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Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

wp4

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I have only read a few comments so hopefully this is not a repeat.
The 1918 flu killed 20 to 100 million people in ONE YEAR (estimates vary), that's somewhere between 55,000 and 275,000 people per day world wide. :eek:
The 2020 coronavirus has been ramping up for a couple of months at least. It has killed less than 2,800 so far, none in the US to date.
From a graph of the number of cases over time, it looks to me like the number is flattening out:


CDC says fewer than 2500 deaths:


I'd take normal precautions against getting a cold or flu, but this does not look like a big problem.
The problem is, many are very sceptical of China's numbers. They haven't been updating the totals consistently these last few days, and even though they recently had several new epicenters of infection, they aren't showing very much officially tallied growth compared to what happened in Wuhan. So the numbers are flattening out because (many like myself believe) they want everyone to just go back to work, and the world to stop looking at them so closely.

That, and they have changed their criteria for testing several times, and they are apparently running short on testing kits/supplies/ability.

Even the tests themselves aren't that accurate according to medical sources - some people have been riddled with pneumonia and come back all clear several times, only to finally get a positive result the 4th or 5th time testing. Others have "recovered", been symptom free and show all clear, sent home, and get symptomatic again. China now tests twice on different days before releasing a patient.

South Korea, Japan, and Italy are showing fast growth, which contradicts the current narrative out of China.

Many, including myself, think China originally kept a lid on this to not scare off foreign investing, and are now probably putting their own economic stability ahead of aggressively fighting the spread of the virus - and plus if it spreads to the rest of the world, it will no longer matter as much that the virus is in China (not implicating they spread it on purpose, rather calling out their own ineptitude)

If we look at Western countries for more accurate info, it looks like it is spreading very quickly, and has a death rate between 2-3%. The season flu death rate is 0.1 - 0.2, somewhere in there.

The 1918 pandemic had similar mortality rates as this new coronavirus.

Also, in 15-20% of cases pneumonia develops, which has overwhelmed medical facilities. The same will happen here if/ when it takes off.

It also looks like reinfection is possible, and the second time it can cause serious cardiac issues - that isn't substantiated medically yet, but there seems to be lots of anecdotal evidence. (Also many strange videos of perfectly fine looking people dropping dead in their tracks in Wuhan... cardiac arrest seems plausible to me)

Finally, some of the countries this seems to be getting into (Iran, African nations, Afghanistan, etc) do not have the proper testing resources at this time. So it's a big ? as to what the real numbers are. There are probably many more than the official count this far.
 
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With so many relying on the internet for medical advice, bad and good. Results may be even worse than 1918.

"I ain't gonna get my kid vaccinated, it'll make him stupid!". Trust me it isn't the vaccine, it's genetics.
I must say the internet is an excellent tool for research. One can look up the Vaccine Court and learn how people injured by vaccines caused the court's creation - to protect drug companies from the damage caused by their products. You can also research how a "senior scientist from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ... confessed on the internet that he and five of his colleagues had committed fraud on their 2004 Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine study when they covered-up the fact that the vaccine was causally associated with autism."

Medical experts do the best they can but economic concerns often trump scientific concerns as we see with the coronavirus too.
 

wp4

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The 1918 flu killed 20 to 100 million people in ONE YEAR (estimates vary), that's somewhere between 55,000 and 275,000 people per day world wide.
In my previous reply to your post I forgot to mention that the 1918 flu was more deadly in it's second and third waves than it's first.

To compare that to where we are right now, 2 months in on the first wave is IMHO apple's and orange's. Comparing after 1 year will be much more accurate, because this coronavirus could have a steeper climb rate of mortality than now in it's second and beyond waves (if that ends up happening at all).

Also - the 1918 pandemic was the worst in recorded human history. To use that as the benchmark for concern about this virus is a little unfair.
We could have something going on now that doesn't end up being as bad in per-capita percentage numbers, but bad enough to warrant preperation!
 
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wp4

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I just want to remind everyone that even the CDC today is telling everyone to prepare for this to be a pandemic, with community spread throughout the USA, possible severe disruption of daily life, and it's no longer a question of if but when this occurs.

 
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wp4

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There are thousands of people entering this country from China every day. At any given time you can look up on FlightRadar24 and find a dozen or more aircraft, heavies, or wide bodies 300 plus people on each plane flying to various US destinations.

Hajien Airlines or what ever airlines flies a 787 Dreamliner from Bejing to Las Vegas about 4 times a week. Again, probably 350 people on that plane, going to a destination where travelers all over the world go and then return home, exposed to who knows whatever. There has been much more exposure to all this already.

What the real thing here is, that the media, and in particular WSJ, Bloomberg (go figure azzhole), MSNBC and all the other MSM trash purveying outlets have managed to get the market to react to these fabricated supply chain disruptions, and have precipitated the last two days of down markets. This allows the institutional investors and the shorts to take advantage of fluctuating prices on stocks, like Apple, Google, Disney and those with strong international operations in China. There have been huge profits taken and there will be even larger profits taken when the market comes back up. When you see Apple down $ 5 a share, the institutional investors will buy hard and double their money or more on millions of dollars in trades, when Apple comes back $ 10 higher.

The corona virus is real, but not the plague some make it out to be. This is pure and a simple a very successful media manipulation by the financial hacks that spew the bullsh*t I read in my stock feed every day. I am just a small time investor who has managed to do pretty good the last couple of years, but the minute the hacks scream " go to gold, equities are tanking" you know they are trying to move the market and it has worked very well this time. See it for what it is, otherwise MSM would not be reporting it.

So I took a position in Dollar General yesterday, no international exposure, serving markets the chains can't or will not serve. We will see what happens. You have a better chance of dying from the regular flu than you do of some obscure virus from China.

Just for an example, this is a Emirates Airbus 380 from Dubai to San Francisco. Probably 400 people on this plane. It flies over my place in Central Oregon 3 times a week on that flight. That is how many people move around this world on any given day.

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This is an excellent post, and I whole heartedly agree.

However, there are now many other areas than China that are new epicenters of infection and are taking this very seriously. I doubt there is a global plan among governments to manipulate the markets, and try to hurt trump politically.

While I agree the MSM takes advantage of every angle to hurt trump and sell the news, and manipulate markets, I personally think there is something going on that warrants preparation, especially if you or your family members are more susceptible to complications if they got sick (diabetes, asthma, cancer, pregnant, etc)

Even if you think the virus itself is a nothing burger, you should have at least a few weeks of food, because the panic will temporarily make everything disappear off grocery shelves in your neighborhood if someone in it gets diagnosed with covid-19. Look to Italy as the most recent example of that.

Edit - when I say "you", I mean everyone here, even though I replied to your post. :s0155:
 
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Alexx1401

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This is an excellent post, and I whole heartedly agree.

However, there are now many other areas than China that are new epicenters of infection and are taking this very seriously. I doubt there is a global plan among governments to manipulate the markets, and try to hurt trump politically.
I too VERY much doubt there is any kind of global plan. I would bet this got out by accident. This is why China at first tried to cover it up until it was too late. Now it's out there. The panic, now that is a whole different game. How many people in the US have died from this so far? Last I heard it was zero. How many people have died in the US so far from this years run of the Flu? Last I heard it was several K. Happens every year. The people who die from this new bug are the same people who die from the flu here. Very young, very old, very sick. Soon they will have a "flu shot" vaccine for this virus too. In the mean time many K will die in countries that do not have the kind of medical system we have here. The same medical system that a LOT of people go on the news daily to say it's not fair we have or how it sucks here. Selling panic works because humans want it to be true. Tell those in panic that there is nothing to panic about, that no one here has died yet, they do not want to believe it so they don't. Put up a website saying no one here is doing anything and the same people who want to panic will flock too it and lap it up because they want it to be true. Tell people that the store shelves will soon be empty and guess what happens? The shelves are soon empty because people made it happen. Soon this bug will have run it's course, we will have a vaccine for it and people will flock to another panic. Not to mention someone will put up a website saying the vaccine to this bug is causing some kind of disease or such and a bunch of the panic stricken will believe that too. So the herd runs from one panic to the next screaming the sky is falling. :eek:
 

Catherine1

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C'MON PEOPLE...

Ive been busy the last few hours and didn't see what was posted before it was deleted, but we have to knock this crap off. Now it's flagged for closure.

I, and many others on here appreciate the news others bring here. I appreciate the views on that news that folks post here, on both sides of the coin. I use this specific thread as a good part of my news intake/ feed.

Please don't get this thread closed.
This!

I missed what was deleted too.

I would like this thread to stay open.

Cate
 
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Question.
Can’t we shut down all travel to and from China?
No. We have a global trade relationship with China that would set us back several decades in tech if we had to shut down travel to and from China. Additionally, COVI-19 is in over several dozens nations already. It’s already here in the US. Due to it’s epidemiology being so similar to virus that cause various chest colds and severe respiratory symptoms, it spreads faster and more efficiently. If you’re reasonably healthy and not immune compromised you should be fine. Eventually we will all get exposed to it and build up a natural immunity to it. Same as the common cold. Hopefully it does not mutate into something worse, which is a possibility, but unlikely to be any more damaging than it already is. We believe it’s 2% mortality is a stretch but we won’t really know until the “pandemic” runs its course. Flu killed over 80,000 IS citizens last year, and I would be no more concerned with COVI-19. Sadly the companies selling Flu vaccines are targeting the strains which requires perfect forecasting, when they get the regional strains wrong lots of vulnerable people die. They could have targeted the root of the Flu types. Hopefully with COVI-19 they don’t pull the same stunt, unless it’s scientifically unreadable to do so. I would not worry about it unless you or a family member is high risk, in which case you can prepare for the virus by eating a healthier diet, getting more exercise, and having a medical provider and supplies prepared for a (40) day quarantine.
 
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I agree with most opinions here. It is political. But the Bible states we will see many of these type of sicknesses killing lots of humans.
I’m just thinking the new normal will be much different than today’s soon.
I also feel public schools will swing way towards churches and home school situations. Amazon and alike will grow beyond conception.
 
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Nothing would have really mattered on our part. Like it or not, the world is a global economy, people fly everywhere all the time. There's a 10 day incubation period part of which you show no symptoms but are contagious. China thought they could contain it initially, and didn't understand i what it was, so it really screwed the pooch early on. There was a global sales conference in Singapore that hosted 109 people from around the globe - someone left the conference infected - it got out, game over.


The "upside" on this is that the mortality rate is only (c) 2%. That's extremely low. SARS virus of 2003 had an 11% mortality rate - over 3x as lethal. Countries that have bad health systems will experience higher mortality rates of course. At this point, prepare to get sick or have services interrupted because of the number of sick people. Usual planning stuff - 2 weeks of food/water, self sufficiency, etc. IF you get sick, see a Dr. (or call your local clinic for advice) and get anti-virus medication.
as a financial recommendation - the stock market tanked the past couple days = opportunity to buy low. it will come back. (today its +380 already).
bottom line, stay safe, stay prepared and ignore the paranoia.

Question.
Can’t we shut down all travel to and from China?
 

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