daily essentials

Stocks



Hedge my bets both directions.

I did not buy stock.
I bought Glock.