"Collapse" Movie, you want to listen to this guy

[Silver Fox]

You know... an 8' wide x 8' tall x 40' long Connex/ISBU makes a great plat-from to insulate the inside and cost about $2400.00 delivered and better yet... it isn't a permanent structure so there are no building codes nor inspections. Passer-by's think you are a white trash-trailer park chicken coop/lawn mower storage box.

Just something to think about.

SF-

 

[Quick Action Jackson]

Let me start with saying that I haven't seen the movie, but It seems that the whole argument is based on a faulty premise. Peak oil just isn't going to happen in the United States in the foreseeable future. Not only does the US have massive oil reserves (3-4.3 billion barrels) beneath Montana and South Dakota, it also has massive natural gas accumulations. Let's not assume that just because we have built our nation on a particular energy source, we have no alternatives. Oil isn't our primary energy source because we have an addiction to it, its our primary source because its practical and fairly inexpensive. It gets the job done, just like coal did during the industrial revolution (and it still does to this day, after all 50% of our energy comes from coal). As the old saying goes, "necessity is the mother of invention". As oil becomes less and less economically feasible as a dependable energy source, an new/alternative source will begin to look more and more promising.

But here's another problem with the whole peak oil argument. Once you dig a little deeper, you'll find that its just Marxism recycled and repackaged as environmentalism. Some call them greenshirts. I can guarantee you the peak oil theory will be used against us, the common people, by politicians and government bureaucracies to further control our lives; just as the myth of AGW is being used to usher in more government regulations and more/higher taxes on goods and services we use everyday. We can either let supply and demand determine which energy sources are viable, or we can let politicians artificially determine which energy sources are viable through taxation and regulation while they make millions by investing in them.

I'm not calling anyone a marxist, or saying that the movie is a scam, I'm just saying that I think its wrong. I still want to see the movie though. It looks interesting.

 

[willseeker]

Let me start with saying that I haven't seen the movie, but It seems that the whole argument is based on a faulty premise. Peak oil just isn't going to happen in the United States in the foreseeable future. Not only does the US have massive oil reserves (3-4.3 billion barrels) beneath Montana and South Dakota, it also has massive natural gas accumulations. Let's not assume that just because we have built our nation on a particular energy source, we have no alternatives. Oil isn't our primary energy source because we have an addiction to it, its our primary source because its practical and fairly inexpensive. It gets the job done, just like coal did during the industrial revolution (and it still does to this day, after all 50% of our energy comes from coal). As the old saying goes, "necessity is the mother of invention". As oil becomes less and less economically feasible as a dependable energy source, an new/alternative source will begin to look more and more promising.

But here's another problem with the whole peak oil argument. Once you dig a little deeper, you'll find that its just Marxism recycled and repackaged as environmentalism. Some call them greenshirts. I can guarantee you the peak oil theory will be used against us, the common people, by politicians and government bureaucracies to further control our lives; just as the myth of AGW is being used to usher in more government regulations and more/higher taxes on goods and services we use everyday. We can either let supply and demand determine which energy sources are viable, or we can let politicians artificially determine which energy sources are viable through taxation and regulation while they make millions by investing in them.

I'm not calling anyone a marxist, or saying that the movie is a scam, I'm just saying that I think its wrong. I still want to see the movie though. It looks interesting.

Oil is and has not been economically viable for years now.

If we as a country have so much oil reserved under Montana, South Dakota, North Portland, whatever, how come we're overseas fighting for dibbs on Iraqi oil? We have for many years, on numerous administrations, buddied up to the Saudies, for what? Oil! and these are the same people that have abetted so called terrorists.

As far as the "mother of invention" scenario, this country is run by capitalistic lobbying through our elected officials. There is no way that the big oil producers will allow alternative energies to be produced at the expense of their profits. No way.

The Japaneze have been running trains at speeds of over...200MPH?! What?! yes, and they've been doing this for how long...over 25 YEARS?! What?!

Maybe Frank Zappa should have been in charge.

And so you think this is a green shirt agenda? I don't know where some of these monikers come from but they are self-agrandizing masoginistic prejudicial...OHHH you get the message.

When we label situations, we reduce the discussion to playground banter. I will not accept any referrences to liberal this, conservative that, green this, red that, you did it first, no you did it first! Sorry, I digress.

Now you make a good point that the government is slowly erroding away our freedoms. Yes, of course they are. We must take back our rights as citizens to have government serve us! not served up to government!

From gun rights to alternative energy to bringing our boys home! I want my country back!

 

[unionguy]

Doesn't anyone else remember that just over a year ago, gas shot up to $4 a gallon? It was up to $150 a barrel...and NO ONE was increasing production. Don't try and tell me OPEC had that much discipline...not to mention Russia etc.

Then, the worldwide economy crashed...and we still have gas at almost $3...during an economy the worst we've had since the Great Depression.

That tells me all I need to know that Peak Oil is happening. Watch when (if?) the economy gets going again...gas will shoot past $4 a gallon like nobodies business.

Don't buy Big Oils' lies...they will tell us we have enough oil right up until the pumps go dry. (If you need further convincing, why is BP and most other "oil" companies dramatically expanding their investment in clean energy technologies? Were they taken over by "greenshirts" or are they being good businessmen and know something they aren't telling the rest of us?)

And...I agree with Willseeker...the sooner America stops using labels against each other and just talk about the issues facing our nation...the better off we'll be.

For example, you ever notice how the media only talks politics in terms of whether the Dems or the Reps are "winning or losing"? How come they never dive deep into any issue? It's always a horserace report. You might want to look at how every...single...major...media...outlet...in America is owned by a huge megacorporation. Its as if the British East India Company owned every newspaper in America just prior to our Revolution.

 

[Stomper]

Here's a thought.... STOP VOTING THE SAME LOSER-SCHMUCKS INTO OFFICE TIME AFTER TIME!! (while you can still vote, that is) :nuts:

 

[Quick Action Jackson]

Oil is and has not been economically viable for years now.

If we as a country have so much oil reserved under Montana, South Dakota, North Portland, whatever, how come we're overseas fighting for dibbs on Iraqi oil? We have for many years, on numerous administrations, buddied up to the Saudies, for what? Oil! and these are the same people that have abetted so called terrorists.

As far as the "mother of invention" scenario, this country is run by capitalistic lobbying through our elected officials. There is no way that the big oil producers will allow alternative energies to be produced at the expense of their profits. No way.

The Japaneze have been running trains at speeds of over...200MPH?! What?! yes, and they've been doing this for how long...over 25 YEARS?! What?!

Maybe Frank Zappa should have been in charge.

And so you think this is a green shirt agenda? I don't know where some of these monikers come from but they are self-agrandizing masoginistic prejudicial...OHHH you get the message.

When we label situations, we reduce the discussion to playground banter. I will not accept any referrences to liberal this, conservative that, green this, red that, you did it first, no you did it first! Sorry, I digress.

Now you make a good point that the government is slowly erroding away our freedoms. Yes, of course they are. We must take back our rights as citizens to have government serve us! not served up to government!

From gun rights to alternative energy to bringing our boys home! I want my country back!

yes we have huge oil reserves in the US
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
sorry, but being in Iraq or befriending the Saudis doesn't change that.

My point was that freedoms will be eroded away under the guise of being "green". Just look at cap and trade and whats going on in Copenhagen . I don't really know why "big oil" would want to punish themselves with more regulation.

 

[willseeker]

Doesn't anyone else remember that just over a year ago, gas shot up to $4 a gallon? It was up to $150 a barrel...and NO ONE was increasing production. Don't try and tell me OPEC had that much discipline...not to mention Russia etc.

Then, the worldwide economy crashed...and we still have gas at almost $3...during an economy the worst we've had since the Great Depression.

That tells me all I need to know that Peak Oil is happening. Watch when (if?) the economy gets going again...gas will shoot past $4 a gallon like nobodies business.

Don't buy Big Oils' lies...they will tell us we have enough oil right up until the pumps go dry. (If you need further convincing, why is BP and most other "oil" companies dramatically expanding their investment in clean energy technologies? Were they taken over by "greenshirts" or are they being good businessmen and know something they aren't telling the rest of us?)

And...I agree with Willseeker...the sooner America stops using labels against each other and just talk about the issues facing our nation...the better off we'll be.

For example, you ever notice how the media only talks politics in terms of whether the Dems or the Reps are "winning or losing"? How come they never dive deep into any issue? It's always a horserace report. You might want to look at how every...single...major...media...outlet...in America is owned by a huge megacorporation. Its as if the British East India Company owned every newspaper in America just prior to our Revolution.

And so the plot sickens...I mean thickens

Dubai an isolated incident of overzealous development? Perhaps. Maybe even pardonable. (greed should not be judged too severely)

Giving the president the peace prize while continuing and escalating the war in Afganistan? Moronic and unacceptable. (not quite enough to serve time though)

Goldman Sachs looting our country for their profit? (absolutely criminal and I'd go as far as labeling them TERRORISTS!) There I resorted to name calling...and I'm not proud of it either.

In order to return this country to "survival" and not "collapse", yes, we must develop alternative energies, but more immediately, stop the monetary bleeding to the top. What possibly can these Wall Streeters be doing with Kabillions of Dollars?!

 

[willseeker]

Here's a thought.... STOP VOTING THE SAME LOSER-SCHMUCKS INTO OFFICE TIME AFTER TIME!! (while you can still vote, that is) :nuts:

Please read recent post by unionguy. It doesn't matter what official is voted in! Dems this Repubs that...same diff.

They're from the same party, the money party.


These elected leaders have no real power!

 

[willseeker]

yes we have huge oil reserves in the US
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
sorry, but being in Iraq or befriending the Saudis doesn't change that.

My point was that freedoms will be eroded away under the guise of being "green". Just look at cap and trade and whats going on in Copenhagen . I don't really know why "big oil" would want to punish themselves with more regulation.

Propaganda! Do the math!

Even if we could recover, see the headline "technically recoverable" 4 Billion barrels, that would only be about 200 days worth!

Look, the US consumes about 20 million barrels of oil a day, 4 billion barrels is Oh about 4000 million? OK. Divide 20 million per day into 4000 and you get 200? Yes/no? We have become a nation of sheeple, (dang it there I go again namecalling)

We believe the ******** they report to us when even elementary mathematics tells us otherwise!

To All, Please accept my apology for the use of inappropriate language. Thanks, Will

 

[willseeker]

 

[dobanion]

Again, this is stuff Ruppert has covered, in depth. Read some of his stuff, "Crossing the Rubicon" is an awesome book, and he has sources on everything. He debunks the whole BS scheme of so called reserves. It's nearly all made up. LOTS of it will take more energy to drill, pump, transport, refine, transport again, etc, to market than you get at the pump. Therefore it's as good as dirt for all practical reasons.

unionguy said it well, all you need to see peak oil is real is back your thinking up a few years and look at prices and demand. It's happening. At $150/barrel no one was upping production, because we ARE ALREADY PUMPING AS MUCH AS WE CAN, everywhere in the world. The Saudi elite's are lying to protect their collective asses from their own people.

Back to the thought of the "living off the land as a collective post-collapse/peak oil" debate.

Forget laws and building codes. Seriously. No where is governments affinity for using law to grease the wheels of commerce more profound.

I can't use dirt as a building material? "It's unsafe." For what, 99% of the history of Homo Erectus? I'm REQUIRED to use 1.5 gallons of DRINKING quality water to dispose of 6 ounces of sterile urine?

Ignore them, they are BS. The community in Missouri does at least 20 things I can think of that codes and laws regard as unsafe and illegal (in the 99% of the country where their laws go). And the place works fantastic. The best example of sustainable living I could imagine. You could turn off power, water, sewers, and make all the natural gas and oil disapear, and the place would keep on going like it always does. I suspect that guy I met there would still be making beer and trading it for vegetables. Their only problem I saw is most of them "didn't like guns" and they'd be kicked (or killed) off their land in a real SHTF scenario. I'm sure any group of us here wouldn't have that problem. Just so long as Lord Umoungous doesn't show up.

So my thought is, we have enough nice acreage, access to water, etc, and when the government can't afford to pay code enforcement officials anymore, we begin working. You know, before the looting and shooting in the cities starts. Stockpile materials for buildings, seeds for crops and make a plan. Form a community in waiting. If/when things go south, abandon the homes in the cities and move to the acreage.

I for one plan to keep working as long as I have my job, but if unemployment is 40% and I'm out of work and people are getting desperate I can walk away from all my stuff with an open mind, and place, and a plan.

From some initial research, I'm seeing lots of small farm land in Oregon/Washington that would work at about $5k per family, if you get 10-20 families to buy in.

 

[willseeker]

I can't use dirt as a building material? "It's unsafe." For what, 99% of the history of Homo Erectus? I'm REQUIRED to use 1.5 gallons of DRINKING quality water to dispose of 6 ounces of sterile urine?

Ignore them, they are BS. The community in Missouri does at least 20 things I can think of that codes and laws regard as unsafe and illegal (in the 99% of the country where their laws go). And the place works fantastic. The best example of sustainable living I could imagine. You could turn off power, water, sewers, and make all the natural gas and oil disapear, and the place would keep on going like it always does. I suspect that guy I met there would still be making beer and trading it for vegetables. Their only problem I saw is most of them "didn't like guns" and they'd be kicked (or killed) off their land in a real SHTF scenario. I'm sure any group of us here wouldn't have that problem. Just so long as Lord Umoungous doesn't show up.

.

You're right on D!

Most city, county, regional building departments are set up to follow narrow prescribed guidelines of acceptability.

No room for "out of the box" thinking. For instance; In their infinite wisdom, the city of PDX has asked the citizens to disconnect downspouts in response to flooding during storms.

But try to divert, french drain, recapture, dry well or whatever the same water and you have to submit reams of engineering diatribe that costs $$$, for what? to release them from having to think! No recourse here! They say(We wouldn't have allowed it but because they submitted thousands of dollars in blueprinting and calculations, I guess we'll have to accept)...thanks a lot!

Sorry maybe too cynical but been there...

Now the concept of owning firearms in said type of community is interesting.
Yes, the human element is unpredictable! Under stressfull situations, reactions are quite different than under hypothetical ramblings on the computer. What I'm saying now I would do if confronted in a life threatening situation, may be 180 degree from real world.

Back to the questionaire I was thinking about though, what are your feelings about firearms and what training have you had? This could be one of the criteria for inclusion. I don't see why rational human beings can't coexist with firearms. I run cocked and locked all day long and feel an accidental discharge is virtually nil. Now a conscious discharge is another matter.

Now tell me who is this Lord U?

 

[Stomper]

LOL... Lord U is that goalie mask wearing roid-head-schmuck in Mad Max (Road Warrior)....


As far as training... 8-yrs. in the Army... can set up defensive perimeters with overlapping fields of fire (a real buzz saw if you will)... "room-brooming" with full/semi-auto weapons and baseballs (grenades), along with med-long range marksmanship skills... aim small, miss small!!

 

[willseeker]

LOL... Lord U is that goalie mask wearing roid-head-schmuck in Mad Max (Road Warrior)....


As far as training... 8-yrs. in the Army... can set up defensive perimeters with overlapping fields of fire (a real buzz saw if you will)... "room-brooming" with full/semi-auto weapons and baseballs (grenades), along with med-long range marksmanship skills... aim small, miss small!!

YOU'RE IN!

 

[Quick Action Jackson]

Propaganda! Do the math!

Even if we could recover, see the headline "technically recoverable" 4 Billion barrels, that would only be about 200 days worth!

Look, the US consumes about 20 million barrels of oil a day, 4 billion barrels is Oh about 4000 million? OK. Divide 20 million per day into 4000 and you get 200? Yes/no? We have become a nation of sheeple, (dang it there I go again namecalling)

We believe the ******** they report to us when even elementary mathematics tells us otherwise!

To All, Please accept my apology for the use of inappropriate language. Thanks, Will

lol. Oil reserves aren't like a friggin' gold rush. No one is saying that we should just rely on a single oil reserve and all our problems will be solved.
The US gets most of its foreign oil from Canada, and then Mexico. Canada exports about 2 million barrels to the US per day, and Mexico exports 1.2 million. Saudi Arabia comes in 3rd at a little over 1 million barrels per day. And even though the US imports all this oil, It still exports 1 million barrels per day. The reserve would provide a substantial amount of oil.

For every dollar of gasoline we buy, 8% goes to "big oil" and 14% goes to big government. The government makes almost twice the amount of "big oil" for every gallon of gas sold. 50% of the cost is from crude oil. The crude oil price is determined by OPEC. All they have to do is decrease production or keep tankers from entering ports.

Unionguy: gas was 4 bucks a gallon because demand was at an all time high, not because the pumps are drying up. That's how supply and demand works.
If they keep the supply down, that increases demand, which means larger profit margins. It would be financially foolish for them to increase supply when they know demand will only decrease in the winter. It economics, not a giant conspiracy.

And no I'm not saying oil is an infinite resource. I'm just saying there isn't going to be a straight cliff dive in production. It will be a gradual decrease in production over the course of several decades.

People were saying the same thing about coal back in the day. somethings just don't change.

 

[willseeker]

Good post Q A Jackson.

No I also don't believe there will be a nose dive in production, but what do you think is going to happen in the next few decades?

They will manipulate the flow, impacting the cost of oil due to supply, based on the current demand. And yes, the price goes up.

I won't be too surprised to see $5 + a gallon in a year. Yes, I know speculation.

But this is exactly what a conspiracy is!

They play games like, not enough flow today! raise the price! Open the flow next week! Don't want to upset the sheeple too much. drop the price back down. It's not as simplistic as that but the manipulation is the same.

 

[Quick Action Jackson]

thanks. But from what I've seen, when we actually do reach peak oil, we will see slow declines of under 2% over the course of 20 years. That would be like a plane running low on fuel that needs to land soon rather than a plane that needs to make an immediate crash landing.

You're right though. Sometimes OPEC does manipulate flow to increase demand, but its not because there is a shortage of crude. Even when demand was high a few years ago, there was no shortage of crude, but rather a shortage of refining. Refineries can also increase demand because they often restrict the supply of fuel, whether it be a shortage of refineries or heavier environmental restrictions imposed by the government (EPA). We all know diesel is a bi-product of gasoline, so then how could it cost MORE? Well its because the EPA forces refineries to make ultra low sulfur diesel, which in turn increases the price.


Out of all the factors that control the price of fuel, the government is what worries me the most(cap and trade, "global warming" legislation, and the EPA).

 

[aslinged]

thanks. But from what I've seen, when we actually do reach peak oil, we will see slow declines of under 2% over the course of 20 years. That would be like a plane running low on fuel that needs to land soon rather than a plane that needs to make an immediate crash landing.

You're right though. Sometimes OPEC does manipulate flow to increase demand, but its not because there is a shortage of crude. Even when demand was high a few years ago, there was no shortage of crude, but rather a shortage of refining. Refineries can also increase demand because they often restrict the supply of fuel, whether it be a shortage of refineries or heavier environmental restrictions imposed by the government (EPA). We all know diesel is a bi-product of gasoline, so then how could it cost MORE? Well its because the EPA forces refineries to make ultra low sulfur diesel, which in turn increases the price.


Out of all the factors that control the price of fuel, the government is what worries me the most(cap and trade, "global warming" legislation, and the EPA).

You're missing the fact of the economic system being based on perpetual growth, fractional reserve banking and debt. The system must grow for it to continue. Decrease in supply instantly translates to turbulence in the whole global system. Right now you're seeing the so-called jagged decline marked by ups and downs in the economy. We are already at peak and this moment is one among many within those ups and downs of a general permanent decline in our standard of living, industrial production and population. Any failure to meet expansion, thus any decline in production at all, will result in systemic failure across the modern system of just in time globalization.

 

[Quick Action Jackson]

You're missing the fact of the economic system being based on perpetual growth, fractional reserve banking and debt. The system must grow for it to continue. Decrease in supply instantly translates to turbulence in the whole global system. Right now you're seeing the so-called jagged decline marked by ups and downs in the economy. We are already at peak and this moment is one among many within those ups and downs of a general permanent decline in our standard of living, industrial production and population. Any failure to meet expansion, thus any decline in production at all, will result in systemic failure across the modern system of just in time globalization.

I think you have it backwards here. We use less oil because of the economic downturn. There isn't as high as demand for oil, therefore we use less, therefore opec pumps less. Just because they pump less doesn't mean isn't there. We are not at peak oil... Its more like peak demand. What are people basing "peak oil" on?

 

[willseeker]

I think you have it backwards here. We use less oil because of the economic downturn. There isn't as high as demand for oil, therefore we use less, therefore opec pumps less. Just because they pump less doesn't mean isn't there. We are not at peak oil... Its more like peak demand. What are people basing "peak oil" on?

PEAK OIL: The following is taken from www.hubbertpeak.com

Theory:
It is widely accepted that oil is a finite resource; there are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource:

Production starts at zero;

Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;

Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted.

These simple rules were first described in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert, and apply to any relevant system, including the depletion of the world’s petroleum resources.

So, you two couldn't sleep last night?
Hope you weren't outside. Pretty darn icy! Take care driving out there!

It is stated by many forms of thought that there is a complement to everything.

IE:
Galileo: What comes up must...

Human nature: Good guys and...

Asian spirituality: Yin and...

Metaphysics: As above, so...

Black and...

Universal law states that everything follows the same path!
Everything in nature conforms to the equal and opposite reaction rule.
Even the universe itself must accept this rule. As the universe is expanding, it must also contract. Well...maybe a topic for some other time.

So "peak oil" is also following it's life course. Some believe that we have reached the top of production, others debunk.

Regardless, it cannot escape the law! It will come down!