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Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

Kruel J

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Another point I would like to counter, is the outrageous assumption by some that this is an escaped bioweapon.

It is true there is a possibility , although remote, this is a man made virus strain. Labs make viruses all the time. There are actually specialized labs all over the world whose soul purpose is to create designer viruses to sell to big Pharma to play with and test vaccines. On the other hand, this would be a very poor bio weapon due to its close proximity requirement, susceptibility to uv and disinfectant, and lack of persistence. It also isn't virulent enough. Anthrax and measles derivatives are a far better choice. You can liken calling this a bioweapon to calling an AR an actual assault weapon. Its too big of a stretch.
Must have been made on a Friday afternoon. :D
 
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  • Outdoor Cleanup - 2018
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Another point I would like to counter, is the outrageous assumption by some that this is an escaped bioweapon.

It is true there is a possibility , although remote, this is a man made virus strain. Labs make viruses all the time. There are actually specialized labs all over the world whose soul purpose is to create designer viruses to sell to big Pharma to play with and test vaccines. On the other hand, this would be a very poor bio weapon due to its close proximity requirement, susceptibility to uv and disinfectant, and lack of persistence. It also isn't virulent enough. Anthrax and measles derivatives are a far better choice. You can liken calling this a bioweapon to calling an AR an actual assault weapon. Its too big of a stretch.
Oh, man. You have just stepped in it. Good luck. LOL
 
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Another point I would like to counter, is the outrageous assumption by some that this is an escaped bioweapon.

It is true there is a possibility , although remote, this is a man made virus strain. Labs make viruses all the time. There are actually specialized labs all over the world whose soul purpose is to create designer viruses to sell to big Pharma to play with and test vaccines. On the other hand, this would be a very poor bio weapon due to its close proximity requirement, susceptibility to uv and disinfectant, and lack of persistence. It also isn't virulent enough. Anthrax and measles derivatives are a far better choice. You can liken calling this a bioweapon to calling an AR an actual assault weapon. Its too big of a stretch.
For the sake of discussion, a lot of fail in your assumptions. Yes, we all know there are biolabs globally. That's not like a big lightbulb revelation to us. Yes, we also know big Pharma develops vaccines. Also not news.

Your suggestion it can't be a bioweapon assumes it's the "best" bioweapon ever engineered or available. Or that it has been engineered perfectly. Perhaps, however, it's not a top tier bio weapon, or that it has features which purposefully conceal it to appear as a somewhat normal pneumonia. A lesser bioweapon could be developed and escaped. In other words, why can only the "best" bioweapons be developed and escape?

Just like there are different designs and tiers of conventional weapons, so too would there be different tiers of biological weapons for different purposes. This might be a mid-grade, uncompleted, still experimental, etc. design. This might not be the high capacity semi auto AR15 weapon bioweapon equivalent. It might be the single shot break open shotgun equivalent of bioweapons. Keep in mind, also, China's abilities are almost certainly behind US abilities. I think we have like 12 bioweapons labs, and China has only the Wuhan labs to my understanding.

Next, it's apparently done a fairly effective job at spreading and killing. Wouldn't you agree? The epicenter is, very coincidentally, Wuhan China. China is in dis-array, crippling their economy, and tying up massive resources. If we accept the numbers, and nobody does, 75000 were infected. ~20,000 cases resolved, and over 2200 dead. So an 11% fatality rate based on figures so far. Spread pretty effectively effected and killed nearly as many as 9/11/01, and their economy is going to be badly injured. Seems like a effective weapon to me... And those figures are probably really under-reported and I've seen models suggesting many times infection and death numbers.

It is aerosol, according to experts. It has spread into and thru quarantined cabins on cruise ships, and across hotel floors thru sewage lines and the only explanation is aerosol. It has incubated for up to 24 days in some cases. And it has survived a reported 9 days exposed to air. It has high critical care rate, ~20% according to published figures. That ties up medical resources. It has a 11% fatality rate, making it very deadly. This combination makes it a very desirable bio-weapon. Maybe not the best ever made, but remarkably effective from my foxhole.

Next point, in ALL of China, it starts in Wuhan. China is a massive nation, and the globe is a massive place, and bats are everywhere; isn't it just remarkable that this really nasty virus with excellent bioweapon qualities could originate anywhere in the world with overcrowding and dirty cities and bats; yet Wuhan is the epicenter. What a remarkable coincidence.:rolleyes:
 
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Still waiting to here logical arguments why it "cannot be a biological engineered virus" aka bioweapon.

1. Governments certainly make them and have used bio/chem weapons historically. Smallpox, Anthrax, Mustard gas, RX, Ricin, etc. There's nothing that says it can't have been made.

2. It's a fact Wuhan is the location of Chinese high level biolabs.

3. Governments are routinely careless with resources and power and weapons. Weapons get stolen, lost, etc. routinely. And nuclear power - which should be handled with great care - result in accidents. Chernobyl and Fukishima come to mind.

4. Governments do their best to coverup disasters. Chernobyl comes to mind.

5. Humans have intermingled with bats for thousands of years. Why is this "bat to human" jump just now happening?

I'm open to hearing counter information, but in terms of a far-fetched theory the "bat soup" theory is the hokey theory IMO. If it were just a naturally occurring virus I would believe China would welcome assistance in stopping it.
 

Kruel J

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Still waiting to here logical arguments why it "cannot be a biological engineered virus" aka bioweapon.

1. Governments certainly make them and have used bio/chem weapons historically. Smallpox, Anthrax, Mustard gas, RX, Ricin, etc. There's nothing that says it can't have been made.

2. It's a fact Wuhan is the location of Chinese high level biolabs.

3. Governments are routinely careless with resources and power and weapons. Weapons get stolen, lost, etc. routinely. And nuclear power - which should be handled with great care - result in accidents. Chernobyl and Fukishima come to mind.

4. Governments do their best to coverup disasters. Chernobyl comes to mind.

5. Humans have intermingled with bats for thousands of years. Why is this "bat to human" jump just now happening?

I'm open to hearing counter information, but in terms of a far-fetched theory the "bat soup" theory is the hokey theory IMO. If it were just a naturally occurring virus I would believe China would welcome assistance in stopping it.
If it was a bioweapon China would be the laughing stock of the world. I mean, they can make phones that have more power than most computers but they can't engineer a bug that actually kills with respectable authority? They'll never admit it even if it's true out of sheer embarrassment.

NK be like "our missiles at least work SOMETIMES!".
 
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I've been reading various articles on the topic on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists site tonight. I found this one interesting and figured I'd pass it along: If the coronavirus outbreak grows, can a strained US health care system keep up?
I've been concerned about that too. With the repeated caveat that we don't have good reliable numbers, from the numbers we do have roughly 20% of infected recover, 20% are *serious* medical cases, and 11% die. A highly contagious virus, which this is, resulting in 20% serious with 11% fatalities will possibly cripple our healthcare system.

If we simply "Import" China numbers to America, 75,000 infected translates to 15,000 serious cases. That's 300 per state on average. Do most states have 300 extra long-term quarantine ward beds? At 11% fatality rate, that's over 8000 deaths. That's over twice the casualties from 9/11/01...

I've watched many videos leaked from China that look legit. Many are from inside or the exterior of hospitals with full body bags stacked like cordwood in the building or outside or in waiting trucks. And I've seen many videos with medical staff simply collapsing (fatigue, exhaustion, or infection we don't know) or having a emotional breakdown and becoming ineffective (from overwork or PTS, we don't know).
 
OP
Hueco

Hueco

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If it was a bioweapon China would be the laughing stock of the world. I mean, they can make phones that have more power than most computers but they can't engineer a bug that actually kills with respectable authority? They'll never admit it even if it's true out of sheer embarrassment.

NK be like "our missiles at least work SOMETIMES!".
Nah, you got it wrong.

The real virus is a doozy and was created by the US.

This is a Chinese knock-off, just as cruddy as all Chinese knock-offs. :rolleyes:
 
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If it was a bioweapon China would be the laughing stock of the world. I mean, they can make phones that have more power than most computers but they can't engineer a bug that actually kills with respectable authority? They'll never admit it even if it's true out of sheer embarrassment.

NK be like "our missiles at least work SOMETIMES!".
Or, what if it turns out the real infection numbers are 5 million, and the real death count is 2 million?

China entirely controls the numbers it is releasing. They're less honest than Elizabeth Warren is about her heritage. :D
 

Kruel J

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Or, what if it turns out the real infection numbers are 5 million, and the real death count is 2 million?

China entirely controls the numbers it is releasing. They're less honest than Elizabeth Warren is about her heritage. :D
Or,.what if the coronavirus is really a genetic mutation designed to turn everyone into zombies? And those zombies somehow infiltrate the Chinese military and crack their nuclear launch codes and the earth becomes a radioactive wasteland? :rolleyes:


Damn, that would make a good movie. Or at least a good video game. :D
 

WWShooter

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That's the key question, isn't it?

If we learn it has certain features, perhaps men are more vulnerable, or smokers, or old people, or that children are naturally immune, etc. Or our labs might be able to reverse engineer or create a faster vaccine. I don't have the answers. I'm simply trying to share dialogue. I assume you are here for the same reason?
Okay, one last try.

I think it's important for the CDC and others in the government to figure out the source, as it might impact the search for treatments of the infected and the search for a vaccine.

But for those of us here, the source is irrelevant for a variety of reasons.

First, we simply don't have good information and probably won't for a period of weeks, months or years. The CCP isn't going to suddenly adopt a policy of transparency, so it's going to take a lot of digging and research to get a definitive answer and to find, if we ever do, patient zero.

Second, I'm not equipped to do any basic research into this virus, and doubt that many (any) others here are - for lack of both training, expertise, information and secure bio-hazard containment facilities. So where it came from is useless information for us here.

Third, whatever "features" this virus has will be displayed by the data collected from and about those who get sick and those who die. We don't need to know where it came from to get that data, particularly if there are widespread outbreaks outside of China. (However, many states in the US are asserting that reporting the number of cases is somehow a violation of patient privacy rights. If lots of nations take this approach, particularly western nations, data will be continue to be hard to come by.)

Fourth, I need to know how to protect me and mine from this virus, and what to do if any of me and mine contract it. Knowing where it came from isn't going to make that process any easier or harder.

Finally, for me, the largely unfounded speculation about the source in this thread tends to make me want to go to other sites where there are more fact based, data driven discussions about this virus. It's still potentially very early in the game, and separating the wheat from the chaff is difficult enough, without dumping more chaff in the mix.

So, I need to know how to avoid it, how to treat it at home, if possible, and how to prepare for it. For example, we make virtually no antibiotics in the US - they're mostly made in China and India. But this virus kills in part by reducing the body's resistance to bacterial pneumonia - so antibiotics are pretty crucial. In fact, most medications are made in China, not here. So, if you or members of your family are dependent on one or more medications, it might be wise to see if you can lay in a 90 day supply. Most PPE is made in China, try buying enough N95 masks for you and your family these days - they're not there. And if China decides it needs the antibiotics or PPE it makes more than we do - oops.

So as entertaining in a "golly look at that" way as discussions about where this virus came from may be, the answer to that question - which we won't know for a long time - is utterly irrelevant to any thoughtful action plan, and the noise of that speculative discussion drowns out and drives out useful information. YMMV.
 
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In seriousness, I've read reports summarized as follows. China made a active decision to stop the spread of the virus. Sounds great, right? The way they did this is to seal everyone in their homes, stop producing and releasing test kids, stop testing people, and stop treating people, and let the virus burn itself out, quietly.

Food for thought. Do you know, Wuhan - the epicenter - is a population of 11 million. That's larger than any single US city, and our closest is New York City with 9 million.

Anyone think only 2000 people died in Wuhan?

As they say, shoot, shovel, and shut up.

Remarkably how those infection rates stop climbing so fast, isn't it? Looks like it's all under control...

China controls all the information behind their firewall and we're just not getting reliable numbers of infected or dead from inside.
 
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Fine. Message received. Apparently shutting down conversation is better than just ignoring it if you don't want to participate. Clearly, people don't want any view that makes them uncomfortable. Could be productive dialogue, but whatever. Tapping out of this thread.

Hoping and praying for the best and that ya'll and your families endure.
 

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